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Internationalization Of The Renminbi Needs To Be Considered More Slowly.

2011/5/27 11:35:00 87

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During the recent period, both the operational level and the public opinion level have accelerated the internationalization of RMB.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, said recently that the cross border use of RMB, first of all, refers to the use of trade and investment, and will also be prudently allowed to use in financial pactions.

In this statement, we should use it prudently.

RMB

The concept used in overseas financial pactions has expanded the concept of "cross border trade settlement of RMB" originally proposed by the market. It is understood by the market that the promotion of RMB's overseas use will extend from the original settlement currency to the trading currency and even higher level functions.

There is no doubt that the internationalization of RMB is accelerating. However, from the current domestic environment, the speed of RMB internationalization should match with domestic development, so as to avoid a retrogression.

The central bank data show that from July 2009 to the end of December 2010, the banks accumulated 509 billion 300 million yuan for cross-border trade in goods, services and other RMB settlement business.

It accounts for about 2% of the total volume of import and export trade; from 1 to April, this amount has reached 530 billion, which exceeds the total volume of trade settlement last year, accounting for about 5% of the volume of trade in the same period.

Other demand for Renminbi also began to appear.

At present, the BRICs (China, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and India) have indicated that they will steadily expand the scale of the settlement and loan business of the local currency, and facilitate the trade and investment of various countries to avoid the exchange rate risk caused by the rashly use of the US dollar. As the main economic body of Asia, the finance ministers of China, Japan and South Korea have recently agreed to carry out a feasibility study on the import and export trade with their own currencies. Meanwhile, Premier Wen Jiabao said that the Sino Japanese ROK FTA negotiations will be launched next year, which will provide more room for the use of RMB.

China's economic outward oriented development has reached the stage of rapid development of foreign direct investment. In 2010, the scale of China's foreign direct investment was nearly US $50 billion. During this process, foreign investment convenience and control were generated.

exchange rate

Risk needs.

Many people also call for Renminbi capital account convertibility.

As we can see, with the expansion of RMB settlement, the cross-border investment and financing of RMB has also been developed, of which, the current business volume of RMB overseas direct investment (ODI) has been about 19 billion yuan; secondly, FDI is drafting related pilot laws, and a small number of cases have been done; Wenzhou and Shanghai have also been proposed to apply for RMB overseas direct investment.

Third, expand cross-border financing of RMB and provide RMB financing for overseas projects by domestic banks; meanwhile, RMB reflux mechanism is gradually being built.

In fact, the Chinese bond market has made corresponding arrangements in response to the demand for foreign currency reflux.

Last year, the central bank gradually launched RMB clearing bank and other three institutions to use the RMB investment interbank bond market. In March this year, 8 overseas financial institutions, including Hongkong, Hongkong, Nanyang Commercial Bank and so on, were allowed to enter the interbank bond market.

At present, including the Bank of China (3.30,0.00,0.00%) Hongkong branch, the Macao branch of the Bank of China, two Hong Kong and Macao RMB clearing banks, nearly 20 foreign institutions have been allowed to enter the interbank bond market, which means that RMB reflux channels are further widened.

Overseas interest in the RMB market is also high. It is reported that Singapore is expected to use a Chinese bank to liquidate RMB pactions, which may prompt Singapore to become the second offshore RMB center after Hongkong.

No doubt, due to the current western developed countries

Economic recovery

Faced with all kinds of challenges, there is no room for the development of the renminbi. However, from the international environment, the path of RMB internationalization is just the beginning and does not have the basis for rapid expansion.

According to the central government's assumption, the internationalization of RMB is not simply convertibility, but has high standards and levels.

The first is substitution; the two is full function, and all functions of the international currency should be possessed; three, a large proportion should be sufficient in the international monetary system and trade and investment settlement.

But it is impossible to achieve real internationalization with the help of the government. It is still necessary to rely on its own economic strength and the support of financial development in China. Mature domestic financial market system, sound financial legal system, ubiquitous risk awareness and high level financial supervision mechanism are the most important driving force to support RMB internationalization.

Therefore, under the current situation of dollar hegemony and euro challenge, the most realistic question is how to steadily push forward RMB internationalization with increasing economic strength and trade strength.

In the current situation of domestic interest rate liberalization and the RMB exchange rate mechanism has not been completed, other steps of RMB internationalization can hardly be said to be truly mature.

It can be seen that the first is to further rationalize the market price mechanism, gradually realize the marketization of interest rates and the formation of RMB exchange rate mechanism, so as to promote the opening of domestic financial markets, improve the ability of financial innovation, and ultimately realize the internationalization of RMB.