Shandong Dezhou: Reasons And Countermeasures For Growing Cotton Growing Area

Since the launch of the new cotton market in 2010, cotton prices have been riding on the roller coaster for the first time. They have continued to rise sharply and hit the highest historical prices. They reached a peak in early November and then fell sharply. By the end of December, the purchase price of seed cotton remained at 6 yuan / kg, and lint remained at 28000 yuan / ton. What impact does cotton price fluctuate on the whole cotton industry? The author conducted an investigation.

Cotton prices rise and fall
　　 Shandong Dezhou is one of the key cotton producing areas in China. The annual cotton planting area is 200-300 mu. However, the cotton field area in 2010 was only 1 million 550 thousand mu, 32% less than the previous year, the smallest area in nearly 11 years. In the middle and August of last year, a continuous large range of high intensity rainfall and cloudy weather occurred in the region, which had a great impact on cotton yield and quality. The average yield per seed cotton was only 410 kg, which was more than 20% lower than that in the normal year.
Since the launch of new cotton in 2010, the purchase price of local seed cotton has soared rapidly due to factors such as domestic cotton production and demand increase. Almost every day a price can be described by "Crazy". In early September, the purchase price of seed cotton was about 4.20 yuan / kg, then continued to rise, and rose to 5.2 yuan / jin at the end of September. After the national day, it continued to rise sharply, reaching the highest level of 7.20 yuan / kg in November 10th, rising 71% in two months, double the same period last year, and hit the highest price ever. The sale price of lint rose from 18300 yuan / ton in early September to 32000 yuan / ton in November 10th, or 75%, up 128% from the same period last year.
By 2010, the national cotton production reduction, domestic cotton The gap widening, and Hot money Speculation and other factors, cotton prices rose too fast, too large, serious virtual high. After November 11th, the state adopted measures to control the cotton market, and cotton prices began to fall sharply. At the end of November, the purchase price of grade four seed cotton dropped to 5.30 yuan / kg, down 1.90 yuan / Jin compared with November 10th, and the price of lint cotton dropped to 26000 yuan / ton per ton, down 6000 yuan per ton. High price acquisition did not sell cotton enterprises in time, and prices were upside down and there was a loss. By the end of December, seed cotton prices were slowly raised to about 6 yuan / kg, and lint was raised to around 28000 yuan / ton.

Increase in yield of cotton seed
In 2010, cotton production in Dezhou was greatly reduced, but the price was higher, and the income of cotton farmers increased.
Seed cotton income: according to the average yield of 410 Jin, the average selling price is 5.70 yuan / Jin, the output value of Mu is 2337 yuan, and the direct cost of planting is 395 yuan / mu (90 yuan for base fertilizer, 35 yuan for machine ploughing, 60 yuan for seed, 15 yuan for planting, 20 yuan for plastic film, 60 yuan for pesticide, 93 yuan for dressing, and 60 yuan for irrigation.
Grain income: Wheat average price of 1.02 yuan / Jin, corn 0.96 yuan / Jin, according to a quarter of wheat, a quarter of corn, wheat average yield of 1020 catties, corn average yield of 1120 kg per mu, the output value of grain 2115 yuan. The cost of direct planting of wheat per mu is 351 yuan per mu and corn planting cost is 298 yuan / mu. The output value of Mu is deducted from direct planting cost (excluding labor cost), plus 83 yuan per mu of grain direct subsidy and comprehensive agricultural subsidy, and the income of grain Mu is 1559 yuan.
Planting cotton is more than 398 yuan per mu. If more cotton is planted, people will be paid more than 200 yuan (0.50 yuan per kilogram), which is 200 yuan more than grain production. The advantages of planting cotton are not obvious.

Spinning enterprises struggling to survive
As cotton prices rose sharply, the price of cotton yarn in Dezhou also rose rapidly, reaching the highest level on 10-15 November. The mainstream price of combed c32s pure cotton yarn was 42500 yuan / ton, up 16300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of September, or 62%, an increase of 22400 yuan / ton, or 112% over the same period last year.
After November 15th, with the sharp decline in cotton prices, yarn prices continued to fall, and the entire cotton textile industry chain was in a serious wait-and-see view. Facing the increasing stock of cotton yarn, the cotton mill has to cut down the price of cotton yarn continuously in order to seize the limited market. By the end of December, the mainstream price of the local combed c32s pure cotton yarn was 35500 yuan / ton, 7000 yuan / ton lower than the highest price, and some of the high quality yarns were reduced by around 10000 yuan. Cotton textile enterprises are most afraid of cotton prices fluctuate, cotton prices are not stable enough to take orders, can not arrange production. In recent months, Dezhou textile enterprises are mainly short, small and fast.

The area is hard to grow in 2011.
Although cotton prices hit a record high in 2010, the yield of cotton seed was higher than that of grain crops, but farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting was not high in 2011. The main reasons are:
First, the mechanized operation rate of seed cotton is low, time consuming and labor consuming. From grain to harvest, grain is basically mechanized and less employed. During the whole growth period of cotton, besides seeding, mechanization can be realized. Others, such as production management, medication and pick-up, need to be completed manually. Two, the actual income of seed cotton is not high. Although the yield of seed cotton was higher than that of grain in 2010, it was lower than other economic crops such as capsicum and vegetables. Three, the government subsidized cotton seed. Grain crops are subsidized by improved varieties, grain subsidies and comprehensive subsidies for agricultural products. The total subsidy is nearly 100 yuan per mu, and only 15 yuan per mu is provided for seed cotton. There is no comprehensive subsidy for seed cotton subsidies and agricultural subsidies. The four is to increase the cost of cotton picking. A labor force can manage five or six mu of cotton at most. It can only hire people for picking up more than 60 yuan per day, and the cost of collecting flowers per mu is about 200 yuan per day, which greatly increases the cost of seed cotton. In 2010, the cotton price was so high that Wucheng and Xiajin counties had more than 30 mu of cotton seeds, and they were employed to pick up cotton. The seed cotton price was less than 6 yuan / Jin basically not making money (in the past year, more than 500 catties per mu, and only 410 Jin in 2010). Five, it is better to grow cotton than earn money out of work. At present, nearly 80% of the young people in the countryside work out for work, with a minimum monthly income of one thousand or two thousand yuan, reaching three to four thousand yuan, far more money than cotton seed and money. The six is local grain consolidation, which compresses the cotton field area. Dezhou puts forward the idea of agricultural development in the next few years: stabilizing grain, expanding vegetables and promoting cotton. The total cultivated land area is certain. To stabilize grain and expand vegetables, we can only compress the cotton area. The cotton yield per square year is about 180 Jin in the normal year. The potential of increasing the yield per unit area is very limited in the future.
According to the survey, even if cotton prices hit a record high in 2010, the planting area of Dezhou in 2011 would be very difficult to increase. Experts believe that in recent years, farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton has declined, and the state should introduce policies to increase the income of cotton farmers. First, we should increase the subsidy for seed cotton, introduce Cotton Subsidy, increase the comprehensive subsidy for cotton seed farming and increase the subsidy amount of cotton seed subsidy according to the grain subsidy method. Two, we should take part of the funds from the national cotton reserve profit and establish a high-quality cotton base county in the main cotton producing area, and support the development of cotton flower professional cooperatives.