Commodity Shock &Nbsp; Cotton Gum Continued To Decline.

Japan's earthquake triggered panic in the market and domestic beans continued to weaken.

Supported by technology buying, CBOT soybeans on Monday futures market Higher. In March, soybeans closed 1329 cents, up 2.5 cents; in May, soybeans opened 1323 cents, 1342 cents high, 1318.5 cents lower, closed 1340 cents, up 5.5 cents, and November soybeans closed 1308 cents, up 8 cents. CBOT soy products futures market closed at the same time, in May soybean oil closed 55.38 cents / pound, down 0.52 cents; in May, soybean meal closed at 355.5 U.S. dollars / short ton, up 5.5 U.S. dollars.

The market rebounded from the previous week's setback, which is mainly supported by the end users' bargain buying. Buyers are still worried about the supply of the market, because the expected end of the year will end to a 15 year low. The continuing impact of the Japanese earthquake on grain and soybean demand is uncertain. The demand for finished food in the country is now higher than that in raw materials. In the short term, US grain demand slows down to help ease inventory tensions, and as March 31st approaches, traders will turn their attention to the US agriculture department's planting intention report. The measure of area The material is once again the focus of the market. However, if the fund is short of interest in buying commodities and grain futures, there will be a downward risk in the soybean line.

Today, the domestic market is still weak, with a slight decline. At noon, the 1201 contract of soybean was closed at 4400, down by 0.02%; the 1109 contract of soybean meal was 3288, down 0.6%; the 1109 soybean oil contract closed at 9898, fell by 0.12%; and the palm oil 1109 contract was 9010, decreasing by 9010.

On the spot, the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Jiangsu Lianyungang factory was reduced to 3130 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton lower than yesterday's quotation, and the transaction was not yet confirmed. Yesterday, the turnover was 3070 yuan / ton. Zhangjiagang Dachang soybean oil is stable, the first class soybean oil price is 10100 yuan / ton, the four grade soybean oil price is 9900 yuan / ton, and the quotation is flat yesterday, and the transaction reconsideration, the factory yesterday first class soybean oil 10050 yuan / ton, has traded 1000 tons. The palm oil of Rizhao port is stable. The palm oil of China and Hong Kong maintains 24 yuan at 9350 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday. Traders' 24 degree palm oil price is 9350 yuan / ton, unchanged from yesterday.

Japan's earthquake has led to a sharp collapse in the Asian Pacific stock market. market Under this influence, the trend is relatively weak, and there is no good support at present, and the expected increase in South America is still a great pressure on the rise of the market. In view of the trend, the U. S. bean is still in the short run, although it has not yet broken down the early stage of the low point, but under the influence of the current market, it does not exclude the possibility of continuing to fall, with the further decline in the market, the low stock of the U. S. bean will be supported by a certain amount of support. Judging from the internal market performance, the intraday concussion is larger, although the opening slightly rebounded, but with the decline in the stock market continued to show a weak trend. On the operation, it is suggested that wait-and-see should be the main factor, and the domestic market should be cautious.

Xu Liang, East Asia Futures Research Department

Cotton continues to fall, with medium term downtrend established

The ICE cotton futures closed down on Monday and fell on the fourth day in the past five trading days, triggering a sell-off in the commodity market due to uncertainties related to Japan's nuclear crisis. Index ICE-5 cotton contract CTK1 fell 7 cents to 1.9794 dollars per pound. The next data to provide direction for the market is the crop prediction report released by the US Department of agriculture in March 31st.

Today, Zheng Mian 1109 continues to contract. Low opened at 29600, the highest 29850, the lowest 28725, closed at 29000, compared with the previous trading day fell 930 points (-3.11%). Cotton index decreased by 10994 positions, turnover of more than 1 million 900 thousand hands.

In the spot market, in March 15th, China's cotton price index (328) was 30995 yuan / ton, down 103 yuan / ton. In March 14th, the import cotton price index (FCIndex S) was 236.23 cents / pound, up 2.62 cents / pound; 1% tariff 39343 yuan / ton, up 434 yuan / ton; discount sliding duty 39600 yuan / ton, up 430 yuan / ton.

According to the Statistics Bureau, 184 thousand and 200 tons of cotton imported in February, a decrease of 207 thousand tons compared with January, a decrease of 53%, a decrease of 16.7% compared with the same period last year and a continuous decrease in domestic cotton imports. In addition, under the influence of strong earthquakes in Japan, domestic textile industry will be reduced from Japan in the short term, and cotton prices will be callback. The current market focus is on supply and demand in the coming year. The tension of global supply and demand fundamentals will ease in 2011/12. According to the US Department of agriculture, the world's cotton production is estimated at 27 million 750 thousand tons in 2011/12, an increase of 10.63% over the previous year, and consumption of 26 million 120 thousand tons, an increase of 2.96% over the previous year. The fundamentals turned to supply oversupply in the 6 consecutive year of supply shortage, and the stock at the end of the year rose more than 17%. But overall, after a sharp rise in cotton prices, international supply will surely ease in the new year.

From the disk trend, driven by the United States cotton limit, the domestic continued to open, the intraday shock, the first time cotton trading first fell, then up and down again, the trend of turbulence, in the break time, the United States cotton diving, the second trading time after the beginning of cotton also diving, the lowest to 28725, before closing prices rebounded. The cotton broke down yesterday and fell below the 30 thousand pass. Today it continues to fall and the downward trend is established. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fall. It is recommended that the bears continue to hold.

Xu Zhou, East Asia Futures Research Department

White sugar again in the 6800 shock.

Due to the deterioration of the situation after Japan's strong earthquake and tsunami, the market worried that economic growth and raw material demand will be affected. Under the pressure of the fall of commodity market, the price of ICE sugar raw sugar futures fell to its lowest level in 2 weeks this Monday. The sugar price of the 1105 period dropped 107 points (-3.7%) on the same day, closing at 27.79 cents / pound.

Today, Zheng sugar 1109 contracts hit hard. Low opened at 6873, the highest 6909, the lowest 6795, closed at 6869, compared with the previous trading day fell 10 points (-0.15%). The index of sugar index increased 21762 positions daily, with a turnover of more than 790 thousand hands.

In the spot market, Guangxi quoted price concussion, Nanning middlemen quoted 7150 yuan / ton, the quoted price increased 30 yuan / ton, sales volume was light. The price of the northern sales area fell on Tuesday, and the spot price of Tianjin was 7450 yuan / ton, which was generally traded. The price of sugar in the East China sales area is stable or falling, Ningbo quoted price: 7350 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton, the turnover is light, stock is general.

More than half of this season has been carried out, and the output of this season has been basically finalized. It is estimated that there will be about 11 million tons, which is basically the same as the previous one. However, under the influence of high sugar prices, domestic sugar sales dropped by more than 16% year-on-year. In February, the monthly sales volume was only 720 thousand tons, the lowest level in recent years. The market is worried that domestic consumption will not flourish, and the gap between supply and demand will not be so great. According to the seasonal characteristics of sugar, domestic sugar prices tend to fall easily during the off-season. At present, the domestic fundamentals are calm, and there is no new positive stimulus in the short term. Under the influence of low consumption, the price of sugar is mainly based on callbacks.

Judging from the trend of the disk, by last night's raw sugar low impact, Zheng sugar opened slightly lower today, opened up after the rise, the highest to 6909, lower than yesterday's closing price, followed by a gradual downward shock, the lowest to 6795, holdings increased, late rebounded, the position has been reduced. Today, sugar continues to fall, stabilizing at yesterday's low point and collecting Cross stars at noon. In the short term, the gap between the 6800-6850 pre flight gap is strong, but sugar is still in a downward path. Sugar prices will continue to be callback before the end of the peak consumption season. At present, it is recommended that the bears continue to hold. {page_break}

The pressure on steel prices is still high.

Today, the 1110 main contract of the steel thread main unit is in a concussion, with a maximum of 4755 yuan, with a minimum of 4712 yuan, and the afternoon plate rose to 0.98% yuan from 0.98% yuan to 4738 yuan.

In the spot market, market transactions have improved, and some low-priced resources have been reluctant to sell and move up. The price quotas are almost all over the world, including three grade rebar in Shanghai area rising from 20 yuan to 4870 yuan / ton, and the Tianjin area has risen 40 yuan to 4840 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, although the Japanese earthquake caused the steel plant to shut down, its demand for iron ore has been greatly reduced. However, the price of iron ore has remained stable for a while. The 63.5%/63% powder in the outer market has been maintained at 175 US dollars, and the price of the domestic Tangshan mine in Hebei has been stable at 1360 yuan / ton. In terms of ocean freight, the Baltic dry bulk index dropped slightly from 0.19% to 1559 yesterday.

In terms of inventory, after the continuous increase of rebar storehouses in major cities, the first decline in the last year was 109 thousand and 480 tons to 7 million 627 thousand and 550 tons, indicating that demand was better than expected.

From the disk, Japan's strong earthquake, reflected on the side is a more positive impact, yesterday after the steel bar bottom strong rise, today's plate with a narrow range of shock, the upper 4750 yuan there is a certain pressure, whether this kind of good will continue, so that a rebound in steel prices, still need further confirmation. It is suggested that investors wait and see for a while and pay close attention to the sustainability of the rally.

Cao Li, East Asia Futures Research Department

Shanghai copper fell into a shock pattern. The two sides launched a tug of war.

LME copper rebounded slightly on Monday, at 9300 pressure significantly, closed at 9230 U.S. dollars / ton. The main reason is that Japan's strong earthquake triggered the market's demand for reconstruction after the Japanese earthquake, which helped raise copper prices. But there are market analysts who believe that Japan may need several months to recover. It is difficult to carry out large-scale reconstruction in the short term, and its supporting role in copper prices is limited.

In terms of inventory, LME inventories increased slightly from 125 tons to 426000 tons on Monday. In the domestic spot market, today's spot price of the Yangtze River is quoted at 68850-69000 yuan / ton, the copper in the flat water rises 0, and the copper in the ascending water rises 150.

Judging from today's disk trend, Shanghai copper continued yesterday's concussion trend. After a slight opening, it fell back to the high level. It blocked down on the 5 day moving average, and fell below the 69000 pass again. At midday, 1006 contracts closed at 69390. From the technical chart, Shanghai copper is still showing a weak pattern. At present, the two sides are in a tug of war in the 69000-70000 area. On the operation, it is suggested that empty bills can still be held.

East Asia Futures Feng Kai

Shanghai zinc continues to rebound slightly after market trend is still not optimistic.

The market has stabilized and rebounded on Monday. Although the situation in Japan is not yet smooth, the market expects that post disaster reconstruction work will require greater industrial supplies. Therefore, LME zinc has rebounded slightly and ended up at 2322.5 points, up 42.5 points or 1.86% from the previous day. LME inventory continued to decrease from 150 tons to 733 thousand and 900 tons, and the warehouse receipt was cancelled by 0.57%. LME zinc is temporarily supporting at 2300 points, but the global crisis is intensifying.

Today, the Shanghai zinc 1105 contract opened slightly higher than the 18050 point. After the opening price, the price went up 18200 points and a line at the two time, but all failed. The Nikkei index dropped significantly to the market. After second quarters of the market, it fell to a 18000 point platform. But today, the position is strong, and the position is immediately drawn back, but the resistance is also greater. The price fluctuates in the inter district. The morning closed at 18110 points, which rose by 180 points, or 1%, and the turnover volume was significantly narrowed compared with yesterday. Today's spot price reported 17650-17750 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton yesterday, and the spot market is not steady because of the price trend. Suggestion: Shanghai zinc is temporarily supported at 18000 o'clock today, but the upward momentum is still insufficient. The situation in Japan is not optimistic. The global stock market crash will also drag the market trend. From the perspective of graphic structure, the C wave has fallen, and the short term structure is difficult to improve. Waiting for this rally to weaken and rejoin the empty list.