Lou Jiwei: The Global Economic Slowdown In 2012 Is Likely To Be Large.

2011/4/18 9:27:00 49

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Lou Jiwei'S Global Economic Slowdown And Monetary Policy

In addition to hot topics such as the renminbi, the speed of global economic development is also

Boao forum for Asia

Hot topic, chairman of China Investment Co

Lou Jiwei

It is indicated that although the recent global economic situation is more optimistic, the possibility that global economic growth rate will decline or even decline in 2012 will exist.

Lou Jiwei (China Investment Co chairman): we have always said that we are now in a situation of double track or multi track recovery. The recovery of strong muscles in emerging market areas is slower than that in developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan. Such a pattern will continue in 2011. We feel that, except Japan, the global economy and major economies will not be able to recur. However, we feel that the future is relatively pessimistic. I am afraid that in 2012, the possibility of a significant slowdown will be greater.

Lou Jiwei believes that the reason for this is that there is a dilemma in the current policy of every country.

On the one hand, to stimulate economic recovery, we need loose fiscal policy.

monetary policy

On the other hand, loose monetary policy has created a certain inflationary pressure. In the long run, finance is bound to be a deflationary trend. The developed countries are still in the process of deleveraging, which hinders economic recovery.

Lou Jiwei: we feel that this policy direction will not change in the first three quarters of this year, but in the fourth quarter to next year, there may be changes, so that the growth rate may be affected.