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The Bank Of Australia Keeps Its Benchmark Interest Rate Unchanged.

2011/5/4 17:10:00 56

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Australia's central bank (ReserveBankofAustralia) announced on May 3rd that it will maintain its 4.75% benchmark interest rate unchanged. This is the interest rate unchanged after the fifth successive policy meeting of the Australian central bank.

An economist interviewed by the daily economic news said that the governor of the Bank of Australia has indicated that the next round of interest rate increases has been opened.

However, many economists said in an interview with reporters that due to the particularity of the Australian economy, the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future is very small.

These will affect the development of garment export and garment enterprises.

"The next round of interest rate increases has been opened."

Zhao Zhimin, a registered financial analyst in Hongkong, said in an interview with reporters: "the current interest rate in Australia is the interest rate before the financial crisis. Although the current data show that the inflation rate in Australia has reached the fastest level since 2006, the core inflation rate is not high.

The possibility of raising interest rates within three months is very small unless the trend of domestic inflation worsens, but the dollar may follow up after the US dollar raises interest rates.

Zhao Zhimin believes that Australia is

Commodity currency

In the country, the exchange rate of commodity currencies is related to the fluctuation of commodities and is partly against inflation.

Imported inflation has little impact on its domestic market.

Australia's interest rate remains unchanged, which may make the dollar's weakness continue.

Chen Yuyu, an associate professor of Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, has been concerned about the financial market in Australia. He told reporters: "the Australian government has been in a heated debate over whether the central bank should raise interest rates.

As the Australian finance ministry was influenced more by the premier, the prime minister was more concerned about domestic employment, so the Treasury did not want to raise interest rates.

Treasury officials also raised the Australian dollar's appreciation against the dollar, making inflation less severe.

Inflation in Australia is risky but not very serious, so it is unexpected that the RBA will maintain its interest rate temporarily.

There are two factors that make interest rate hike not urgent, the inflation rate is suppressed and the employment situation is good.

Chen Yuyu pointed out that the United States

financial crisis

There is little damage to Australia. At present, the domestic employment rate is high, and there is no extra unemployment. Now the main economic policy goal is to avoid inflation.

Based on the relatively large demand for iron ore in China and other countries and weak recovery in Europe and the United States, Australia's economic development is relatively stable, inflation pressure is not serious, employment rate is good, but the economic structure has problems and is more dependent on mineral resources, which is easy to cause "Dutch disease", that is, a primary product sector of a country's economy is flourishing, resulting in the decline of other sectors, resulting in the loss of competitiveness of other industries in the world.

Chen Yuyu stressed: "according to the quarterly economic growth rate and inflation rate in western countries, Australian economists believe that interest rates may increase in August. Because of its upward trend in domestic CPI, the governor of the Australian central bank has indicated that the central bank is ready to tackle inflation at any time, and the next round of interest rate increases has been opened."

Australia's interest rate is not good enough for its regulation.

Tan Yaling, Dean of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, said that the current Australian inflation index is within the scope of adjustment. Now the focus of the global market is accumulating in interest rate speculation, which is unfavorable for Australia's economic stability and regulation.

"The Fed has zero interest rates and the Australian dollar is 4.25%, which has increased the speculative nature of the Australian dollar.

For Australia's economy,

financial market

Influential.

Yesterday (May 3rd), the Australian dollar rebounded against the US dollar (1.0836,0.0003,0.03%) and exceeded 1.10, setting the 29 year high since the floating exchange rate system was implemented in 1983.

So I feel that keeping interest rates unchanged is a choice made after a comprehensive comparison.

Tan Yaling pointed out that Australia's inflation level and pressure are different from those of developed countries in Europe and the United States, which are also different from those in developing countries.

On the question of how far the Australian dollar is going to raise interest rates, Tan Yaling said: "unless inflation goes very fast, this is the angle of internal trade-offs. At the same time, we need to adjust the structure and trend of external interest rates, otherwise we will not raise interest rates. At least, the possibility of raising interest rates in these months is very small.

Because of the high expected price increase in international commodities and raw materials, there are two sides to Australia. On the one hand, it is a resource class country, which drives the economy better, but it puts pressure on inflation.

At present, the pressure of the appreciation of the Australian dollar is great. If the interest rate rises, the Australian dollar will be more speculative.

The RBA may be more concerned about the impact of interest rate speculation on the Australian dollar.