Tengtai: The Pmission Coefficient Of Textile Price Will Not Exceed 10% When Labor Costs Rise.

Without considering other factors and considering only the increase in labor costs,

First, the labor force.

The impact of rising labor costs on the prices of agricultural products depends mainly on the increase in labor costs and the proportion of planting costs.

The increase in labor costs has a pmission coefficient of about 41% for grain prices.

According to the national compilation of data on the cost and income of agricultural products, the average proportion of labor cost per mu in the 2002-2007 years was 40.8% on average, and 39.9% in 2007. The average cost of two kinds of Oilseeds in the 2002-2007 years per capita was 49.2% in the whole country, 48.3% in 2007.

The proportion of labor cost of three kinds of grain per mu was 40%. Under other conditions, labor costs rose by 15% and grain planting costs increased by 6%.

In terms of 50% of the labor cost per mu of the two kinds of oil, the labor cost rose by 15% and the grain planting cost increased by 7.5% when other conditions remained unchanged.

According to the average proportion of grain and oilseeds planted area in 88.5:11.5 for 2002-2009 years, the cost of labor increased by 15%, and the cost of grain and oil cultivation increased by 6.17%.

First, the pmission coefficient of vegetable prices is about 40% when labor costs rise.

China's labor cost accounts for 40% of the cost of vegetable cultivation. Under other conditions, labor costs rose by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively, and vegetable prices rose 4%, 8% and 12% respectively.

In vegetable production, most of the current planting is still limited to family cultivation, with very little scale cultivation, and the labor force is only in busy farming season. Most of them are self employed.

Therefore, the impact of rising labor costs on vegetable prices is not very significant.

Secondly, the pmission coefficient of meat price will not exceed 10% when the cost of labor rises.

According to statistics, in 2008, the total cost of pig live in the whole country was 1290.18 yuan (scale 1263.88 yuan and scattered household 1316.17 yuan), among which: material cost and service charge 1160.45 yuan, accounting for 89.9% of total cost (1192.13 yuan for household scale, 94.3%), 1128.68 yuan for 85.8% households, 85.8% for labor cost, 128.59 yuan for labor cost, 9.97% for scale households, and $* for scattered households.

According to the Ministry of agriculture's investigation in 2008, "every chicken farmer made a profit of 1.1 yuan and made nearly 6 yuan in other links". The cost of breeding a chicken is 24.74 yuan, of which the labor cost is 0.73 yuan, and the direct cost of chicken seedling, feed, epidemic prevention and coal electricity is 23.56 yuan. The indirect cost of the poultry house depreciation and maintenance is 0.44 yuan, and the land cost is 0.01 yuan.

The proportion of labor cost is only 2.95%, less than 3%.

In this way, the rise in labor costs has a far lower impact on the cost of broiler farming than that of live pigs.

Therefore, we calculated the proportion of labor cost to pig breeding cost by 10%, and the cost per worker rose by 10% and the cost of pig and poultry increased by 1%.

Other meat cultivation such as cattle and sheep breeding, labor costs accounted for a relatively low proportion, generally does not exceed 10% of the cost of pig farming, labor costs rise has little effect on the price of meat, poultry and eggs.

Thirdly, the pmission coefficient of food costs is about 27% of the increase in labor costs.

The weighted average of grain, meat and vegetable prices has increased labour costs by 10% and food prices by 2.7%.

Second, the increase in labor costs will not exceed 10% of the pmission coefficient of industrial prices.

The rise in labor costs has little effect on the prices of industrial products.

From the data of input-output basic flow table (intermediate part) in 2007, the proportion of laborers' remuneration in the composition of industrial products is very low. The proportion of labor intensive textile and garment industry is 8.6%, and the proportion of capital intensive coking and petrochemical industry is only 5.5%.

If labor costs rise by 10%, the factory prices of manufactured goods will not rise by more than 1%, the highest non-metallic mineral products industry will increase by about 0.96%, the textile and garment industry will increase by about 0.86%, and the coking and petrochemical industry will increase by 0.54%.

Third, the pmission coefficient of labor cost rises to service price is about 21%.

The rise in labor costs has little effect on service prices.

From the data of input-output basic flow table in 2007, the proportion of remuneration of competitive services such as construction, pportation, commerce, catering, accommodation and other workers in the cost structure is relatively low, generally less than 15%, and the financial industry is higher than the salary ratio of 17.9%. The proportion of non competitive industries such as education, health, public management and other industries is even higher, accounting for 32.9%.

If labor costs rise by 10%, the price rise of other third industries will not exceed 2% unless the price of other services increases by 3.3%.

Service prices are less affected by rising labor costs.

According to the weights of employment in various industries in the first economic census in 2004, the average proportion of workers' remuneration in the above service industry is 20.8%.

In this way, labor costs rose by 15% and service prices rose by 3.12%.

Fourth, the rising labor cost has a pmission coefficient of about 20% for China's CPI price.

It is estimated that under other circumstances, labor costs will rise by 10%, 15% and 20%, and CPI in China will rise by 1.99, 2.98 and 3.98 percentage points respectively.

Labor productivity improves the impact of rising labor costs on the price of 1/3

First, there is much room for labour saving.

According to the research of the State Council Development Research Center in Bao Ping, there is much room for saving labor in China.

In 2010, the cost of wheat production in Jiangsu constituted 316.84 yuan for material and service, accounting for 74.18%, and labor cost 110.27 yuan, 25.82%.

Due to no tillage technology and mechanized operation, the labor cost of wheat production in Jiangsu rose from 78 yuan in 2001 to 110.27 yuan in 2010, accounting for a downward trend.

After 2003, the total output value and added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in China continued to grow, but the number of employed persons continued to decrease, a total decrease of about 81000000 in 8 years, and a decrease of 22% in 2010 compared with 2002.

We can see that there is much room for saving labor.

Second, labor productivity increases to curb the impact of rising labor costs on prices.

Labor productivity increases and unit labor costs continue to decline, which can considerably inhibit the impact of rising labor costs on prices.

In 2007 -2010, the average growth rate of labor productivity in the one or two industry (arithmetic average) was 7.7% and the third industry average was 8.4%. If the labor cost increased by 15%, the impact of labor cost of more than 50% on price will be inhibited by the increase of labor productivity.

That is, if the logistics cost is reduced by 10%, it will be about 700 billion yuan, which is equivalent to about 1/3 of the increase in labor remuneration in 2010.

This means that if the cost of logistics falls by 10%, the impact of rising labor costs on prices can be further reduced to 1.19%.

If the cost of logistics falls by 20% to 15% of the new GDP, the impact of rising labor costs on prices will be further reduced to about 0.59%.

From the middle of November 2010, we stopped collecting fresh agricultural products and highway charges and other measures to suppress the immediate effect of vegetable prices. We think that the logistics cost has dropped by 15%, and further inhibiting the impact of rising labor costs on price 50% is possible, that is, the cost of circulation links is down, which is equivalent to 15% of the logistics cost, which further reduces the impact of labor costs on CPI to 0.89%.

Only considering the proportion of labor costs and raising labour productivity without considering labour productivity, the cost of labor rose by 15%, and the impact on prices was 2.98%.

Considering the effect of labor productivity increase on prices, labor costs rise by 15%, and the impact on prices is not more than 1.5%.

Measured by the total output growth of the primary industry, the price rise of about 1/3 is suppressed.

The improvement of labor productivity in the primary industry is based on the continuous decrease in employment, and the total output growth is not fast.

Therefore, the growth rate of agricultural output should be used to measure the impact of labor productivity on the rise in labor costs.

In the past 2007-2009 years and three years, the total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery has increased by an average of 4.7%, which is equivalent to 15% of the 1/3 of labor costs. Considering the effect of labor productivity increase on prices, the impact of rising labor costs on prices is not more than 2%.

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Profit elasticity restraining the impact of rising labor costs on prices

First, excessive competition inhibits the profit margins of industrial suppliers.

The price of China's manufacturing industry is affected by the market structure of overcapacity and perfect competition.

There are many manufacturing enterprises in China, and most of them are small businesses. Even in Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size, most of them are small businesses.

However, compared with small enterprises, large and medium-sized enterprises have little difference in profit margin and per capita business income.

This means that China's manufacturing industry has the characteristics of large profit elasticity and low price elasticity. Once the price of manufacturing products rises slightly, a large number of enterprises will increase in a short period of time, and prices will come down.

It is not difficult to understand that since 2002, not only the price of labor has risen rapidly, but also the price of international commodities has skyrocketed, but prices of household appliances, computers, textiles and clothing, automobiles, foodstuffs and furniture have remained stable, and prices of computers, automobiles and household appliances have also declined.

Second, the impact of agricultural subsidies on the prices of agricultural products is obvious.

Grain inventory is an important factor to curb grain prices.

Since 2004, the state has steadily raised the minimum grain purchase price in successive years.

At present, China's grain consumption ratio of nearly 40% is far higher than the internationally recognized 17% warning line.

When the world food crisis happened in 2008, the international grain price was about 2 times that of the domestic grain price. In 2010, the grain market price situation at home and abroad was opposite to that in 2008. The prices of the three main staples of rice, wheat and corn were generally higher than that of the international grain prices, thus reducing the possibility of international price increase going to the country.

Agricultural subsidies inhibit the rise in grain prices.

Since 2004, China has abolished the "four tax" and all kinds of additional agricultural specialties, agricultural taxes, and so on except for tobacco leaf. Every year, the burden of farmers in the whole country is reduced by about 125 billion yuan.

In 2009, the central government allocated four subsidies to 123 billion 80 million yuan, and the subsidies for rice, wheat, corn and cotton improved varieties were fully covered.

In 2011, the central government allocated 133 billion 490 million yuan for the four subsidies (direct grain subsidies, comprehensive agricultural subsidies, improved seed subsidies and agricultural machinery purchase subsidies) to the farmers, up 12.8% from the 2010 budget.

Agricultural subsidies have become an important source of farmers' income. They can partly offset the impact of rising labor costs on prices and curb the rising prices of agricultural products.

Third, the profit margin of suppliers will be reduced by 15%, and the impact on CPI will be reduced from 2% to 1.78%.

According to the 2007 input-output table, the average operating surplus (profit rate) of all industries (industries) was 9.8%, postal -6.6%, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery 0, public management and social organizations 0.02%, gas 2.33%, water supply 2.63%, waste waste up to 78.7%, financial industry 42.3%, and oil and natural gas extraction 27.5%.

Based on the average operating surplus of 9.8% in each industry, if the competition is fierce or the labor cost is rising rapidly, most industries still have profit compression space except for 5 industries, such as agriculture, postal service, gas supply, water supply and public management.

Therefore, in order to hedge the rise in labour costs and reduce profit margins by 15% to 8.33%, most industries can still afford them.

In 2007, the proportion of laborers' remuneration (total output) in the input-output table was 13.44%. If the supplier's profit margin dropped by 15%, the proportion of laborers' remuneration decreased by 10.9%, it could restrain the influence of 10.9% of the rising labor cost on the price.

Therefore, considering the elasticity of the supplier's profit, if the labor cost rises by 15%, the impact on the price can be further reduced to 1.78%.

There is no obvious correlation between the rise of labor cost and the rise in prices in China.

Whether the rise of labor cost can form price rise depends on the proportion of labor cost, the change of labor productivity, the elasticity of supplier's profit and the profit elasticity of circulation.

One filter: labor cost pmission coefficient.

Under other circumstances, assuming that labor costs rise by 15%, the price of agricultural products will rise by 4.1%, industrial prices will rise by 1.29%, service prices will rise by 3.12%, and the combined impact on prices will be about 2.98%.

Two layers of filtration: labor productivity improves and digestion labor costs change.

According to the conservative growth of the total output of agriculture, it is possible to restrain the 1/3 of the rising labor cost to the price. After two levels of filtration, the impact of the rising labor cost on China's overall price can be reduced to 2%.

Three level filtering: supplier's profit elasticity restraining the impact of rising labor costs on prices.

If the profit margin of the supplier falls by 15%, the labor cost will rise, and the impact on the price will drop from 2% to 1.78%.

Four tier filtering: the profit elasticity factor of circulation affects the price pmission.

The profit factor elasticity of circulation affects the price pmission.

In vegetable circulation, if the wholesale link is saved directly into the retail sector, the vegetable price will be reduced by 20%.

If the cost of logistics falls by 15%, the impact of rising labor costs on prices can be further reduced to 0.89%.

The comparative static calculation shows that if the annual labor cost increases by 15%, the CPI will be increased by 2.98% at most. After the filtration of three factors, such as the increase of labor productivity, the elasticity of market competition providers and the profit elasticity of circulation, the impact of rising labor costs on prices will be less than 2.98%. If there is no oversupply of money, demand expansion, cost changes superimposed or expected factors, labor costs will rise by 15%, which will reduce the CPI to a minimum of 0.89%.

Profit elasticity of circulation

Labor costs rise to price pressures

According to the 2007 input-output table, the average generalized tax rate of each industry (industry) is 4.7%, of which wholesale and retail industry is the highest, 14.6%, real estate (12.8%), oil extraction industry (12.3%) and financial industry (7.8%) are relatively high, manufacturing industry is basically on average, and agriculture is relatively low, only 0.98%.

Wholesale and retail businesses generally have a tax rate of 17%, while small taxpayers are 3% of sales revenue.

In the wholesale and retail trade of agricultural products, a large number of small vendors, high circulation costs and rigid profits are important reasons for the rising prices of agricultural products.

First, the rise in labor costs has less impact on vegetable prices than circulation.

The price of vegetables is "expensive" in circulation.

According to the survey, the local purchasing price of vegetable farmers is only about 20% of the retail price, while the wholesale price is about half of the retail price. Terminal retail is the most profitable circulation link.

If the wholesale link is omitted, the vegetable price will drop by 20%.

Therefore, the rise in labor costs has less impact on vegetable prices than circulation.

Second, logistics costs are high and there is a big drop in space.

China's toll roads and vehicle tolls are much higher than those of other countries in the world.

The total toll roads around the world are about 140 thousand kilometers, of which 100 thousand kilometers are in China, accounting for 70% of the total kilometers.

In the United States, only 8.8% of the expressways with a total mileage of more than 90 thousand kilometers are toll roads.

According to the world bank's research report released in February 2007, China's vehicle tolls account for more than 2% of GDP per capita, ranking first in the world.

In the total mileage of toll roads in the whole country, the two class toll roads mileage and toll stations (points) account for about 60% of the total.

Geng Shuhai, deputy director of the State Economic and Trade Department of the national development and Reform Commission, pointed out at the 2011 China logistics development conference that all kinds of cross road tolls in China have been as high as 1/3 of pportation enterprises, and the toll standards for highways are too high.

Third, the logistics cost is reduced by 10%, which is equivalent to the 1/3 of the rising labor cost.

According to the data released by the NDRC website, the total cost of social logistics in China is estimated at 7 trillion yuan in 2010. The total social logistics cost and GDP ratio are 18.3% in 2005 and 18% in 2010.

If the ratio of total logistics cost to GDP falls to 10% of developed countries, the cost of logistics can be saved by 31000 billion yuan.

In 2010, the remuneration of workers (income from urban and rural residents) was about 16 trillion and 300 billion yuan, an increase of about 2 trillion yuan over 2009.

If the cost of logistics is reduced by 10%, about 700 billion yuan, which is equivalent to about 1/3 of the increase in labor remuneration, this will reduce the 1/3 of the impact of rising labor costs on prices.

This means that if the cost of logistics falls by 10%, the impact of rising labor costs on prices can be further reduced to 1.19%.

If the cost of logistics falls by 20% to 15% of GDP, the impact of rising labor costs on prices will be further reduced to about 0.59%.

From the middle of November 2010, we stopped collecting fresh agricultural products and highway charges and other measures to suppress the immediate effect of vegetable prices. We think that the logistics cost has dropped by 15%, and further inhibiting the impact of rising labor costs on price 50% is possible, that is, the decline in circulation links, equivalent to 15% of the logistics cost, further reducing the impact of labor costs on CPI to 0.89%.

To sum up, the annual labor cost increase of 15% has a 0.89% impact on prices, which depends on the change of labor productivity, industry competition and profit elasticity in circulation. The faster the increase of labor productivity, the smaller the impact of rising labor costs on prices.

In the excessive competition industry, the profit elasticity of enterprises is large, and the rise of labor costs has little effect on prices. Monopolistic industries, enterprises are rigid in profits, and the rise in labor costs has a greater impact on prices.

The profit elasticity of circulation is large, and the rise of labor cost has little effect on price. The profit of circulation is very rigid, and the rise of labor cost has a greater impact on prices.

Under normal circumstances, if labor costs rise by 15%, the impact on CPI will be about 1.94%.

If labor costs rise by 15% and CPI rises by more than 1.94%, CPI changes may be caused by other factors such as money, demand, other costs, or expectations.

Under the current circumstances, it is not appropriate to exaggerate the impact of rising labor costs on prices.