Li Jian: The Cost Of Manufacturing Will Double In The Next 30 Years.

China

In the next 30 years, China will face the challenge of increasing manufacturing cost, but we can take this opportunity to readjust its industrial structure.

Reporter: how much manpower cost has increased in China's manufacturing industry in recent years?

Li Jian: how much is the "labor shortage" and the general wage increase in manufacturing industry?

Cai Fang, director of the Institute of population and labor economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, first suggested that China's demographic dividend would disappear.

As in the past, factory wages have remained unchanged for ten years, and the days of workers still can be recruited.

Reporter: does the rising cost affect export?

Li Jian: the impact on China's exports is bound to happen.

But in 2010, the total export volume of China still increased by 31.3%.

During 11th Five-Year, the total annual export growth rate reached over 15%.

If there is no increase in this part of the cost, it is estimated that China's exports will grow faster.

The pressure to adjust the industrial structure will be relatively small. It will not be as urgent as it is now.

Reporter: as far as you know, which industries are most seriously affected?

Li Jian: under the condition of labor shortage, the labor intensive enterprises will be affected most, for example, the textile industry, the footwear industry, the toy industry, the electronic products production and so on.

In these enterprises, the proportion of workers' remuneration expenses in the total cost is the highest, which is the most affected.

In contrast, capital intensive industries are relatively less affected by high technology demanding industries.

Reporter: it has been reported that the cost of China's manufacturing industry has been improving in recent years. What causes the cost increase?

Li Jian: China is not just passing through the "turning point of Lewis", that is, the turning point of surplus labor force to labor shortage, and other factors of production prices are also rising.

China used to be a big exporter of coal, but now it has become an importing country.

China's resources, such as water, electricity, oil and all kinds of services, are rising.

At the beginning of reform and opening up, China's land was very cheap, and it was easy for enterprises to build a large number of factories. But now the cost of land pfer is very high. Site selection and construction are no longer as simple as before.

After 2000, China's industrialization process accelerated, and the problem of environmental pollution was also highlighted.

In the past, China's environmental protection standards were low, so the cost of environmental protection was relatively low. Now, the state's requirements for environmental protection in enterprises are becoming stricter and stricter, which also leads to the increase of manufacturing costs.

Reporter: what are China's Countermeasures for raising labor shortage and raising the cost of manufacturing industry?

Li Jian: China's countermeasures are written in the outline of 12th Five-Year.

For example, we should pform extensive economy into intensive type and no longer rely on essential factors. This element includes both natural resources and human resources.

We should pay attention to technological innovation, product quality, and enhance service and industrial competitiveness.

Reporter: are there any signs of developing countries' orders from China to other countries?

Li Jian: now it seems that China's labor shortage, the increase in wages of manufacturing workers and the rising cost will definitely affect the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry in the world.

But in recent years, the advantage of China's manufacturing industry is not just price.

In the past thirty years since reform and opening up, China has already had a relatively stable social and economic environment, and its infrastructure has been improved.

In addition, China's investment environment is also very good.

Despite the fact that Chinese working people are demanding higher pay, overall, the characteristics of Chinese workers' hardworking have not changed.

Another important point is that China's industrial agglomeration is high.

Therefore, after the foreign enterprise has placed the order, the factory can quickly prepare the raw materials and complete the production.

China's manufacturing costs may no longer be the lowest in the world, but the supply capacity is the strongest in the world.

Therefore, some low value-added industries, such as textile and garment industry, are moving from China to Southeast Asian countries. For example, many European and American clothing brands will go to Southeast Asia and South Asia to find suppliers.

Vietnam has made more and more sports shoes we buy in China.

Reporter: how long do you think the shortage of labor will last?

Li Jian: the rising cost of labor shortage will be a continuous process. In the next 30 years, China will face this challenge.