Domestic Cotton Futures Entered A High Level Adjustment.

In the outer ICE cotton continued limit down, the overall external commodity market once again faced with political uncertainties and uncertainties, resulting in increased demand for capital hedge, driven by domestic demand. Zheng cotton Futures entered a high level adjustment phase, showing a phase opposite to the previous "external market lead and domestic spot stagnation", that is, "external market decline, domestic" Spot quotation Raise. "

At the same time, Zheng cotton futures, after a history of 10% yuan in 34870 consecutive trading days, fell 10% after the four consecutive trading day. It is expected that the spot market will further decide the next development of cotton futures. At the same time, at the same time, the trend of the whole cotton noodles and whether the external market will be renewed again in the early stage before the March contract delivery will play a certain role in correcting the development of the market.

From the point of view of the stock market, the current mainstream 4 level flower transaction in the vicinity of 30000 yuan, Xinjiang cotton 3 level price to maintain 32000 yuan, the high level of flower shortage, promote Xinjiang cotton turnover is relatively active. But near date cotton and electronic matching cotton continued to fall, despite the strong cotton quotes, but the deal fell into a slack again, the buyer's wait-and-see mentality increased, and some enterprises lowered the quotation. From the perspective of supply, China's current import of cotton is concentrated in Hong Kong, of which nearly 400 thousand tons in January, will also maintain a high level in the next 2-4 months. At the same time, China's cotton output this year is still concentrated in the middle circulation link. China's resources are guaranteed for at least 2-3 months. At present, the current trend of price difference is upside down. As time goes on, once the confidence of hoarding enterprises is loosened, it will also be necessary.

Consideration should also be given to the participation of cotton in the internal and external market. The cotton trade in the outer ICE stage has been completely controlled by the capital since 2011, especially the cotton contract this year. However, it also determines whether ICE cotton will be able to rise again after two consecutive trading days with a 7 cent limit. In the latest week, ICE released the total cotton position. In February 11th and February 18th, 43979 positions were reduced by two weeks, and the proportion of reduced positions was nearly 20%. At present, it has maintained less than 180 thousand. In May and July, the contract still amounted to nearly 60 thousand hands, but if the funds could not be effectively followed up, the market preview was expected to be greatly reduced after the March contract approached the delivery. For the domestic cotton market, the main force of the relatively early stage is mainly Yongan, new lake and other seats. In the recent decline of cotton prices, there is no lighten up action. To a certain extent, it will also play a stimulating role in the continuation of the next market or the downlink after consolidation.

In view of the generally high cost of cotton purchase this year, between 2.6-2.9 million, the stage enterprises hoarding cotton and the cotton supply and demand gap in the latter half of the year are generally valued, the space of downward cotton stage is relatively limited. It is estimated that the low price driven by cost has relatively strong support in the vicinity of 30000 yuan. The market will be more likely to enter the digestion stage of spot price and price. The evolution of peripheral environment and the trend of main funds in the early stage are important observation points. We should pay close attention to the change of the US cotton in the ICE cotton futures contract in May and July. From the operational level, after a substantial drop and a higher risk of spot price difference, it is still a good strategy to sell short selling at a high level in the light of the surrounding market's instability.