After The Fall Of The Sex Band, &Nbsp; Phase Cotton Waited For The Deadlock To Break.

From mid February to mid May. Range A trend band of up to 30%. Fall After that, the current cotton range was arranged between 24000 - 26000 yuan / ton. At the same time, the market concentration has been unprecedentedly concentrated, and the positions have been substantially increased within a day. Deal Active, in May 10th, the turnover of single contract (CF1109) reached more than 320 hands. market Positions accumulated more than 67 hands on the same day, all set a record.

　　 Necessity of phased technology low ranking

　　 Stage cotton From May 5th to now, the technical adjustment and arrangement in the low level area are necessary both in terms of technology and in the vacuum of short-term fundamentals.

From a technical point of view, near the top of 24100 points is not only the key price adjustment since mid February, but also the important node of the first round of adjustment in November last year. In the future, whether it is building the neck of the head or building the bottom of the double bottom, there is need for sorting out. From the perspective of market transaction psychology, after 30% adjustment, the market needs to digest the kinetic energy of decline.

From a fundamental point of view, since the beginning of March this year, the finished product inventory in the downstream cotton textile industry has been accumulating, and the situation of limiting production and shutting down has been aggravated, which has led to the continuous decline of cotton spot prices. Cotton prices fell from 30000 yuan / ton to the current 24000 yuan / ton, and the downward gauze prices continued to price promotions. The 32S yarn dropped from the top 40000 near the current 35000 yuan / ton, temporarily stabilizing the situation, which can be seen from the purchasing price of a representative textile enterprise in Shandong. Since the quotation of the lint purchase of the large textile enterprise in May 6th has been lowered to 23500 yuan / ton (standard grade lint), the price adjustment behavior of the index enterprise has been temporarily ended.

　　 Changes in purchasing price of lint cotton in a large textile enterprise in Shandong, 2010/2011

The "breaking" factor seems to be brewing.

In the current short interval oscillation market, "time for space", how to change the downstream consumption situation, new cotton growth and change, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the end of the year, may become a bargaining chip for the two sides to compete.

First, how will the downstream consumption situation change? Although the price of cotton spot, yarn and cloth has been temporarily down since May, and at the same time, enterprises generally sell at a low price, but they have not yet changed their sales volume. Because at the end of the year, it may face further loans from the Agricultural Development Bank, and the date of the new flower coming to the market is approaching, and the downstream peak season is gradually over. Once the cotton price goes down again in the late period, it will be a panic selling behavior, and it may also be a key factor that causes the cotton price to fall further.

Secondly, the growth of new cotton planting. According to the latest data from the US Department of agriculture (USDA), as of May 16th, the US cotton planting rate reached 42%, compared with 26% in the previous week. The progress was faster than before, compared with 46% in the same period last year and five in 44%. Domestically, as early as May, cotton in Xinjiang, the Yellow River and Yangtze valley was in the third true leaf stage. Except for the cotton fields in Hubei and Anhui, the largest range of rainfall has occurred in most parts of the country since the beginning of spring, which has effectively alleviated the early drought in the northern arid areas and improved the soil moisture in most of the farmland. At present, the growth of new flowers may be the best year in the past three years. Meanwhile, the growth of Xinjiang's sown area is expected to exceed 10%, much higher than the previous expectations of the market.

In addition, according to the latest USDA monthly report, China's import volume will be reduced by 320 thousand tons to 2 million 930 thousand tons in May 11th as expected to reduce US exports and increase US and global end stocks. However, China's output data have been increased, consumption data have not been adjusted, and there is a big deviation from the expectation. It is expected that more consideration is given to the annual balance factor of China's cotton. In the first forecast of the new year (2011/12), global production increased to a record of 27 million 150 thousand tons, raising the end of the global inventory, and the supply shortage is expected to ease.

Finally, the contradiction between supply and demand of resources at the end of the year is analyzed. In recent years, the domestic cotton textile enterprises have limited production and increased production, and in April the National Bureau of statistics has just released the cotton production year-on-year and the ring ratio has dropped, and the yarn production ratio has also decreased in April. The author thinks that the significance of talking about the cotton gap in the new and old year has not been great. Even if the contradiction between the high level resources expected by all parties is lacking, it needs to be reexamined at present, and we should not rely too much on the static view.

　　 conclusion

Therefore, in the context of the lack of clear guidelines in the cotton market at present, in May 16th, the international market once again announced that a major cotton trader might cancel its ICE cotton registered warehouse receipt, which led to the controversy over the shortage of registered stocks that could be delivered in July, which made the cotton market "a ripple". The author believes that such speculation is difficult to weather. At the same time, the inventory of China's downstream textile enterprises is hard to digest, and there is a large number of enterprises to stop production. It is equally difficult and difficult to follow the price of cotton in China. The author boldly predicts that even if the market goes up, there will be more speculation in the market, and how high the final rise will be. Investors need to be reminded that in the current futures market generally concerned about the cotton market funds, should not be too frequent access to operations, pay more attention to the changes in these factors, the day of breaking the market is the opportunity to enter the market.