Afternoon Break: Commodities Were Weak In Early Trading, And &Nbsp Was In Shanghai.

Early Monday, the domestic futures market generally showed a weak shock pattern, only Shanghai gold.

On the morning of March 7th, the stock index futures market was mixed.

Metal market, non-ferrous metals fell, gold rose more than 1%; agricultural products, sugar fell slightly, Zheng cotton rose slightly; LLDPE in fuel oil products, rose more than 1%.

Shanghai copper 1105 reported 74350 yuan, down 0.17%; Shanghai zinc 1105 reported 18940 yuan, fell 1.51%; Shanghai aluminum 1105 reported 16920 yuan, fell 0.53%; thread 1110 1110 yuan, rose to 4824; gold was reported to be yuan yuan, rose.

In terms of agricultural products, sugar 1109 reported 7256 yuan, fell 0.04%; zhengmian 1109 yuan reported 32610 yuan, up 0.14%; strong wheat 1109 reported 2874 yuan, 0.07%; vegetable oil 1109 yuan 10598 yuan, rose to 10598; indica rice reported yuan yuan, rose; corn reported that Yuan Yuan, rose; soybean meal reported, Yuan Yuan, fell; soybean oil reported that Yuan Yuan, rose; beans one yuan reported yuan yuan, fell;

In terms of fuel chemicals, fuel 1105 reported 4860 yuan, up 0.43%.

Shanghai zinc

From the focus of the market, the situation in the Middle East, the trend of crude oil and the direction of national macroeconomic policy are the focus of the market.

The price range of zinc is the main shock, waiting for directional choice, because the market trend is weak now, so we should treat it in a way of concussion.

Plastic

Crude oil price rises are plastic, etc.

Shanghai Gold

Taking into account the operation of SPDR in the first half of the year, the SPDR fund has resorted to a "blind eye" in the face of the rise in gold, which may be in line with the operation of hedge funds.

From the CFTC gold fund position, the recent CFTC data around the US show that the net position of gold fund is rising continuously, which indicates that the current institutional investors are buying gold.

In short, hedge demand and inflation worries are expected to sustain gold prices. In the current situation, gold prices will rise by at least $100.

Through the analysis of the golden day K-line, we find that the K-line structure from May 12, 2010 to July 26th is quite similar to the K-line structure from October 13, 2010 to January 26, 2011. It is not difficult to guess that the main force has the "old technology to be applied again". Therefore, we should still pay more attention to gold and buy it on every callback.

cotton

On the one hand, the increase of cotton planting area has a great pressure on cotton prices. However, compared with grain and other cash crops, there are many problems such as less subsidies, more work and more risks. On the other hand, the macroeconomic policies adopted by the state to control inflation will slow down the economic growth and also have a greater impact on the entire cotton production and processing industry.

From a fundamental and macro perspective, the uplink of cotton prices has narrowed down and the possibility of downlink has increased, hoping to attract investors' attention.

soybean

Through the comparative analysis of the price trend of soybean in recent 10 years, it is found that its cyclical trend is more obvious.

Affected by the characteristics of domestic contractual pactions and the change of the international soybean growth cycle, the domestic soybean futures price tends to have a seasonal (bull market) low (bear market) point before and after 4, 8 and 12 months, and there will be obvious adjustment of the trend of accumulation before that.

At present, the international soybean is in the bull market pattern. When the domestic soybean is greatly adjusted after the festival, the time period is at the stage adjusted node.

Supported by cost, the possibility of a substantial adjustment of the market price is very small.

In the context of a long-term rise in the base, with the rising cost of soybean imports and the gradual lifting of the "limit up" order of domestic edible oil, the price of soybean is likely to end at any time.

Investors should keep more thinking and buy at bargain prices.

Sugar

Since then, due to market fears that sugar production in Brazil and India's two major sugar producing countries will jump by an increase, it has increased their potential to increase exports, leading to a sharp return to the lowest level in 3 months.

However, European Union officials said recently that in order to ease the tight supply of sugar in the European Union, it was approved to import 300 thousand tons of sugar with zero tariff.

In addition, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) sharply reduced the estimated global sugar oversupply in to 196 thousand tons, estimated at 1 million 290 thousand tons before, and will also support the price of sugar.

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Prior to the adjustment of the sugar price, the objective conditions of the market fundamentals could not be changed. The supply and demand situation is still the key to determining the trend of sugar price. After the adjustment is expected, the price of sugar will still run high.

PTA

At present, the price of cotton and PTA continues to run high under the influence of inflation, but the downstream textile market has not been effectively digested, and tightened monetary policy has tightened the funds of downstream enterprises, and the factory's willingness to purchase high priced raw materials has dropped significantly.

PTA is in the middle link of the whole industry chain, and it is necessary to run effectively upstream and downstream to maintain the high price of PTA. At present, there is no effective support for downstream consumption, and the trend of high PTA price is not optimistic.

Facing the inflationary pressure, monetary policy at home and abroad has been tightened gradually. Since the second half of last year, the tightening effect of China's central bank raising interest rates and raising deposit reserve ratio will appear gradually.

At present, PTA production is lucrative, and the high price of crude oil is not obvious for its stimulation effect.

PTA downstream consumer market has been delayed effectively by various factors, which will affect the upward trend of PTA.

On the whole, the focus of PTA oscillations will move down in the near future, and the risk of callbacks will increase.