Yongan Futures: Ease Of Supply And Demand Is Expected To &Nbsp; PTA Rebound Is Suppressed.

Market review:

Thursday, overnight overnight

Upstream market:

WTI rose 3.19 to 100.10, Brent crude rose 2.31 to 112.30 U.S. dollars / barrel; naphtha fell 18 US dollars to 952-955 US dollars / ton CFR Japan; heterogeneous MX fell 23 US dollars to 1185-1186 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Korea; Asia PX fell 16 US dollars to 1491-1492 U.S. dollars / ton FOB South Korea; Europe was stationary in 1560-1564 dollar / ton FOB Rotterdam, and the United States was stationary in the US dollar / ton FOB Gulf of America.

Downstream market:

Zhejiang polyester market has recently been stimulated by short-term effects such as the slight rise of raw materials and the improvement of the turnover atmosphere. The price is stable, and the price of some parts of the market is near 100 yuan. The actual trading center is stabilized. Most of the polyester factories are mainly shipped. The production and marketing situation is good. Most factories are 100-150, and a small number of them are about 200%, and some of them fall back to 8-9.

The price of polyester in Jiangsu market has been steadily rising. The partial factory has reduced the discount rate or the price has risen slightly. The mainstream factories in Taicang have been offering stable quotations for polyester, and some of them have been cancelled.

The polyester industry in Fujian is stable as a whole, and the polyester factories still rely mainly on the volume of shipment. There are still favorable phenomena, especially the relatively poor sales of fine denier products.

Today, the mainstream manufacturers of local production and sales have picked up slightly, most factories produce and sell at 150-200%, and short term polyester cross trend is the main trend.

Direct spinning polyester short cost pressure increased, Jiangyin Dachang quotation today slightly exploratory increase, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places overall stability, part of the factory inventory pressure, the actual paction price is more stable, mostly still to digest inventory.

Due to the cautious preparation of raw materials in the downstream factories, most of the stock of raw materials is relatively small. In the atmosphere of continuous rebound of raw materials and some of the short and short factories in Jiangyin, there are many small replenishment movements.

Direct spinning polyester and short factories today improved significantly in production and marketing, and the production and sales rate of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was around 300%, and the rest were generally over 200%.

Comprehensive comment:

Overnight crude oil rose sharply, while PX showed a sharp decline. The main reason is that the weaker market conditions led to a cautious attitude towards buyers in PX's spot market.

Today, PTA continued the rally yesterday, opened up, but then went down. Although it was trying to pull up, it continued to perform in general and was also mainly dragged down by cotton.

Since last Friday, PTA has been rebounding for 5 consecutive days, but its performance is very weak.

The main reason is that the fundamentals are now in the dark, and the new capacity is expected to exert greater pressure.

Although the increase in downstream stockings leads to better production and marketing of polyester products, the market mentality is still unstable, especially in the terminal textile enterprises. There may be a wide range of losses and failures. This is an important disadvantage in demand at present.

On the whole, the bad luck in the PTA market always exists, so at present, the market reversal is not strong enough.

Recently, cotton and PTA both encountered technical support at the low end of last November. Rebounding is also a normal technical response, and even a larger rebound is not surprising.

Today, the 10 day moving average of the PTA opening station will test the suppression of the 20 day moving average, and there may also be some technical suppression at the early stage of the gap.

From the MACD and RSI indicators, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but it is not recommended to catch up now.

In the near future, the international market economy is unstable, and the commodities fluctuate greatly. PTA does not have the conditions of reversal at present. Beware of any possible fall.