CPI Rush To High And Difficult To Suppress &Nbsp; Dragon Boat Festival Holiday Enters Interest Rate Sensitive Period.

In the background of CPI's high inflation, the central bank has reissued for 3 years, and the people's Bank of China released the China financial stability report (2011) yesterday. It focuses on the overall anti risk capability of the financial system, and stresses again that this year's main task is to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

The central bank's policy thinking has no signs of turning around, and domestic and foreign brokerages have said that the rate of interest increase in June is not small.

CPI or even new high interest rate increase in June is not small.

"This year, the central bank announced the first two increases in interest rates on the last day of the Spring Festival holiday and Qingming Festival, and this time the Dragon Boat Festival is probably a node."

The worries of a market maker spoke of many voices.

And the conclusion is not groundless. Under the background of CPI, the major securities firms at home and abroad are expecting the possibility of raising interest rates.

The bank financial research center report predicts that the growth rate of CPI in May will be around 5.5% next year, which will exceed the high point in March, hitting a new high in the year. What is even more frightening is that 6, 7 or two months may be a new high.

Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of China, believes that tightening inflation policy is not likely to change in the short term because inflation pressures are difficult to alleviate in the short term.

E Yongjian, a researcher at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said more directly that the interest rate hike in June was expected in the market. The latest research report from Huatai Securities also supports this assertion.

UBS's latest China economic review is even higher, with CPI expected to rise by 5.6% in May.

They believe that the continuous drought in the central and southern parts of the mainland will bring food price inflation to a higher level in history than the upward pressure on food prices.

The report also predicted the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates in June. "In the next few months, the government is unlikely to relax the tone of the policy tightening. It is expected that the central bank will raise interest rates in June and may add another one in July."

It is predicted that the central bank will continue to move more than the UBS. Morgan Chase's report also points out that the government will at least raise the deposit reserve rate again and raise interest rates two times.

3 year central bank reissued the central bank reaffirmed the implementation of prudent monetary policy

At present, the focus of various structural disputes is concentrated on the size of the central bank's regulation efforts.

Although all sides believe that the current credit control is relatively strict, and with the implementation of a number of means, such as the constant increase in the reserve ratio, future credit growth will continue to be stable and controllable.

But the resumption of the 3 - year central bank votes has made people feel that the central bank's liquidity has not loosened its grip.

This week, the 3 - year central bank came out again, issuing a scale of 23 billion yuan, while the central bank announced the issuance of the March central bank circulation of 15 billion yuan.

Although the amount of liquidity recovery has been greatly reduced, the industry believes that this indicates that the central bank believes that the current monetary environment still has room for regulation.

China's financial stability report (2011) issued yesterday by the central bank clearly pointed out that this year we should continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and pay attention to the financial support for the economy from the perspective of total social financing.

We should pay attention to the financial support for the economy from the perspective of total social financing, and emphasize that we should explore the establishment of a macro Prudential management system framework, prevent systemic risks, and effectively safeguard financial stability.