Japan'S Earthquake Shook The Global Economy.

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Magnitude 9

Japan, as one of the world's largest industrial and export giants, will surely face the world.

Many analysts said that a major earthquake in Japan, the world's third largest economy, will not cause a direct impact on China, but will spread to many industries around the world, which will have an indirect impact on the Chinese economy.

Japan: GDP or down 1%

The huge disaster has cast a shadow over the Japanese economy that has just recovered.

Since last autumn, Japan's economy has been in a doldrums.

The big earthquake has forced many enterprises to stop production, which will directly affect the business performance of enterprises, resulting in a decline in the efficiency of enterprises, affecting the income of workers and reducing the willingness to consume.

Pessimistic analysis believes that this will further exacerbate the deflation of Japan's economy, which is extremely detrimental to Japan's current weak economic recovery.

Japan's economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was -1.3%, which has just turned 2% in the first quarter of this year, mainly relying on exports of automobiles, materials and semiconductor products.

Economic analysts expect that the earthquake will reduce the national GDP by 1%, and the recovery period may take a year.

The optimistic view holds that the impact of disasters on the economy is different at the micro level and the macro level, and that disasters can damage the stock of a country's wealth, but GDP is gross domestic product, and statistics are increments of one year.

The country's future reconstruction of damaged roads and airports is all about creating GDP.

The difference between rebuilding the created GDP and the GDP that the disaster disrupts the operation of the enterprise is generally a "net impact" of the disaster on a country's economic growth.

Analysts believe that this "net impact" is generally not too great.

Kong Qingfeng, Professor of economics at Shandong University, said in an interview with reporters that Japan has been carrying out the policy of "establishing the country by industry" for a long time, and that overseas investment has been huge. Sendai, a region with more serious disasters, accounts for a larger proportion of its economy, with only a fragmentary distribution of industries, and that its industries are spreading more widely around the world.

"Because of the core technology in many areas, the lucrative profits and the favorable infrastructure conditions, the impact of the earthquake and tsunami on Japan is only short-term. As long as the follow-up disaster is stable, it will recover very quickly."

"However, the tourism industry, which is the backbone of Japan's economy, may not be able to recover in the short term."

He said that from March to April each year, it was known as the golden age of Japanese tourism.

This year, the strong earthquake and the consequent nuclear leakage haze become a heavy Epee hanging on the head of Japan's tourism industry.

The devastating earthquake and tsunami, in addition to a heavy shadow on the "golden" season of Japan, are also stimulating a butterfly effect and spreading to Japan's Asian neighbors.

The industry expects that in the next spring and summer tourist season, there will be a series of chain reactions to the popular destinations of Japanese tourists outbound, such as India, Thailand and Hawaii.

China: trade affects both pros and cons

According to public information, China and Japan are the largest source of imports between China and Japan in 2010. China is Japan's largest trading partner and the largest export destination. Japan is China's third largest trading partner and third largest export destination.

Although statistics show that the Sino Japanese economy has maintained a hot trend, Kong Qingfeng, a professor at the school of economics, Shandong University, believes that Japan's investment in China has not been very positive due to the drag on bilateral relations.

The earthquake will help to improve bilateral relations and change the situation of "cool politics and hot economy" for many years, which will help promote further economic development of both sides.

Kong Qingfeng told reporters that the disaster was mainly caused by the northeast part of Japan, where the production of automobiles, electronic components and some building materials enterprises was in place, and the import of the above products in Shandong might be affected.

But he also said that because imports were mainly determined by domestic demand and that many imported products could be found to be replaced by other countries or regions, the impact of the disaster on our province's imports was limited.

"The real big problem may be the export to Japan."

Kong Qingfeng said that due to the destruction of maritime pport, ports and infrastructure, the export of Shandong enterprises was affected.

But on the other hand, this kind of influence is limited in the short term, and the market vacuum period after the closure of many industries in Japan and the huge domestic demand formed during the reconstruction of Japan will bring new market opportunities.

He further explained that the earthquake will increase imports of agricultural products to Japan, and the demand for steel, textiles, cement, building materials and other products will be greatly improved after the earthquake reconstruction, which are the traditional dominant industries in Shandong.

"In addition, Japan is a multi quake country. Taking into account the combined effects of post earthquake recovery and nuclear radiation, enterprises may accelerate the pfer of foreign industries and increase the establishment of new R & D institutions overseas, which will undoubtedly become an opportunity to attract Japanese investment in China."

Kong Qingfeng said.

Global: big earthquake or drag on economic recovery

As the world's third largest economy, the economic impact of Japan's earthquake has also rocked the global market.

Some analysts believe that the great earthquake may slow down the pace of world economic recovery, but it will not hurt it much.

Given the importance of Japan in the global industrial chain, the temporary export interruption caused by the earthquake will inevitably affect other countries' enterprises.

For example, the Japanese chip industry accounts for 1/5 of the global market, and the best-selling electronic products such as Apple iPad also rely heavily on Japanese manufacturers' NAND flash memory.

For example, Boeing's 787 type "dream" airliner's main wing and main landing gear are all supplied by Japanese manufacturers.

Professor Zhang Donghui, director of the Business School of Shandong University at Weihai and director of the Northeast Asia Economic Research Center, told reporters: "the Japanese economy has great influence on the surrounding countries. This is evident from the changes in stock market in recent days.

After the Japanese earthquake, Japan's stock market continued to record low, and the Asia Pacific stock market also fell.

Since then, Japan has launched a government bailout plan. As of 17, the Bank of Japan has injected 31 trillion yen into the market, and Asian stock markets have jumped.

We need to be vigilant that global inflation will deteriorate under the influence of three factors, such as supply reduction in Japan, heavy commodity prices will rise again, and quantitative easing in Japan.

Other countries are not expected to follow Japan's easing policy lightly.

Zhang Donghui also said that in general, the general disaster will cause the depreciation of its currency.

But Japan is a very special country. In 1995, when the Hanshin earthquake occurred, the yen appreciated.

After the Japanese earthquake last Friday, the yen rose sharply against the US dollar in just a few days by nearly 300 basis points.

As the world's third largest currency after the US dollar and the euro, the sharp appreciation of the yen has undoubtedly had a huge impact on the global financial market.

This is because some overseas funds go back to the mainland from abroad to prepare for the post disaster reconstruction. These funds must first be converted into yen, so the demand for yen in the foreign exchange market is increasing rapidly, prompting the appreciation of the yen.

The future needs to be concerned about the intensity of the return of the yen and its impact on the regional economy.

At present, the appreciation of the Japanese yen is good for our export enterprises.

In addition, Japan's debt burden is already the heaviest in industrialized countries, and its debt to GDP ratio (GDP) is close to 200%.

Therefore, the Japanese bond market is likely to affect the global market, causing a chain reaction.

In this regard, China's financial sector should enter a state of alert.

Coastal economic development needs comprehensive consideration

The "worst news" brought by the Japanese earthquake is the leakage of radioactive materials at Fukushima nuclear power plant and a series of reactor building explosion accidents.

For a while, mankind has added a new "worry" to the use of nuclear energy.

It is understood that the resulting unease has been "fermenting" in the southern German city of Stuttgart, and local residents are demanding immediate closure of all nuclear power plants in Germany.

In recent years, the global nuclear power construction has entered a peak period. Data show that nuclear power has exceeded 16% of the total global electricity generation.

Zhang Guanghui believes that in view of the increasing depletion of traditional energy industries such as oil and coal, there will be no fundamental change in the global trend of nuclear energy utilization. The key is to prevent nuclear disasters from happening again.

Zhang Guanghui said that the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the nuclear power plant has brought important enlightenment to the development of nuclear power safety, that is, the third generation of nuclear power technology using the "passive safety" system is more secure than the two generation technology in dealing with earthquakes, and safety plans should be made from the state to the nuclear power enterprise level.

The Japanese earthquake also triggered the development of coastal economy in China.

Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of industry and Commerce of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the disaster hit cities in Japan's coastal areas suffered heavy losses during the earthquake, which made us reconsider the coastal economy and the harm brought by the coastal economy.

Yuan Gangming said that China is a continent country, laying heavy industry on the coastal areas and ignoring the vast inland hinterland.

The development of the coastal areas can only result in the development of the offshore areas, and the poorer areas are far away from the sea.

Building large petrochemical industries along the coast, such as Jiangsu and Guangdong, only considers pportation convenience and ignores possible pollution.

Under such circumstances, the proposal for inland development should be taken seriously.