The Impact Of Japan's Earthquake On The Global Economy

　　 Japan large earthquake For our country Clothing industry Limited influence

Japan's strong earthquake and tsunami triggered great damage to the country's economy. As one of the world's leading industrial and export giants, the earthquake that Japan is experiencing has a striking impact on the world economy and industry.

Overall, it has little impact on China's economy.

Judging from the incomplete information analysis, the impact of the earthquake on China's economy will not be too great.

Earthquakes are not fatal to Japan's economy. The earthquake occurred near the northeastern part of Honshu Island rather than on the land of core economic zones such as Tokyo or Osaka. Compared with the 1995 ban Shen earthquake, the damage and impact of the earthquake on the economy may be smaller.

Earthquake has a wide impact on China's economy, but its overall impact is not large. Japan is China's third largest trading country, and has extensive and close economic ties with China. This will inevitably have an impact on China's economy. However, due to China's trade deficit with Japan, China exported $121 billion 60 million to Japan in 2010, and imports to US $176 billion 710 million, and the trade deficit was as high as 55 billion 650 million US dollars. Therefore, short term supply shortage will bring some impact to China.

Japan may further relax monetary policy after the earthquake, which will further ease the international monetary environment, which will undoubtedly increase inflationary pressure. From a financial market perspective, Japanese insurance companies will sell international financial assets to raise insurance indemnities, and yen may come back in stages, resulting in a short run in international stock market and a short-term appreciation of the yen. From a commodity perspective, short-term demand decline may lead to a fall in prices, but in the long run, commodity price increases will not be changed due to increased demand for reconstruction.

Export or impact of textile and clothing

As far as the impact of the specific industry is concerned, the earthquake in Japan will directly affect the industries of China's export demand, such as textile and clothing, agricultural products and so on.

Wang Dingying, vice president of Taiping bird group and general manager of Taiping bird import and export company in Ningbo, Zhejiang, said she was receiving customers when she got the news of Japan's earthquake. She immediately asked the salesperson to contact the customer, but many phone calls had been blocked.

The annual export of Taiping bird is nearly US $100 million, of which the Japanese market is about 67 million US dollars per year, accounting for about 8%. The market has been very stable. There were two shipments on the day of the earthquake. "It's not clear what the losses are now, but fortunately we have all covered insurance." Wang Dingying said.

"There is nothing to do with a large container ship at sea. What worries most is the impact of the tsunami on the dock. The cargo ship can not rely on the shore or be directly engulfed." Last night, Mr. Pan, the sales director of the Japanese line, talked about Japan's earthquake.

"Last Friday just sent a batch of goods, from Ningbo to Guandong, we should arrive in Hong Kong on Monday." Mr. Pan is a bit worried because the Kanto harbour is a relatively serious port. Yesterday, he kept calling customers to send mail to see if they had been lost.

In addition, many foreign trade companies are worried about the aftermath of the earthquake. The annual export value of Zhejiang new great group is 500 million US dollars, of which the Japanese market accounts for nearly 1/3, mainly clothing and bedding. "Fortunately, the recent off-season shipments, the impact is not big, but the next psychological bottom." Jiang Yimin, head of the group.

In the short term, the Japanese earthquake may have some negative effects on the export of Zhejiang's foreign trade company, but because the proportion of Japan exported to Japan is smaller, the impact is limited, according to the analysis of relevant officials of the Zhejiang provincial chamber of Commerce. On the other hand, after short-term demand is suppressed, there will be a need to replenish inventory. In the medium to long term, due to the earthquake damage in Japan and the great demand for post earthquake reconstruction, the relevant companies may get more Japanese orders, but this will take time to prove.

However, Japan's earthquake has little direct impact on China's textile and apparel listed companies.

Logistics is facing pressure of rising prices

From Jiaxing customs in Zhejiang, a number of cargo ships destined for Kansai, Japan, have arrived safely, while cargo ships destined for Kanto haven't been on shore. "Now the news of feedback is that several ports in Kansai are very busy, and goods are in varying degrees of detention." Jiaxing customs officials said.

In addition to worrying about the safety of goods, whether shipping fees will rise at the later stage is also a worry for many freight forwarding companies and foreign trade companies. "We cannot exclude the possibility that some airlines will increase their prices because of risk factors." The sales manager of another large shipping company in Ningbo expressed his concern. It is understood that the end of March every year is the financial settlement month for many Japanese companies, and the Japanese Airlines Association's emergency surcharge is also reasonable.

Zhejiang, Jinhua, Yiwu, as a heavy logistics area, many goods to Japan are transported by sea. Learned from several large logistics companies in Yiwu, Sendai port is not a commercial gathering area, but has little impact on Yiwu's logistics industry.

Jin Xufeng, general manager of Yiwu Jinlong International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd., said that Yiwu's maritime transportation to Japan was mainly concentrated in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya ports, and was basically unaffected through the East China Sea. According to the introduction, there are few Japanese traders in Sendai near Yiwu. They have only two companies. "At present, the relevant representatives of the two companies have broken down, and there is no contact with them, and the company has no backlog of goods shipped to this port." {page_break}

Japan's earthquake hits global luxury

The occurrence of any major disaster will affect the development of the luxury market in a disaster country at the psychological level of consumption. "People will suddenly feel that luxury has no effect, and the former purchase is very stupid and repelled."

Japan's Circulation Association said that after the Japanese earthquake, the luxury market will suffer a great impact. This kind of impact will last for a certain period of time. The consumption concept of luxury goods will be less "justified" than in the past.

It is understood that at present, the major luxury brands have begun to consider whether to reduce investment and market share in Japan. Mr. Angelo Cosmaro, the global sales director of Bellora, the famous high-end bedding in Italy, said recently that the Japanese market will be inspecting as soon as possible after the earthquake, so as to put forward a new development strategy in the market environment and reconsider whether to adjust the layout of the Asian market.

For many luxury brands around the world, the Japanese earthquake will be their devil. According to relevant statistics, Japan accounts for 11% of the global luxury consumer market, and is the number one market for many luxury goods giants.

Japan earthquake hits luxury price

As the market worried about the sales prospects of luxury goods in Japan, luxury shares fell sharply on Monday. Japan is the world's third largest luxury consumer market, and also an important source of profits for Hermes, Burberry, LVMH and the group.

Analysts said that Japan, which accounts for 11% of global luxury goods sales, is in recovery, but Friday's major earthquake and the panic caused by nuclear radiation are expected to damage its economy and seriously affect consumer market.

MF Global said, "the luxury industry will be seriously affected in the short term after the Japanese earthquake last Friday".

"Because the European consumer industry is affected by the earthquake, we believe that the" early stage "of the luxury market is still very fragile.

Japan is now slightly ahead of China in terms of luxury sales, second only to the world's largest consumer luxury goods company.

But by nationality, combined with domestic and overseas purchases, the Japanese are still the largest luxury consumers in the world before Americans and Chinese.

Japan accounted for 19% of Hermes sales, 9% of LVMH sales, 16% of PPR Group sales, and 12% of the Swiss peak group.

Tod 's shares were also dragged down, the morning trading price fell 3%, while in Japan, nearly 7% of Burberry's stock price fell 6%.

Greenwich time 9 hours and 3 minutes, LVMH shares fell 3.3%, Hermes 2.12%, 2.3% peaks, Burberry 5.45%, PPR 1.75%, Tod 's 1.19%.

Meanwhile, Finland fashion company Marimekko shares fell 3.6% after the Japanese earthquake, and Japan is its largest overseas market.

Antti Koskivuori, a Evli analyst based in Helsinki, said, "basically, 7% of their sales are from Japan, so a slight drop in share prices is a natural thing."

Sarasin, a Swiss asset manager, said in a report, "if a nuclear accident causes global pressure, it will have a more negative impact on luxury companies. The sale of luxury goods depends on people's confidence. {page_break}

Overseas purchasing luxury goods affected by earthquake in Japan

"I shipped nearly 10000 yuan a month, basically based on milk powder, cosmetics and electronic products." Xu Ze told reporters that I am a Fujian Fuqing people, many unrelated relatives are in Japan, and this is the same as that of many people.

At present, Japanese goods account for a relatively high proportion of overseas purchases in Fuzhou, Fujian. On the one hand, Japan's cosmetics, milk powder, daily necessities and electric women have the highest output, and they are producing many unscrupulous customers. On the other hand, the price of extravagant products purchased in Europe and the United States is much cheaper than that in China, and many businesses also come from Japan to sell locally.

The industry estimates that even the most optimistic estimate will not be resumed for weeks. Department merchants have issued a notice to take charge of Japanese purchase orders. "What is more worrying now is that some businesses may encounter sunrise after that." Xu Ze said that the Japanese nuclear power explosion caused many customers to be very worried. Although it is not known what the final impact will be, however, one kitchen manager has never offered to buy Japanese milk powder.

Visiting Japan is also under attack.

The impact of the earthquake on the purchasing industry can be immediate, and the earthquake is synchronous.

Now, with the strong earthquake in Japan, the enthusiasm of the city's public has hit each other. Although the routes to Japan are generally famous cities such as Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka and Nagoya, the overseas shopping mall for luxury goods has spread to Fuzhou for shopping and shopping. The Sendai and other places affected by the disaster are not tourists. However, considering that Japan is entering a more urgent form, its convenience will be greatly affected. Because it is difficult to assess the impact of the late stage, at present, Fuzhou's major groups are closely related to the Japanese land acquisition agencies, and are concerned about local developments. Reporter Jiang Hai

Reporters from Fuzhou online sellers union learned that they are in Japan's freight flow channels to explain the movement, at present, many Japanese shopping malls shelves have been robbed empty. Because the electricity supply and transportation are not smooth, the department stores are generally bankrupt. The most troubling thing is that many Japanese business people are now unable to get in touch.

It is reported that because of the coming of the flower season, Japanese flower appreciation has recruited many local visitors. At present, all the major travel agencies in Fuzhou have no 8 left and left routes to take over. A travel agency set off in Japan on March 23rd for 6 days to enjoy the cherry blossoms. The price quoted is 6780 yuan per person, though the price is much higher than usual.

Yesterday, a number of travel agents in Rongcheng, leaving the relevant business people told reporters that the Japanese tour business must be greatly affected.

"The maximum amount of money on hand is for a week, and the female will not return within six months." Yesterday, a large Japanese commodity purchasing shop in Fuzhou told reporters from Xu Ze that because the commercial situation in Japan was close to the expected impact of the great earthquake, the collection and purchase business of collecting and buying the local secret business has met with a severe impact. The earthquake also made Japan travel to the market.

At present, it is about to enter the peak season of conservative travel to Japan.

Overseas purchasing luxury goods shop "just showed the sudden events of the Japanese earthquake on TV. Ten minutes later, a Japanese relative on my MSN who helped me to purchase goods came to the scene and said," the whole thing is out of order. The people who bring the goods can't come. It may be delayed for a while. After more than ten minutes, he came again and again to say that the flight had been grounded, and the shipment could not go. Xu Ze said that at the beginning, the gurus thought they could get out of the difficulty very quickly, but at the moment, the situation was getting better and better.

Impact of tsunami on luxury market in Japan

In Beijing on March 16th, equity analysts at MF Global pointed out that in Japan, nearly half of women over the age of 20 own a Louis Weedon handbag. So if you are the LVMH group, the father of the popular handbag in France, you have to worry about what impact Japan's earthquake and tsunami will have on you.

In Japan's largest luxury market, these luxury brands, such as Coach and Tiffany in the US, Richemont, Cartier and Montblanc in Switzerland, will continue to decline for some time. When investors see this trend, the share price of these luxury brands has been greatly affected.

MF Global estimates that Japan accounts for 23% of the world's hard and soft luxury market share, while China has a 13% share. However, 18% of the luxury goods sold in Japan are bought by Chinese tourists. They may move to other places, such as Singapore, to buy luxury goods.

As news of possible further damage to Japan's nuclear power plant starts on Tuesday, the total sales of luxury goods in Japan will be reduced by more than 4%. {page_break}

Analysis of the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the textile and garment sector

We analyzed the impact of the Japanese earthquake on China's textile and garment industry, and screened and summarized the relatively high proportion of export companies. We believe that the companies with relatively high incomes in Japan will suffer negative pressure in the short term, but the medium and long term demand will be restored. In the future, it may be stimulated by post disaster reconstruction to stimulate consumption.

Reason:

In terms of export manufacturing, China's textile and apparel exports to Japan amounted to US $21 billion 258 million in 2010, accounting for 10.7% of the total exports of the industry. Japanese textile and apparel consumption accounts for 3~5% of the world, and short-term fluctuations will not have a significant impact on the demand side of the whole industry.

The order received (the next 2~3 months shipped) is not affected. Soon after the earthquake, companies were not yet required to adjust orders for Japanese customers. The export orders for textile and garment industry are usually determined in advance of 2~3 months. The credibility of Japanese customers is relatively high, and the possibility of cancelling the order is smaller. However, some factories in China will not take the initiative to share the pressure and negotiate with Japanese customers.

Recently, Japan's energy supply is tight, and some retail stores are closed down. The consumption desire of the people in the disaster area may be reduced, and local clothing retailing will be negatively affected. Demand for orders is likely to be weak in the coming months.

Clothes are necessities of life. When the Japanese people return to normal life, clothing consumption demand will resume and may be stimulated by post disaster reconstruction.

Therefore, in the medium to long term, the negative impact is small.

The upstream manufacturing industry accounts for 002486 of the A share listed companies with relatively high export earnings to Japan: Jialin Jie (Japan: 28.54%), 600233 Great Yang creation (Asia except China: 25.21%), 002494 shares of China (East Asia: 19.73%), 600626 Shenda shares (Japan and South Korea: 15.65%), 600735 Xinhua Jin (Japan: 13.24%), 000726 Lu Tai A (Japan and South Korea: 000726)

Hong Kong stock companies include: 2313.HK Shenzhou International (Japan: 52.54%), 551.HK Yuyuan group (Asia: 39.4%), 1382.HK mutual Textiles Holdings (Japan and other markets: 14.12%), 2698.HK Wei Qiao textile (East Asia: 7.36%)

In terms of brand clothing, China's local clothing brands are rarely sold in Japan, and the denial of production links is relatively low, so it is almost unaffected. However, some listed companies in Hong Kong share brand and retail business in the Japanese market, and their performance may be negatively affected: 3818.HK China trend (Japan: 14.29%)

In addition, some Hong Kong share consumer Brand Company have Japanese business, which will be negatively affected in the near future: 973.HK L'OCCITANE (Japan: 23.7%), 1086.HK good kid (Japan and other new markets: 12.34%).

The impact of Japan earthquake on my clothing industry

The impact of the Japanese earthquake on China's textile and clothing exports is mainly due to the fluctuation of export data during the disaster season, but subsequent supplementary consumption may pull exports to Japan to a certain extent. As a result, the earthquake has little impact on China's textile and garment industry's export to Japan. It has no effect on the operation of domestic brand clothing companies.

Japan is one of the main export places of China's textile and clothing products. The earthquake will have a temporary impact on exports and will have a limited impact on exports for the whole year. Exports to Japan account for about 10% of global exports. In the 10 year, affected by the stagnation of Japan's economic growth, the industry's export repair to the market was more difficult. Until October, the export growth rate showed a positive growth trend, significantly slower than Europe and the United States. But the great earthquake that broke out in March 11th has undoubtedly made Japan's economy grow worse. From the industry point of view, we believe that the impact of the earthquake and tsunami is more reflected in the short term due to the obstruction of sea transportation, which affects the delivery of orders and the temporary delay of orders. In the medium and long term, the industry is more favorable than Japan's promotion of textile and clothing demand after the disaster. Therefore, on the whole, we believe that the impact of Japan's disaster on industrial exports is only temporary and has limited impact on exports for the whole year.

Exports declined in February, and the follow-up does not exclude the monthly impact of the earthquake on exports. The annual export growth rate is expected to be 10%-15%. In February, exports of textiles, clothing and textiles and clothing decreased by 11.8%, 20.5% and 17.4% respectively, mainly due to the factors of export before the Spring Festival. The cumulative export growth in 1-2 months was 20.84%, 9.47% and 13.56% respectively. The future export may be affected by high cotton prices, while the monthly impact of the earthquake is not excluded. The whole industry's export growth is expected to be 10-15% in the whole year.

On the impact of some listed companies: according to the situation learned from the listed companies, Huafu color spinning, Shandong Ruyi and xunxing shares (YKK production base is mainly distributed in Dalian, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Southeast Asia, etc., thus producing unaffected) export enterprises, because its main export markets are mostly concentrated in Europe and the United States and so on, so it has not been directly affected. Japan's exports account for a relatively high proportion, including Lu Tai and Da Yang's creation. The proportion of exports to Japan accounts for about 10% and 1/3 of the two companies, respectively. We believe that the existing orders may be delayed by the traffic jam, but they have little impact on the annual orders.

Investment advice: for the manufacturing industry, we suggest that we should focus on the fundamentals and valuations of the company. Lu Tai can focus on the stimulation of the market according to the monthly export data. In the medium term, we can focus on the better growth of Weixing and Huafu. {page_break}

The Japanese earthquake caused Burberry's stock price to drop sharply.

The share price of the British stock market rose due to the leakage of nuclear power plants after the Japanese earthquake. The biggest stock prices in the UK opened up slightly on Monday, but Burberry's stock price was down because the market was worried that Japan's demand for luxury goods had fallen.

At 9:32 GMT, the UK FTSE100 index rose 5.18, an increase of 0.1% to 5833.85.

The impact of the Japanese earthquake on British stock prices is different, and Burberry, the fashion company, is at the top of the list. As investors worried about the demand for high-end products, they fell by 5.4%.

Although British listed insurance companies did not suffer losses in Japan, their share price was also affected by the earthquake. StandardLife fell 1.9%, Resolution fell 1.5%.

Aggreko, a temporary electricity supplier, ranked first in 5.3%, while energy company BG group benefited directly from the sharp increase in demand for nuclear energy after the earthquake in Japan, and share prices also climbed.

The two stocks recorded huge volume.

UBS said in a report, "the leakage of nuclear power plants has led to a surge in demand for liquid natural gas in Japan. This will reduce the oversupply of global LNG and play a supporting role in the recovery of European gas and energy prices. "

Xstrata and Drax groups are also benefiting from coal-fired suppliers, as demand for non nuclear energy is booming.

The share price of other mineral resources has also been significantly supported, and Rio Tinto index has increased by 2%.