The Property Market Is In A Stalemate &Nbsp; The New Round Of Property Market Regulation Policies Will Come Out.

The 8 group of property inspection teams dispatched by the State Council has ended the inspection.

Since the beginning of this year, since the introduction of the property market control combination, the volume of pactions has been depressed in various places, and the rapid rise of housing prices has been curbed.

According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, the price of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China has decreased by 20 compared with the same level in March, an increase of 6 from last month, and 29 cities in the ring than the previous month.

From the year-on-year data, there were 2 cities in the same period last year, an increase of 1 over the previous month, and 46 cities in the same period of last year's rise, an increase of 16 over the previous month, and 26 cities with an increase of less than 5%, an increase of 2 over the previous month.

Although the real estate market gradually "fever", but the price of "inflection point" is not obvious.

70 large and medium-sized cities, there are still 29 cities in March, new commercial housing prices rose by more than 0.5%, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, 4 tier cities, although the average selling price has slightly reduced, but some experts pointed out that many high-end properties in March postponed the listing, the price drop is largely affected by the structural impact of the paction, rather than the trend of change.

Take Shenzhen as an example, the average price of new houses in Shenzhen in March was 19423 yuan / square meter, down 5.99%, down 5.04% from the same period last year.

The reason why this kind of house price is "flopping" is that in March, the turnover volume of houses in Shenzhen increased significantly, and the average paction price was lowered.

In March, 2131 new houses were sold outside Shenzhen, far more than 1274 sets in February.

In March, the price of second-hand housing in Shanghai also did not appear to be adjusted. The secondary housing price index was 2586 points, the ring ratio still increased by 0.25%, and the 5 urban areas and the inner ring of Pudong increased by 0.32%.

Real estate researcher Han Shitong pointed out that the purchase restriction policy inhibited the sale of high-end properties, and the market was in a wait-and-see manner, resulting in a contraction in pactions, while the suburban real estate market took advantage of the situation. The low price volume resulted in the decline of the overall average price in March. In fact, there was no substantial reduction in the market.

Since entering the April, the real estate market has quietly recovered, and the average price has begun to rise again.

In the last week (from April 18th to 24th), the average price of commercial housing in Shanghai has reached 31720 yuan / square meter, a 58.4% rise in the ring.

A total of 34 sets of single family villas were sold in Shanghai purple garden in the high-end project. The average price was 100205 yuan / square meter, and the average price was 62284 yuan / square meter. The four seasons were 7, and the price of 49415 yuan per square meter was 10.

A number of policies will be overweight.

Housing prices continue to occupy a high level, and there will be no more stringent regulatory policies follow up. Recently, it is easy to see from the management's statements that the property market regulation will develop in a more long-term and deeper direction, and the real estate credit policy, land policy and tax policy may be overweight again.

Tightening the financing channels of the real estate industry is an important means to weaken the driving force of rising housing prices.

Recently, it was reported that the CBRC may introduce new regulations before May 1st, further regulate the real estate trust business and tighten the financing of real estate trust.

Personal first suite loan may also raise the down payment to 50%, a credit officer of a state-owned bank in Shanghai said that there was no relevant notice at present. The first suite Shoufu 50% would be more destructive, and it should not be introduced in the short term, but if the house price continues to rise, it may become a powerful medicine that can set a good example.

This year, with the tightening of bank loans and capital market refinancing, many real estate companies have raised funds through trust products, and real estate trusts have become popular.

In March, the trust products in the trust products invested in real estate trust products to collect the largest amount of funds, a total of 35, the total amount of funds to be raised to 9 billion 831 million yuan, an increase of 108.42%, accounting for 46.45% of the total size of the collection in March.

In the trust products set up in the week of from April 11th to 17th, there were 8 investment in the real estate sector, and the size of the funds collected accounted for 30.17% of the total scale of the trust products.

Last year, the CBRC issued a notice on the risk warning of trust companies' real estate trust business, tightening the real estate trust business, and then the product of real estate trust has shrunk.

This year, real estate trust has once again become a hot potato for housing companies. Regulators are likely to reconsider the real estate business of the trust industry to prevent the spread of the risk of the real estate market to the trust industry.

The establishment of a housing information system and the promotion of the pilot scheme for stock housing tax may also be an important direction for the new round of regulation and control.

The inspection team of the State Council delivered this signal during the inspection.

When inspecting the inspection team in Gansu, the inspection team pointed out that "the personal housing information in the main urban area of Lanzhou has not yet been completed effective integration", and suggested that "timely deployment of the real estate appraisal technology to strengthen the tax collection and management of stock houses" should be made.

In Hainan, the inspection team also put forward that the local real estate market management information construction is not in line with the regulation and control. It is recommended to complete the task of building personal housing information system on time, provide technical support for real estate regulation and control, apply real estate appraisal technology, and strengthen the pilot and promotion of stock housing tax management.

Land policy will also be adjusted.

It is reported that the Ministry of land and resources will issue a document on the "affordable housing supply plan" and "perfect land auction and auction system" in the near future, and strengthen the implementation and implementation of regulation policies.

Improving the system of auction and auction will change the way that the old people depend entirely on the high price, control the land price by considering various factors, and introduce some normative documents to control the land price.

In addition, it does not exclude direct intervention in housing prices.

Even Haikou, which has just been quoted by the media as a result of the decline in revenue, "intends to cancel the purchase order", also came to clarify on the 26 day.

Haikou city housing and Urban Rural Construction Bureau, Haikou Municipal Finance Bureau official said that the report is not true, Haikou will continue to implement the purchase and price limits and other real estate regulation policies, the city's first quarter revenue remained healthy.

Credit regulation or hedging

Due to stringent regulation and control policies, many developers have delayed the listing time of the real estate market. The industry generally expects that the volume of push ups will increase in May and June, while developers' capital chain is tight.

However, the China Securities Journal reporter found in the visit that due to the influx of hot money abroad and the large amount of early sales, the developer's capital situation has not yet fallen into the danger of the need for price reduction, and many developers still have illusions about the future market.

In a real estate in Songjiang District, Shanghai, China Securities Journal reporter found that the average price of 18000 yuan / square meter opened in March has been sold out. The newly launched housing market has climbed to 21000 yuan / square meter and the discount activity has been reduced.

In April 16th, the Pudong City Zhou kang plate's impression of spring city two phase launched the new housing source, the price has not loosened at all, the unit price in 18000 yuan to 20000 yuan / square meter.

Even some properties in Jiading District have begun to cancel the discount and discount before entering the market.

These residential projects targeted at ordinary buyers do not appear to be falling prices because of regulation. At present, they are merely "stagflation".

Some developers said that developers are now very different from the fund in 2008, the market situation is much better than in 2008.

As of April 26th, according to a quarterly report of 67 listed housing prices, which had already released results, the total amount of money held at the end of the first quarter was 153 billion 400 million yuan, short-term loans were only 46 billion 900 million yuan, and the current liabilities due within one year amounted to 68 billion 400 million yuan. Monetary funds far exceeded the sum of short-term loans and current liabilities which were due within one year, and the debt repayment pressure was not large in the short term.

At the end of the first quarter, the total accounts receivable of the 67 Housing enterprises amounted to 283 billion 800 million yuan.

Moreover, a large number of Housing enterprises can also obtain large amounts of capital through overseas financing, thus hedging the effect of domestic credit tightening.

In the Hongkong market alone, 15 mainland real estate companies have been financing about 70 billion yuan through various bonds this year. Shimao real estate [11.26 -1.57%], Baolong real estate [2.41 -2.43%], Jing Jing Tai Fu [5.75 -2.54%], Renheng land, Longhu real estate [12.58 -5.13%], and agile housing have been issuing various kinds of bonds or preferential bills abroad.

Under the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign capital is still entering the property market through various channels.

In the first quarter of this year, the amount of foreign capital utilized by the real estate development enterprises increased by 45.2% yuan, which was the fastest growing among all kinds of sources in the first 14 billion 400 million quarters of this year.

Take the latest financing of [11.24 -1.23%] of Fuli real estate as an example. In late April, Fuli successfully launched its overseas gold rush through its offshore subsidiaries. In a week's time, a total of $600 million has been oversubscribed, amounting to US $900 million.

For the market trend of real estate regulation, Lu Qilin, director of the German real estate research center, believes that if housing prices are at a high level for a long time, regulation will continue, and even more stringent regulatory measures may be introduced. Developers should adjust prices accordingly.