• <abbr id="ck0wi"><source id="ck0wi"></source></abbr>
    <li id="ck0wi"></li>
  • <li id="ck0wi"><dl id="ck0wi"></dl></li><button id="ck0wi"><input id="ck0wi"></input></button>
  • <abbr id="ck0wi"></abbr>
  • <li id="ck0wi"><dl id="ck0wi"></dl></li>
  • Home >

    Tao Dong: High Oil Price And Global Economy

    2011/3/2 14:20:00 48

    Tao Donggao Oil Price Global Economy

    If the United States

    Gasoline price

    More than 4 dollars per gallon in 2012, the next US president is not Austrian.

    The petrol price of 4 US dollars is roughly equivalent to the crude oil price of 130-135 US dollars per barrel.


    The Middle East has swept the Middle East.

    A vegetable vendor's self Immolation fire spread like wildfire in North Africa and the Gulf region, pushing up oil prices sharply, triggering fears of inflation and growth, and the risk asset prices have fallen in full.


    Predicting the political situation in the Middle East is beyond the power of the author, and the reliability of such prediction is not necessarily high in the rapidly changing regional politics.

    However, some basic assumptions should be useful for judging the impact of the middle east change on the world economy and the market.


    First of all, I believe that the time length of high oil prices is far more important than the high price of oil prices, which is precisely what worries us.

    The Middle East pformation is the first political revolution in the history of Internet mobilization.

    So far, there has been no mass movement in a country. There is a leader with overall credibility and no opposition of a mainstay.

    The opposition forces do not have political leaders or lack of platform for overthrowing the existing government. There are no effective political groups and talents to fill the political vacuum.

    The overthrow of a current regime is not the ultimate goal of revolution. It may be much more difficult to establish a new and credible and effective new regime.


    Secondly, if the Middle East is unable to achieve orderly and effective power pfer, the political situation may continue unrest, which will lead to the withdrawal of foreign capital.

    Most of the Middle East oil depends on the exploration and production of international oil conglomerates. The problem of long-term supply and stability of oil is not less than that of short term production, and it has a great impact on the economy.


    The rise in oil prices is equivalent to tax increases for consumers, and their purchasing power (outside gasoline) decreases, pulling down consumption and dragging growth.

    Take the United States as an example, oil prices increase by 10 US dollars per year (average annual), consumer purchasing power drops by 150 billion US dollars, plus multiplier effect, GDP growth is reduced by 0.4-0.5 percentage points.

    If oil prices rise to 140 US dollars / barrel, US growth will drop to 2% instead of the original estimate of 3.5%.


    If oil prices stay at US $140, global inflation is expected to rise by 1-1.5 percentage points, but the announcement of inflation and the reaction of the central bank may be different.

    The impact of rising oil prices on emerging market prices is far greater in developed countries.

    In emerging countries, no government subsidy is the most affected, but it is not ruled out that some countries with financial subsidies now cancel or reduce fuel subsidies due to financial burden.

    Energy inflation is also emerging on food inflation, and the contraction of emerging countries is bound to accelerate.


    The rise in oil prices may lead to the decision of the ECB to withdraw.

    Quantitative easing policy

    The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are raising interest rates this year.

    The Fed's monetary policy target does not include the core inflation of energy and food. Although the internal differences will deepen, the Fed led by Shem Bernanke will continue to do quantitative easing as planned.


    I believe that the biggest impact of rising oil prices on the economy is demand shocks (demand


    Shock) lies in consumption and growth.

    But now the economy's dependence on oil has been much worse than before, so it reproduced the first oil crisis in 1974 or 1980.

    The second oil crisis

    There is little likelihood of stagflation.

    If oil prices remain high, the chances of a 1/3 decline in US and European growth will be great. However, it is unlikely that the GDP negative growth will happen.

    Of course, if oil prices rise to $200, it's a different point.

    • Related reading

    Yu Yongding: China'S Growth Pattern Is Not Sustainable

    Expert commentary
    |
    2011/3/1 15:35:00
    40

    Who Increases The National Income Gap?

    Expert commentary
    |
    2011/3/1 13:49:00
    35

    The Situation In The Middle East Will Determine The Future Trend Of World Economy.

    Expert commentary
    |
    2011/3/1 13:31:00
    127

    Li Kailuo: What Is The Real Buyer In The Clothing Industry?

    Expert commentary
    |
    2011/3/1 8:58:00
    126

    During The Two Sessions, The Stock Market Rose More Or Less &Nbsp;

    Expert commentary
    |
    2011/2/28 19:36:00
    80
    Read the next article

    Small And Medium Sized Shoe Enterprises Take Brand Differentiation And Get Out Of The Dilemma Of Homogenization.

    In this age of individuality and style, enterprises cater to consumers on the banner of "individuality and fashion" while making production and management more and more homogeneous. When consumers look at two pairs of "identical shoes" shaking their heads in the market, many shoe makers may not be unaware of the problem. However, it is not easy to find a breakthrough.

    主站蜘蛛池模板: 精品卡一卡2卡三卡免费观看| 中文字幕日韩理论在线| caoporn97在线视频进入| 欧美成人18性| 国产精品久久久久久网站| 亚洲国产欧洲综合997久久| 香蕉免费在线视频| 欧美一级黄色片免费看| 国产欧美精品AAAAAA片| 亚洲AV无码成人黄网站在线观看| 性xxxx黑人与亚洲| 日韩欧美亚洲每的更新在线| 国产在线19禁在线观看| 久久人人爽人人爽人人片AV东京热| 香蕉视频免费看| 日本免费电影一区| 啊好深好硬快点用力视频| 一级毛片高清免费播放| 男人桶女人j的视频在线观看| 欧美大香线蕉线伊人久久| 国产精品无码翘臀在线观看| 交换年轻夫妇5| 888亚洲欧美国产VA在线播放| 欧美性巨大欧美| 国产成人精品A视频一区| 久久久久免费看成人影片| 美国大片免费收看| 夜夜爽免费888视频| 亚洲成年人电影在线观看| 成人三级精品视频在线观看| 日本夜爽爽一区二区三区| 北条麻妃在线视频观看| 99久久香蕉国产线看观香| 福利视频导航大全| 国产露出调教91| 久久精品视频观看| 老师让我她我爽了好久视频| 好男人日本社区www| 亚洲日本一区二区一本一道| 麻豆国产精品一二三在线观看| 把腿扒开做爽爽视频|