Inflation Escalate &Nbsp, From Raw Material To Terminal Market.

Wang Qin, director of the enterprise management office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that this trend will not change because of the rising cost of labor caused by rising labor costs. Enterprises also need to have some cost control capability. He also warned that in order to deal with future inflation, the central bank will further tighten liquidity while affecting the development of SMEs at the macro level. This requires the relevant departments to treat differently, and provide a favorable environment for the development of SMEs and increase support for SMEs.

　 The tide of price rises seems to be spreading, and its price is right. Inflationary pressure The conduction needs urgent attention.

Since March, agricultural products (including meat, Cereals, Oils and vegetables) (000061) are still climbing slightly. The difference is that the rise has started from the most upstream raw materials to the intermediate products and terminal products, which has led to price increases in traditional competitive fields such as daily chemicals and household electrical appliances.

Behind this new wave of price rises, in view of domestic factors, in addition to the excess liquidity in the past, the rising cost of raw materials and labor has led to increased cost pressures and driving up prices. From the international point of view, the import inflation caused by international commodities has been aggravated by the impact of the US quantitative easing policy, the Japanese earthquake and the turbulence in Libya.

The pressure of inflation is still great for the future, but stabilizing inflation expectations is even more important than managing the current inflation level. Experts also warned that special attention should be paid to the impact of inflation, such as tightening liquidity, which would affect the development of SMEs, which directly related to the current employment situation.

The spread of price increases

"The price of daily chemicals such as laundry detergent has not changed yet, but we have received notice from the manufacturers concerned that the price of some products will be raised in April 1st." In March 30th, a salesman in a large supermarket in Fangzhuang, Beijing, told reporters about a brand of laundry detergent on the shelf.

In fact, it was due to raw materials and Rising labor costs And other factors, Unilever, Procter & Gamble and other daily chemical enterprises have been reported collective price rise, and the Master Kong instant noodles will also increase the price third times in half a year. The latest news is that the national development and Reform Commission expressed great concern about the price increase. It has interviewed relevant enterprises and understood the situation, and clearly stated that all kinds of enterprises should strengthen their social responsibilities, not to pick up the price of cars at any time, and not to collude prices and raise prices. Meanwhile, Kangshifu responded promptly, and the price of barreled noodles was postponed.

In addition to daily necessities and food, the price of raw materials such as copper and aluminum has been on the rise since 2009, and the price of household appliances such as air conditioners has been rising. {page_break}

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Commerce, last week (from March 21st to 27th), the market price of edible agricultural products and means of production monitored by the Ministry of Commerce rose slightly. Among them, grain retail prices rose steadily, flour prices were unchanged from the previous week, and rice prices rose by 0.4%. In the main production data, rubber, nonferrous metals, chemical products, mineral products, building materials and energy prices rose, prices of light industrial raw materials were flat, and the prices of agricultural materials and steel decreased.

On the other hand, affected by the US quantitative easing policy, Japan's earthquake and the turmoil in Libya, commodity prices, including crude oil, basic metals and agricultural products, are also gradually rising. For example, after a record high of $105.75 a barrel in New York, the market has remained at a high level of more than 100 yuan. Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, believes that the current inflation situation in China can be described as "internal and external troubles". The price of domestic labor is soaring, and the dry weather has fueled the anticipation of food prices, and international commodity prices have surged to new heights.

Inflationary pressures in the future

"At present, the inflationary pressures at home are still relatively large. There are many reasons for this, but mainly in the previous two years. international financial crisis During this period, the curse of global liquidity has included the issuance of domestic money and excessive credit. " He Jun, a senior analyst at Ampang group, said that compared with the price rise of agricultural products such as "garlic you ruthless" and "beans you play" last year, the current price effect shows signs of proliferation, and has been spanmitted from raw materials to intermediate products and terminal products. "The price increase in the competitive field like daily chemicals and so on is closely related to the life of the ordinary people, so we need to attach great importance to it."

Another notable thing is the pressure on inflation caused by rising labor costs. This year's government work report points out that the minimum wage standard has been steadily raised during the "12th Five-Year" period. Last year, 30 provinces and municipalities nationwide raised the minimum wage standard, an increase of about 24%. "Since entering this year, 6 provinces have once again raised the minimum wage standards. This year there will be quite a number of provinces and municipalities to continue to raise the minimum wage standards." Yin Yumin, Minister of the Ministry of human resources and social security, said at the two sessions of the National People's Congress.

It is understood that from April 1st onwards, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, Zhejiang, Shanxi, Tianjin and other provinces and municipalities will raise the minimum wage standards.

The range ranges from 14% to 26%. Among them, Shanghai will be adjusted from 1120 yuan to 1280 yuan per month, Tianjin will be adjusted from 920 yuan to 1160 yuan, and Shenzhen will be spanferred to 1320 yuan / month to become the highest in the country.

"The rise in labor costs will lead to the rise of manufacturing products, and even to the service sector, and inflation will spread even more." He Jun said. {page_break}

As for the current situation of international bulk commodities, the 2010 international financial market report released by the people's Bank of China said that in 2010, the prices of crude oil, basic metals, agricultural products and other commodity prices increased substantially under the demand of emerging market economies and the overall liquidity of the financial market. In 2011, the above demand factors still exist. In addition, the global abnormal climate is increasing and the political and social situation in some parts of the region is unstable, which limits the supply of some commodities. Therefore, the international commodity prices still have room for growth. Major commodity prices are expected to remain high in 2011.

Stabilizing inflation expectations is more important

"For inflation, it can be understood from three angles. From the industrial point of view, it is due to the increase of raw materials and costs of enterprises. From the perspective of banks, it is due to the liquidity surplus caused by China's monetary policy since the financial crisis. From the perspective of investment and consumption, the investment rate of our country has increased from 41% in 2005 to 47.6% in 2010, which is much higher than that in other countries. The structure of investment and consumption is seriously unbalanced." Wang Qin, director of the enterprise management office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, but the wage increase of our workers is lower than the level of economic growth, and consumption can not be driven up. "From the perspective of investment, state-owned enterprises occupy more and more projects, but the efficiency of investment is very low. This causes a large amount of money to precipitate and indirectly increases inflation." He Jun said.

For the future inflation trend, there are two views in the industry. The first is that the trend of CPI is high before and after this year. The pressure in the first quarter is large, but then it will gradually weaken. Another view is that inflation will last longer this year, and it will probably exceed 4%. "I am not optimistic about the future inflation situation, because the cause of inflation is comprehensive, and it is difficult to solve it by single means." He Jun said, it seems now that stabilizing inflation expectations is more important than managing inflation.

"The current inflation situation is not only existing in our country, but also in many countries around the world, including the developed countries such as the United States, Britain and some developing countries, which also shows the fragility of the global economy in the process of recovery." Wang Qin said. But he also believes that this trend will not change because of the rising cost of labor caused by rising labor costs, and enterprises also need to have some cost control capability.

Wang Qin also warned that in order to deal with future inflation, the central bank will further tighten liquidity at the macro level, but at the same time it will have an impact on the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. This requires the relevant departments to treat differently, and to provide a good environment for the development of SMEs, and to increase support for SMEs.