Textile And Apparel Orders Are Full &Nbsp; Price Increases Are Expected To Catalyze The Two Quarter Performance.

18, 1.32% of the textile and garment sector. Gain Ranking fifth in two cities. At present, the plate index It is only one step away from the historical high of last November.

　　 Textile and clothing The boom of the industry is to support this sector. Individual stock The biggest logic of strength. CICC even listed five reasons for promising textile and garment sectors, including annual reports and quarterly bulletin. achievement Bright, spring and summer orders will be full, and so on. The industry expects that some textile and apparel listed companies' performance growth is expected to reach 40%, and the order is expected to become a catalyst for the two quarter garment home textile stocks to become stronger.

Brilliant report

At present, a number of textile and apparel listed companies, which have announced the first quarter of the performance increase, have handed out the stunning "answer sheet": the cashmere industry, Huamao shares, Xinmin technology and Fu Tian share have all reported the growth of last year's annual report and the quarterly net profit this year. The two profit cycle of Huamao shares increased by 400% and 1400% respectively.

In the same period, the cashmere industry increased by 96% and 200% respectively. The company announced that the performance change was due to an increase in sales orders over the same period last year, and sales growth. The cashmere yarn export business expanded well, and the business income of similar products increased over the same period last year.

In the current disclosure of a quarterly textile and apparel listed companies, the proportion of new or increased positions of the fund is Jialin Jie, yipo technology and Samma garments. Among them, the 4 Fund and two private products favored yipo technology disclosed in a quarterly report in 2011. It is estimated that the first half of 2011 is up less than 30% in the first half of the year (2010 yuan in the first half of the year is 5 million 790 thousand yuan). The reason is that the company's clothing accessories business is in a normal state and orders are gradually increasing. However, due to the slow development of the hemp market, there is a deficit in the underemployment, and it is expected that the operating performance of the company will increase slightly in 2011.

Guo Haiyan, a researcher at CICC, believes that orders will be full in spring and summer, and the growth rate of MB and Semir orders will exceed 40% and 60% respectively, and home textile and casual men's clothing will be over 30%.

Li Xin, an analyst with CITIC Securities, said that in 2011 1-3, the retail sales of domestic textile and apparel increased by 22% in real terms, and the price increase did not significantly affect sales. In 2011, the actual growth rate of textile and apparel retail sales will still exceed 20%. The average growth rate of Plate Companies in autumn and winter is 30%, higher than that expected by the market. In addition to the price raising factor (about 20%), the "low inventory and cash sufficient" channels have enhanced the expansion intention, and the average net profit growth in 2011 is expected to reach 40%, better than last year. {page_break}

Product pricing is expected to be strong.

According to the data of clothing and textile listed companies last year, the prices of home textiles, men's wear, women's shoes and sportswear increased by 5%-20%. In this regard, Guo Haiyan believes that the strength of the brand price rise, the cost pressure is completely spanferred to the downstream, to maintain a high profit margin.

"From the perspective of the fine molecule industry, the driving factors of the profit growth and the competition pattern of the industry are different", Shen Wan analyst Wang Liping and Dai Hui Hui believe that the price of sportswear and casual wear is low and the main growth is mainly due to the increase of foreign brands. Currently, the competition is in the Red Sea area. While the commercial casual men's clothing and the high-end home textile price are higher, the cost pressure can be spanferred by raising the price, keeping the gross profit margin rising, the brand is stronger in China, and the competition pattern is in the blue ocean area.

Clothing and home textile income grew more and more in 2010. In 2011, a large part of the increase in clothing and home textile income was due to price increases. In the lower period of CPI, sports and casual wear are expected to rely on the rapid growth of sales volume to make the profitability stronger. In the CPI period, the business casual men's clothing and high-end high-end home textiles have higher profitability.

In terms of price earnings ratio, Guo Haiyan estimates that the 2011 P / E ratio of major clothing and apparel listed companies is close to the historical average, such as 24 times of the seven wolves (historical average 23.2x), the United States 24 times (historical average of more than 28x), Semir 26 times, three home textile companies 25~30 times, relative to the industry average of 40% above the growth rate of growth, the investment value is underestimated.

In terms of cost, Li Xin expects global cotton supply to grow by 8% in 2011 and 2012, and the inventory consumption ratio rose to 40%, and cotton prices in the later period will fall.

On policy, Li Xin said that in 12th Five-Year, the state launched the strategy of "enriching the people" and "domestic demand strategy". The industry growth rate will remain 15%-20% in the next 3-5 years, 2-3 times the growth rate of GDP.

Equity incentive is also an important reason why Guo Haiyan is optimistic about this sector. "Clothing industry listed companies are mostly private enterprises, most of the company's actual controllers and managers are the largest shareholders. Seven wolves, Mei bang, Semir, fuanna and other companies carry out equity incentive to professional managers team, and the power of performance release is adequate."

Optimistic about the two quarter performance

From the perspective of plate growth, the textile and garment industry (first class industry) won 3.5 percentage points in March, and the textile industry (two level industry) won 6.9 percentage points, and the clothing industry (two class industry) won the 0.2 percentage points of Shen Wan A A (A).

Wang Liping and Dai Hui Hui believe that a quarterly growth will be faster and the order will be expected to become a catalyst for the two quarter garment home textile industry rebound.

Li Xin recommended accelerated expansion, low valuation of seven wolves, good news birds, Hinur, as well as in the sub sectors of the obvious advantages of the American state dress, Luo Lai home textiles.

Wang Liping and Dai Hui Hui recommend a men's and home textile company with higher quarterly growth and better expected orders, including seven wolves, good luck birds, Luo Lai home textiles, fuanna and Meng Jie home textiles. They are particularly optimistic about the improvement of the performance of the brand men's clothing listed companies: "from the recent seven wolves to buy Hangzhou Kenna, to enter the luxury brand; the wedding birds invest in some garment companies, indirectly engage in international brand agents; YOUNGOR rebuilds the six major brand series of clearer products. We find that the current situation of China's men's clothing industry is to promote the strategy of multi brand prudently, to develop towards internationalization and high-end, and further enhance the overall brand image and influence. It is expected that this brand strength will be reflected in the rise of the flat sales and the improvement of the valuation level. "

In addition to the recommendation of seven wolves, Guo Haiyan is also optimistic about the 2 youth leisure clothing companies (Mei bang and Semir), which have an obvious tendency to replace sportswear. The logic is that the products are cost-effective, the channels sink clearly, and the stores are expanding rapidly, complying with the rapid growth trend of mass consumption. In addition, the home textile company (Luo Lai, Fu Anna, Meng Jie) industry is in the early stage of brand development, with a small base, fast growth and large future space. {page_break}

Five great advantages to build safety margins

1, April is about to publish annual reports and quarterly reports. Clothing companies generally achieve rapid growth. The average profit growth rate of 2010 annual report can reach 34%. This year's strong sales growth, a quarterly performance will be even better, an average of about 40%.

2, ordering will lock in revenue ahead of schedule, and the average annual growth of 2011 over 40% will be guaranteed. Orders for the spring and summer orders will be full. The US and Semir orders will grow by more than 40% and 60% over the same period, and home textiles and casual men's clothing will be over 30%.

3, the brand has the ability to raise prices, and the profit margin can be maintained or improved. The price of the dominant brand is rising and the cost pressure is completely spanferred to the downstream, so as to maintain a high profit margin.

4, brand clothing valuation is close to or lower than the historical average. 2011 P / E: 24 times of the seven wolves (historical average 23.2x), the United States 24 times (historical average of more than 28x), Semir 26 times, three home textile companies 25~30 times, relative to the industry average of 40% above the growth rate of growth, the investment value is underestimated.

5, the apparel industry listed companies are mostly private enterprises, incentives are in place, and the power to release performance is adequate. Most of the company's actual controllers and managers are the largest shareholders, and seven wolves, Mei bang, Semir and fuanna are implementing stock incentive for professional managers team.