Home >

In The First Quarter, The Economic Trend Was Stable &Nbsp; Inflation Pressure Did Not Decrease.

2011/4/12 11:51:00 48

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

Steady Inflation In The First Quarter

Country

Statistics Bureau

Will be released on the 15 day of the first quarter of the main macro

economic data

。

Analysts believe that from the published indicators, the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) year-on-year growth rate may be around 9.5%, down slightly from the previous quarter, consumer prices (CPI) up 5% may be up, the focus of short-term macroeconomic regulation is still to curb rising prices.

Economic growth Jiao Wenjian

The near future

manufacturing industry

PMI, consumer goods

retail

The growth rate of total indicators has declined to a certain extent, but the investment in fixed assets and industrial added value in cities and towns still grow faster.

The research report released by CICC expects that GDP will grow by 9.6% in the first quarter compared with 9.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, but the growth rate in the first quarter will be significantly lower than the fourth quarter of last year.

A person close to the macro-control department believes that the current economic growth situation in the first quarter is still optimistic, and the specific growth rate will be significantly higher than 9%.

From the three major needs, fixed asset investment continued to show a positive pulling effect; external demand growth was also relatively stable.

consumption

The growth rate is down, and it needs further observation. The reason is that it may be affected by the drop in consumption of products such as housing and automobiles.

Song Yu, a Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs, said that the growth of GDP in the first quarter was expected to be around 9.7%, which means that the annual annualized rate was 9.2% after the adjustment of the season, which was significantly lower than the fourth quarter of last year.

The appropriate slowdown in economic growth is mainly due to the early tightening policy.

In April 15th, the National Bureau of statistics will also publish four annulus economic data, including GDP, industrial added value above Designated Size, fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods.

The head of the National Bureau of Statistics said that for a long time, most of the monthly and quarterly statistical indicators in China only calculated the year-on-year speed, and did not calculate the speed of the ring.

Price pressure does not decrease.

According to the price monitoring data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the price of edible agricultural products dropped slightly in March, and the overall price level dropped somewhat in February.

Driven by the tail factor, as long as March CPI ring than the overall decline of less than 0.5%, the same month CPI will rise above last year's 5.1% in November, once again hit a new high.

In the context of a possible rebound in price inflation in March, analysts expect the CPI increase in the first quarter to reach 5%, up from 4.7% in the fourth quarter of last year.

CICC believes that food prices rose significantly in the second half of March. It is expected that CPI will rise 5.3% in the same month, creating a new high since the current round of price rises. "In the coming months, the central bank will raise the benchmark interest rate again, and accelerate the appreciation of the exchange rate to cope with imported inflation."

Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, said that in March, the price chain ratio declined, of which food prices fell by about 1%.

Compared with the same period, the CPI increase in March is expected to be 5.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from last month and an increase of about 6.7% of the industrial product price (PPI).