Global Inflationary Pressures Are Rising.

Use "ice and fire" to describe developing countries last year.

Economic globalization and financial globalization spread local volatility and risk to the whole.

Since last year, the emerging economies of many emerging economies, which took the lead in getting out of the financial crisis, have been overheated and inflation is high.

IMF data show that the average inflation rate of emerging economies has increased to more than 6%, and has spread to developed economies.

In January, the euro area inflation rate increased by 2.4% over the same period last year, higher than the 2.2% in December 2010, and the growth rate reached a 27 month high. The German inflation rate rose to 2%, the highest level since October 2008. The inflation rate in the UK has accelerated. The annual inflation rate in Britain jumped to 4%, higher than the target level of the central bank, and the trade weighted index rose to 5 month highs earlier this week. Although the United States was not as high as European inflation pressure, CPI rose 0.4%, up 1.6% over the previous year, and also the highest level in 7 months. Even in Japan, where inflation has been plagued by deflation for a long time, inflation has also risen.

In January, Japan's domestic enterprise price index was 103.9, up 1.6 percentage points over the same period last year.

This is not only a rise in the price index of Japanese enterprises for the fourth consecutive month, but also the first increase since November 2008.

The yield of us 10 - year treasury bonds is the vane of global financial markets and inflation expectations.

In the near term, the US bond yield has soared, and the 10 year period has risen to 3.7%. The TIPS spreads have also risen rapidly, creating a high point since April. This shows that the inflation situation in developed countries has caused market concern.

As a matter of fact, the real price pressure will show up in the coming months due to the effect of raw material price increase, which will take time in the next few months.

In the face of this situation, it is a great probability to start the process of raising interest rates ahead of schedule.

For the United States, it will seek a balance between deficit, employment and inflation pressure. This also determines that the difficult balance between "policy withdrawal" and consolidation of economic recovery will make the us raise interest rates more cautiously. But the rise of the long-term real interest rate will create an adverse mechanism for the short-term federal interest rate of the United States, and the time window for the adjustment of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is likely to be earlier than we expected.

In Europe, the European Central Bank official said: we are ready to act decisively and promptly when needed.

Our objectives are quite clear.

In order to avoid unsustainable inflation expectations, we must change our monetary policy stance when needed.

This shows a policy signal to raise interest rates in response to inflation trends.

In addition, some resource-based countries, such as Australia, Norway and New Zealand, have taken the lead in "withdraw" from the economic stimulus plan and are likely to increase interest rates anytime soon.

The economic recovery is likely to increase interest rates sooner than in the United States, such as India, Korea and Brazil, which are faster than those in the US and Europe, and there are asset bubbles and inflation risks.

The inflationary pressure is rising all over the world. Once again after the financial crisis, we will realize what we call "economic globalization and risk globalization". Only by fully recognizing this risk can we respond more effectively.