Severe Drought Disrupts Market Expectations And Experts Predict That CPI Will Be Higher In May.

It is reported that along with the drought in some parts of the five provinces of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the drought is increasing. market The A share drought resistance concept is also very eye-catching, but experts predict that inflation expectations will intensify in May. CPI Maybe a new high.

Once the land of fish and rice, there seems to be some "fish dead rice shortage". The Ministry of Civil Affairs disaster relief Department data show that as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is experiencing severe drought, as of May 27th, a total of 34 million 833 thousand people were hit by drought and the direct economic loss was 14 billion 940 million yuan. Persistent drought has made the market more worried about grain production. Societe Generale Bank (601166) chief economist Lu commissar believes that if the current drought can not be alleviated in time, affecting the autumn grain sowing, will bring great pressure to the stability of grain prices.

Lu commissar: under such a serious disaster this year, if we reach a level of close to 5%, that is the reduction in production. I think that will be a problem, and it will also be difficult for stabilizing grain prices.

Affected by drought, vegetable prices in some areas have increased considerably. Rise In May 24th, the National Bureau of statistics released 50 large and medium-sized cities in the middle of May. Food prices showed that only 10 days, cabbage, rape and celery increased by 11% over the first half of May. The price of aquatic products is also high in arid areas. Since the weight of the food category currently accounts for about 30% of CPI, Lu commissar analyzed that the price of food returned to the trend in May, and there was no sign of loosening of the non food prices, and the rising of the caudate factor was expected to be a new high in May.

Lu political commissar: because we see that not only China is cutting production, but Europe is also cutting production, so the price decline situation in the second half of the year is not very optimistic. We expect that CPI will meet the top 6 in October and the CPI in May will be 5.5 higher according to our judgement.

As the price increase is expected to intensify, the agricultural futures market rebounded sharply. On the 30 day, most of the domestic agricultural products futures rose, and the 1201 contract of strong wheat was 2966 yuan, up 1.75%. But Wang Jinshan, an analyst at Baocheng futures, thinks that the rise in agricultural futures prices is merely a rebound and will not be a trend.

Wang Jinshan: from the medium term, there will not be a big rise, because there are two points, one is the macro environment of the national macro control environment, the second is the futures market or the financial market is more rational transaction. I think the short term rebound of the futures market will still not rise significantly.

Compared to the rebound in the futures market, the A share market is a new force in the A-share market. On the 30 day of closing, the stocks of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery were active under the situation of diving at the end of the stock index. Da Yu's water saving and reclaimed water fisheries have been closed down. The concept of water conservancy is also not to be outdone. The Three Gorges water conservancy has been closed down, and Qianjiang water conservancy has increased by more than 6%. Xiao Bo, a strategist at Shenyin and Wanguo, warned investors not to catch up blindly. The stock market is still in a weak environment.

Xiao Bo: in the short term, it is also speculation. We also remind investors that if you have the ability to participate in the short term, see Li may be a better choice.