The Situation In Libya And The International Oil Market

Since March 19, 2011, western countries such as the United States, France and Britain have begun to agree. Libya Air strikes were launched into NATO's coalition forces to destroy Libya's air defense facilities. At present, the war is continuing, the situation in Libya is not clear, and the risk is expanding to the whole Middle East and North Africa.

As report goes: Kuwait Luke Zakki, chief executive of Petroleum Group, said in April 4th that the situation in West Asia and North Africa was unstable recently. Libya suspended crude oil exports because of the turmoil and pushed up the international market. oil price About 20%.

　　 The impact of the situation in Libya on the oil market

At present, Libya produces 1 million 650 thousand barrels of crude oil, accounting for about 2% of the world's total output. From the perspective of Libya's turmoil itself, the crisis will not have a big impact on the global oil market, but if the crisis worsens in the Middle East and North Africa, especially the major oil producing countries, the political turmoil will intensify, which will have a huge impact on the global oil market.

(1) the future situation of Libya will not cause the fourth oil crisis, but we need to be alert to the risk of the crisis spreading to the major oil producing countries in central and northeast Africa. First, the output of Libya crude oil is only 1 million 650 thousand barrels / day, that is, to facilitate the disruption of Biya oil production. At present, OPEC's oil producing countries have about 5 million barrels / day surplus capacity, which can completely make up for its shortfall. Second, after the three oil crisis, the major oil consuming countries have established an oil security system. The International Energy Agency has about 1 billion 600 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, which can reduce the risk of short-term supply shortage. Third, with the deepening of global economic integration, oil producing countries are unable to confront the western countries for their own interests, and the risk of substantial reduction in oil supply in the Middle East and North Africa is weakening.

However, we need to be alert to the recent turmoil in Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, Algeria and other countries. The geopolitical risk in Arabia world is escalating. Therefore, before the Libya war did not stop, a new crisis could happen at any time. This uncertainty would weaken the supply capacity of the crude oil market. In addition, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the oil export volume of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) declined slightly in February, due to the increase in the output of its member countries to supplement the lack of production in Libya, and the OPEC idle capacity dropped to the lowest level since the end of 2008.

(two) in the short term, international oil prices will continue to oscillate with the Libya war situation, but it does not rule out the sharp rise in oil prices due to the expansion of the crisis. In the short term, due to repeated changes in the war situation, this will affect the production and transportation of oil in Libya and surrounding areas, causing international oil prices to be shaken. If the crisis situation in Libya is further extended to the Middle East and North Africa, or this uncertainty will exist for a long time, it will have a significant impact on the international oil market expectations.

(three) the impact of the Libya crisis on China's oil supply is limited. In 2010, China's crude oil demand was 4.42 million tons, of which 2.39 billion tons of imported crude oil and 54% of foreign dependence were imported from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iran, Oman, Russia and other 46 countries or regions. Crude oil imports from Libya, Sultan, Yemen and Algeria, which are more volatile areas, account for 25 million 800 thousand tons, accounting for 10.8%, of which 7 million 370 thousand tons are imported from Libya, accounting for 3.1%. Moreover, China's oil cooperation projects in Libya are not many in itself, most of which are labor cooperation contracts, and the impact of Libya's war on the company is limited. Therefore, although turbulence in Libya and other regions may temporarily interrupt its crude oil exports, it has not affected the major importing countries in China, and thus has limited impact on China's oil supply. However, due to the potential expansion of the Libya crisis, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa is tense, and PetroChina and Sinopec have projects in Sultan, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and other countries. Sultan, Venezuela and Iraq have large projects. Therefore, we must guard against the impact on China's oil supply and actively adjust the layout of overseas investment.

　　 Countermeasures and suggestions on China's response to the Libya crisis

On the whole, the Libya war will reduce the partial supply of the international oil market in the short term, but the overall impact is less than the previous crisis in the Middle East and North Africa. The impact of this crisis on China's oil supply is generally limited. However, we can not exclude the possibility of further deterioration of the situation in Libya. We must closely follow this analysis and make a positive response.

We should strengthen international cooperation and protect China's oil market supply through various channels.

As the situation is likely to expand to the Middle East and North Africa, its impact on the international oil market will also deepen. We should open up diversified channels and adopt various flexible ways to strengthen international cooperation. We should actively promote the development of oil reserves and new energy, and enhance our ability to deal with unexpected and major crises.

When conducting overseas investments, we need to be prudent and strengthen the research and assessment of the host country's political risks.

Under the condition of guaranteeing the supply of domestic petroleum and petrochemical products, China's petroleum enterprises are an inevitable trend to expand overseas investment. Western Asia and North Africa are important areas for China to invest abroad. Due to the relatively intensive oil resources, it is also the focus of overseas investment by Chinese oil companies. An important revelation from the Libya crisis is that we must do a good job of investigating and assessing the political, economic, environmental and risk factors of the invested countries before we invest overseas, and establish a more comprehensive early warning mechanism to maintain prudence in foreign investment.

We should pay close attention to changes in the situation and take comprehensive measures to resist the impact of oil price fluctuations.

At present, China is in a critical period of economic transition from stable to stable growth. Due to a variety of comprehensive factors, inflation pressure is still relatively large. In the short term, we must pay close attention to the situation of Libya crisis and avoid the risk that the price fluctuation of oil and international commodities caused by the expansion of crisis and crisis will be superposed with the current price rising factors. We should consider increasing the elasticity of RMB exchange rate and reducing the import cost of raw materials such as oil through moderate appreciation of the renminbi. In the long run, China should improve the energy pricing mechanism, establish a long-term mechanism for energy conservation, optimize the energy consumption structure, vigorously promote the development of new energy sources, gradually reduce the dependence on oil, and steadily push forward the construction of oil futures market, enhance the pricing power of China in the international oil market, and effectively avoid the losses caused by the sharp fluctuations in oil prices. In addition, we should further improve the statistical system of oil reserves, publicize the data of oil reserves to the public, and guide market expectations rationally.