Is Cotton In Short Supply Or Lack? Hidden Rules Of Cotton Survival

In February 26th, third snowflakes were floating in Beijing, while the bright snow had moistened the air, but also made the trip difficult. This morning, the president of the China Textile Industry Association, Du Yuzhou, vice president Zhang Yankai, Zhu Bei Na, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, Zheng Junlin, Secretary General of China Chemical Fiber Association, Wang Yuping, deputy secretary general, Xu Jixiang of China's Linen Textile Industry Association, and China knitwear industry Association Gu asked Wang Jinglv, etc., still chose to be a traveler to the second China Knitting Industry Association's five two executive director enlarged meeting in Qingdao. On this day, it began to rain and wind in Qingdao, but it did not block more than 200 delegates' journeys.

The reason why this meeting is so "giant" is on the one hand is the topic of the conference -- discussion. raw material The problem is quite attractive in the current situation. On the other hand, it seems to reporters that Yang Shibin, the president of the China knitwear industry association, has consistently advocated the establishment of an industrial alliance. The competition for raw materials in the future is particularly fierce. Although the judgement is different, but the "12th Five-Year" period, and even the next 10 years, the industry how to develop, how to deal with the enterprise, has formed a more consistent view.

　　 Cotton price Steady PK will still go higher.

A person in charge of a cotton spinning enterprise said that the proportion of air rises was higher than that before. Textile enterprises are mostly reluctant to sell before and after the festival, but now they have increased sales intensity. The three or four month is the peak season for yarn sales. It may be difficult for them to rise in volume and price.

Just as predicting the future price rises and falls, cotton prices naturally become the focus of attention and the biggest difference. Yang Shibin's "global cotton supply and demand balance" theory has been countered by opposition, but even if they are going to raise their cotton prices, they will have to admit that there will be a stable period in the next few months. In 2011, cotton prices rose or fell. In the long run, the scarcity of natural fibers represented by cotton is still an indisputable fact. Therefore, after the debate, delegates thought more about the future of enterprises.

2010 August is a black memory. "Since August, cotton prices have skyrocketing. chemical fiber It has also joined the rising ranks. Yang Shibin recalled. From last January's 15300 yuan / ton to 31905 yuan / ton in February this year, cotton price has given the enterprises a real sense of madness, and also deeply realized that there is no tallest but higher. So, what exactly is the promoter of cotton price inflation? The delegates analyzed many factors: the decline of cotton output and quality caused by climate factors last year, the development momentum of cotton textile enterprises, the strong demand for cotton, the reduction of global cotton stocks, the restriction of exports in India, the shortage of demand for cotton in the United States, and the artificial speculation.

Is cotton in short supply or not? This is the main basis for judging whether cotton will rise in the future. Yang Shibin, the general manager of Huamao Group in Anhui, said that the supply and demand of the world's cotton was always balanced, and the world's cotton output was 25 million tons. The cotton consumption in the current year was 25 million 170 thousand tons, and the gap was not so wide. According to this year's planting intention survey, China's cotton planting area will increase by 9.8%~10%, and the planting area of 4 other cotton producing countries such as the United States and India will not drop sharply, and the demand will not change too much, so it is unlikely that cotton will continue to rise. In Yang Shibin's view, cotton prices fluctuated last year, though there was a problem of supply and demand. Wang Gong believes that futures speculation and human hoarding will not last long.

In addition to the global balance of supply and demand, there are other factors that will not support the rise in cotton prices. "The first is the downstream capacity." Yang Shibin said, "cotton prices rose 100% last year, yarn prices rose 50%, fabric prices rose 12%, clothing prices rose by only 1%, and terminal retail prices fell by 1%. With the increase of other labor costs and the depreciation of the renminbi, the downstream enterprises are becoming more and more overwhelmed. The second is macroeconomic factors. The role of the state in implementing macroeconomic regulation and tightening monetary policy has begun to emerge. In addition, a large number of cotton enterprises before stocking, cotton stocks large, and imported cotton in three or four months will be a large number of concentrated goods, cotton prices will eventually return to value. It is predicted that 28000~30000 yuan / ton will be more appropriate. In addition, yarn prices are showing signs of loosen up. A person in charge of a cotton spinning enterprise said that the proportion of air rises was higher than that before. Textile enterprises are mostly reluctant to sell before and after the festival, but now they have stepped up sales efforts. The three or four month is the peak season for yarn sales. It may be difficult for them to rise in volume and price.

The analysis of the future trend of the "cotton price" representative is also based on the "gap". Zhu Beina, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, said that in 2010, China's cotton spinning spindles increased by 10 million spindles, textile and garment exports were in a strong recovery period, and the domestic market maintained a high level of growth. Domestic cotton supply and demand gap will remain an important supporting factor for high cotton prices. This is also the worry of Xiao Jingyao, deputy general manager of Huafang group. "Huafang uses 400 thousand tons of cotton every year, and its inventory is about 3 months now." he is worried about raw materials purchasing, and buys five or six months of cotton. Xiao Jingyao is deeply shocked by the hot sale of last year's yarn. "Combing 32 yarns is the mainstream product of Huafang, and has been rushing around to expand the market. But last year there was no supply, so passive price rise was unprecedented. Therefore, in Xiao Jingyao's view, the price of cotton and yarn in this round of price rise is benign, mainly driven by the consumption. He suggested that the knitting enterprise should pay attention to the stock. "Without reasonable yarn stock, there is no bottom line." He said.

Living in the era of high cotton prices

Du Yuzhou analysis said: "cotton is difficult for us to raise prices, and we feel pressure when the exchange rate rises." To change this phenomenon, we must improve our core competitiveness. In view of the scarcity of cotton, Du Yuzhou said that chemical fibers can develop super Imitation cotton, while cotton and other natural fibers mainly develop luxury goods.

No matter how controversial cotton prices are, there is no way to avoid long-term scarcity of cotton and other natural fibers. The global population growth and the cotton growing area can not be greatly expanded, so that both the positive and the negative sides will treasure the cotton resources. As an entrepreneur said, "we inevitably enter the era of high cotton prices." How to survive in the era of high cotton prices? Different people have different levels of answers.

From the industry level, the knit, cotton spinning, chemical fiber and linen textile association has reached an agreement on industrial cooperation. After all, whether it rises or falls, it affects not just one industry, but the entire industrial chain. It is reported that the fiber processing capacity of the knitting industry has reached 13 million tons, and cotton textile has accounted for 60%. On the board, Yang Shibin stressed the importance of establishing an industrial alliance to fight risks together. Because knitting is a single machine and a single process, the production rhythm can be reasonably arranged. And cotton spinning is a long car, long process, chemical fiber is also, its production characteristics decided not to stop and stop, once knitted to reduce production, their losses will be greater. {page_break}

From the enterprise level, even cotton textile enterprises themselves are not delighted with the scale of rapid expansion. Wang Gong suggested that textile enterprises should be self disciplined and not to expand the spindles blindly, so that the original cotton would be more stretched. Some enterprises recall the scene of buying cotton last year, and they were thrilling. Some cotton traders in Xinjiang have reflected that some textile companies have not yet signed contracts to purchase money from the cotton to hit their accounts, and it is not yet clear when money will come to cotton. If production capacity continues to expand, this scenario will become more common.

According to the above situation, Du Yuzhou analyzed: "cotton is difficult for us to raise prices, and we feel pressure when the exchange rate rises." To change this phenomenon, we must improve our core competitiveness. He said that the "12th Five-Year" outline of science and technology has 4 key points in science and technology: raw materials, equipment, clean production and product development. In view of the scarcity of cotton, Du Yuzhou said that chemical fiber can develop super Imitation cotton to achieve cotton performance and surpass it, which is more comfortable and beautiful than cotton quality, and also has the function of moisture absorption and sweating. Cotton and other natural fibers mainly develop high-grade products or even luxuries. Du Yuzhou combined with his own investigation of some hundred years family businesses in Italy, said that although these enterprises are small in scale, they have experienced two world wars and two world financial crises, and have survived well. What are they relying on? Quality! "As a pillar industry, textile industry will not weaken its position through promotion." Du Yuzhou asserted.

On this Council, many cotton spinning, chemical fiber and hemp textile enterprises have brought new products developed by the company, such as the new season color cards produced by Huafu, hemp products of hemp industry of Klc Holdings Ltd, and Charles Camille Saint-Saens silkworm chrysalis protein fiber of Sichuan Yibin Humei line Co., Ltd. Du Yuzhou communicated with many enterprises and encouraged their innovative spirit.