China's Foreign Trade Suffered The First Quarterly Deficit In Six Years.

According to customs statistics, from 1 to March this year, China entered Exit The total value is $800 billion 300 million, an increase of 29.5% over the same period last year. Of these, 399 billion 640 million US dollars were exported and 400 billion 660 million US dollars were imported. A total of $1 billion 20 million has been generated. trade deficit After the first quarter of 2003 and 2004, there was a quarterly trade deficit.

The General Administration of Customs released yesterday's first quarter of this year. foreign trade Import and export situation. Data show that in the first quarter of this year, China's total trade deficit was US $1 billion 20 million, compared with a surplus of US $13 billion 910 million in the first quarter of last year.

It is worth noting that this is the first quarterly deficit in China in 6 years. Data from the General Administration of Customs show that the deficit in the first quarter was mainly due to a rare deficit of $7 billion 300 million in China's foreign trade in February. This is a 11 month period, and China's foreign trade has once again seen a single month deficit. It is also the largest monthly deficit in the past 7 years.

Export reduction of labour intensive products

Yao Jian, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said that the main reason for the deficit in February was the continuous increase in import prices, and the import price rose by about 16% in February. But on the export side, the two week holiday of the Spring Festival has also become an important factor affecting exports.

According to customs statistics, from 1 to March, the total value of China's imports and exports was US $800 billion 300 million, an increase of 29.5% over the same period last year. Of which, exports of US $399 billion 640 million, an increase of 26.5%, and imports of US $400 billion 660 million, an increase of 32.6%.

But it is worth noting that in February, the export volume of traditional commodities, such as clothing, textiles and furniture, declined by 2 to 3 times compared with January. Taking footwear exports as an example, the total value of exports in February was $1 billion 960 million, and the total export value of these products amounted to US $6 billion 70 million in the first two months.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, said that in the first quarter, especially in February, the apparent slowdown in China's exports was greatly related to the shortage of migrant workers. "We went to the following investigation and found that this year's shortage of migrant workers is particularly serious, many factories only started in the first month of the lunar calendar, that is, the whole February was basically not started. Basically, in the 15th day of the first month of the Chinese lunar calendar, we resumed work in previous years.

Textile is an important traditional bulk export commodity in China. Jiang Hui, vice chairman of the China Textiles Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, told reporters yesterday, "we expect that in the next few years, the situation of recruitment difficulties and rising labor costs will be normal. At the same time, with the rapid development of textile industry in neighboring countries, China's textile and garment industry is facing the challenge of declining cost competitiveness. "

Therefore, the rising cost of domestic raw materials and labor will have an impact on the competitiveness of export products.

Yao Jian said that the Ministry of commerce also noted that in addition to Guangdong Province, the export of several coastal provinces and cities in February, especially the export of labor-intensive products, has declined, which has aroused our concern.

Export or decline of some industries

Data show that in the 1 quarter of this year, China's import value reached a record high for the first time in excess of US $400 billion, an increase of 5.1% over the fourth quarter of last year. The strong growth of imports led to a trade deficit of 1 billion 20 million US dollars, and then a trade deficit after the first quarter of 2003 and 2004. In the month of March, China's foreign trade import and export ring increased by 51.4% compared to February, of which exports grew by 57.3%, and imports grew by 46%.

It is worth noting that imports of major commodities have always kept growing in imports, and the average import price has generally recovered significantly. According to customs statistics, iron ore imports amounted to 1.8 million tons, an increase of 14.4%, the average import price was 156.5 US dollars per ton, up 59.5%, soybean (4540,42.00,0.93%) 10 million 960 thousand tons, 0.7% reduction, and import average price of 573.9 US dollars per ton, up 25.7%.

Huo Jianguo, President of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the import price of goods and the decline of imports were lower than that of exports, which was one of the main reasons for the deficit.

Jiang Hui said that in addition to the RMB exchange rate continued to rise and labor shortage problem, the current price of cotton (303001465.00,5.08%) skyrocketing, driven by the rapid rise of raw material prices, the company's production costs increased substantially, profit margins were squeezed, do not rule out the industry's future export decline. The international consumer market is still sluggish, and export prices are hard to raise significantly.

China's exports will maintain steady growth.

Gao Shanwen believes that the trade deficit will not last. China will still maintain its trade surplus for the whole year, but the difference will be 20% to 30% lower than that of last year. The trade balance is expected to be between 140 billion and 150 billion dollars. "China's exports will gradually recover in March, and in April, it should be completely back to normal."

Huo Jianguo said the deficit played a positive role in relieving the pressure of high foreign exchange reserves and RMB appreciation, but stabilizing exports is also important for maintaining stable growth of China's economy in the current stage. "Exports should be maintained at a 15% to 20% growth rate." while expanding imports, we must maintain steady growth in exports.

Yao Jian predicted that "from the whole year, China's exports will maintain a relatively stable growth." We will further enhance the quality and value added of export products, further enhance the brand and reputation of Chinese products, and further increase the technological content of China's exports. Such an orientation of export transformation reflects that we are paying more attention to the adjustment of export structure. Yao Jian said. {page_break}

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Experts said foreign trade data issued positive signals in the first quarter

The surplus will continue to be balanced.

Experts and scholars believe that the first quarter foreign trade data issued a more positive signal, China's foreign trade imports and exports towards a more balanced direction.

Zhou Shijian, senior researcher at the Sino US relations research center of Tsinghua University, said the first quarter foreign trade data sent a more positive signal. China's import and export is equal, stable exports, and efforts to expand imports are being implemented.

Zhou Shijian pointed out that China's foreign trade deficit in the first quarter can effectively alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation. Some countries believe that China's manipulation of exchange rate is also self destructive. "At present, China's RMB value is appropriate, and our country does not deliberately pursue the favorable balance of foreign trade."

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, believes that lowering the import tariffs, increasing the interest input to the import of high-end technology equipment and facilitating imports will be the three directions of China's package of "promoting the export" policy. Zhou Shijian said that the first quarter was the off-season export season, and the peak season of China's exports concentrated from July to October. Therefore, the trade deficit in the first quarter could not represent the trend of deficit in the future. Analysts pointed out that China's trade deficit in the first quarter is temporary. With the weakening of seasonal factors, the trade surplus will continue, but the growth will narrow and gradually become a balance.