Renewable Energy Will Usher In Development Opportunities.

At present, Japan's "3. 11" earthquake rescue is basically over, and the focus of future work will be pferred to post disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction.

This means that since March 11th, the price fluctuation of international petrochemical market caused by strong earthquakes will gradually become calm.

However, the nuclear leakage of the Fukushima nuclear power plant and the shadow of nuclear safety brought to the world will be hard to go, and the impact on the global energy structure and the development of petrochemical industry will also continue.

Analysts pointed out that Japan's earthquake has become a booster for renewable energy development.

Since the "3. 11" earthquake in Japan, the public's doubts and worries about the safety of nuclear energy and the use of the world have increased rapidly. The result is likely to be a lag in the utilization of nuclear energy.

In fact, after the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, many nuclear power utilization countries have postponed the nuclear power expansion plan.

Since March 14th,

According to the latest data released by the International Energy Agency, at present, there are 438 nuclear power plants worldwide, with a total installed capacity of 401 million kilowatts and an annual generation capacity of 27757 billion kwh.

In the next few years, even if only 1/5's nuclear power plant is closed by the Fukushima nuclear leakage accident, and the power gap will be converted to the most clean natural gas power generation in fossil fuels, the annual demand for new natural gas will reach 111 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 3.87% of global natural gas consumption in 2009.

According to Cai Wenbin, a researcher at Datong securities, the global installed capacity of nuclear power will drop by 10% to 50% from the original plan, that is, 55 million kilowatts to 275 million kilowatts.

If this part of the supply gap is replaced by natural gas, the annual demand for new natural gas will reach 76 billion to 380 billion cubic meters.

If these power gaps are all replaced by coal-fired power generation, the annual increase of 3.13 million tons of standard coal consumption is equivalent to 6.16% of world total coal output in 2010.

It is foreseeable that the replacement of nuclear power by natural gas or coal power generation will substantially increase fossil fuel consumption and boost its price rise.

Affected by the Japanese earthquake and the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, international oil prices have stood above $100 a barrel.

Unlike oil prices soaring before the financial crisis, international oil prices broke through the $100 mark at the time when the global economy just recovered and the demand for energy just recovered.

It shows that $100 per barrel is probably just the starting point for the new round of oil price rise. With the full recovery of world economy, oil prices will continue to rise steadily under the impetus of demand, and the era of high oil price and high cost will come true.

In the early days of high oil prices, coal prices may be relatively low, the competitiveness of coal chemical products will be significantly enhanced, stimulating the development of coal chemical industry, including China and South Africa, which are relatively rich in coal resources.

China's coal chemical industry has experienced short-term recession since 2008, and it will get short-term easing policy, and the profitability of related enterprises will be improved.

However, with the increase of global coal demand, the price of coal will continue to rise, reducing the price gap between oil and natural gas, and weakening the competitiveness of coal chemical products.

The pressure of carbon emission reduction caused by coal consumption and the tight supply of water resources will inevitably curb the unlimited expansion of the coal chemical industry.

On the contrary, those small hydropower, wind power, solar energy, hydrogen and biomass energy, which are small and expensive, and have not yet achieved breakthroughs in key technologies and are not competitive, are bound to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies after 5~10 years of tackling, developing and nurturing. Renewable energy will develop rapidly with the government's more attention and support policies.

Take the four largest economies in the US, China, Japan and the EU as examples. In the US, the Obama administration has passed a medium and long-term plan to develop renewable energy and clean energy for 50 billion US dollars. China plans to reach 11.4% of non fossil energy sources in 2015 and 30% in 2050. The Japanese government has learned from the lessons learned from the nuclear accident and has decided to strictly control and reduce the scale of nuclear power, vigorously develop wind energy, solar energy and tidal energy; the EU announced that by 2020, renewable energy will generate 20% of the total electricity generation.

Believe that under the pressure of multiple pressures, more countries will introduce policies to encourage renewable energy development, and promote renewable energy to enter the fast track of healthy development.

The US Department of energy even predicts that by 2035, the proportion of global renewable energy generating capacity to total electricity generation will increase from 18% in 2007 to 23%.