China'S Surplus Has Entered A Long Narrow Channel.

In International Commodities

Yao Jian, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said at a press conference yesterday that trade will continue to be balanced this year. Last year, the trade surplus accounted for about 3.1% of GDP, which is in a relatively reasonable range. This proportion will shrink further this year.

Multi factor "sniper" export

Yao Jian said that economic restructuring is the focus of this year's economic policy, and promoting trade balance is an important part of economic restructuring, which will determine the future trend of China's trade structure.

In addition, Yao Jian said that the rise in international commodity prices, the rising cost of domestic human resources and the weak economic recovery in the EU will become a "stumbling block" for China's commodity exports.

"Before making children's clothing is very profitable, but now cotton prices have gone up too fast, forcing us to raise prices, but not too high, no one wants too high."

The owner of a children's clothing factory in Zhejiang told reporters that the export price of children's clothing did not rise with the price of raw materials because of the lack of pricing autonomy.

In the first quarter, China's foreign trade suffered a deficit of US $1 billion 20 million, the first quarterly deficit since the first quarter of 2004.

The first quarter trade deficit was mainly due to the rapid growth of import growth, especially the rise in the import price of resources. "This is the performance of the input type deficit and the input type inflation factor."

Yao Jian explained.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first quarter, the import volume of crude oil, iron ore and refined oil increased by 11.9%, 14.4% and 27.7% respectively, and prices increased by 24.3%, 59.5% and 18.7% respectively.

Yao said that from the current scale of China's industry, the import of resource goods may still be maintained for a considerable period of time, but will also be affected by price fluctuations in the international market. However, "the trade deficit caused by changes in trade conditions, especially the price changes, is not what we would like to see."

He said that we should study the mode of operation of resource goods in the long term in terms of institutional mechanisms.

Yao Jian predicts that with the adjustment of China's domestic industrial structure, the trade will reach a basic balance throughout the year, and the trade surplus will continue to narrow.

Long term narrowing trend is hard to change

Some experts said in an interview with reporters that from the historical trend, China will also experience the course of trade in developed countries such as Europe and the United States. China's export advantages over the past few years will be replaced by India, Vietnam and other more advantageous countries.

Besides, China is also experiencing increasingly severe trade protection.

China's international trade and investment environment in 2010 is not optimistic, Ministry of Commerce released yesterday's "national trade and investment environment report 2011", and the number of trade remedy investigations against China's exports is still high.

Data show that in 2010, China's export commodities suffered 66 foreign "two counter one insurance" survey, involving a total amount of $7 billion 140 million.

Among them, there were 43 cases of anti-dumping cases, 6 cases of countervailing cases, 16 cases of safeguard measures, and 1 cases of special safeguard cases. In 2010, China's export products met 19 US 337 investigations.

The experts told reporters that if Chinese enterprises still follow the logic of thinking that they used to rely on price, they will face more trade protection.

"The protection of trade on the basis of price is very simple."

The experts said that if China's product prices are still lower than India and other countries easily enter the European and American countries' anti-dumping blacklist.

Yao Jian said, in fact, the reason why the United States has long set up trade barriers in Sino US trade lies in its persistent view that China has a trade surplus with the United States.

The United States is actually using trade balance as an excuse to stop Chinese products from entering the US market.