The NDRC Hinted That The Inflation Inflection Point Of CPI Was Approaching In June.

May of this year CPI After a 34 month high of last year's rise, interest rate hikes did not come as scheduled. Since the two quarter, whether it is Economics The situation or capital market is beset by the high inflation index.

Yesterday (June 22nd), the NDRC issued a document saying that due to the current pork price is still "Crazy", with the superposition of the tail factor, it is expected that the CPI increase in June will be higher than that in May.

However, the committee also stressed that in the second half of the year, due to the rapid fall of the tail, the new price factors will continue to be curbed, and the consumer price will rise higher than the same period.

"The NDRC article suggests that CPI will be the peak in June, starting from the second half of July. price The index will turn the corner. " An analyst who declined to be named said the analysis.

　 The effect of warping is seen in June.

Data show that in the first half of May this year, China's CPI rose by 4.9%, 4.9%, 5.4%, 5.3% and 5.5% respectively. The total price level of 1~5 increased by 5.2% on average. In response, the NDRC said yesterday, "because the general price level rose more in the second half of last year, it has a great impact on the end of this year, which is the main reason for the higher overall price level this year."

According to the introduction, the last 5 months of the last year were 3.7, 2.6, 3.2, 3.1 and 3.2 percentage points respectively, accounting for 75.3%, 52.6%, 59.4%, 58% and 58% of CPI in the same month.

On the other hand, the continued rise in hog prices has also become a booster factor for CPI's high prices this year. In May, for example, food prices rose 11.7% in the month, contributing 64% to CPI's year-on-year increase, of which pork prices rose from 35.2% last month to 40.4%, pushing CPI the most, and this trend may continue in June.

Although vegetable prices have dropped for four weeks, down 14.3% from mid May, strong pork prices are supporting the Ministry of Commerce's index of edible agricultural products last week. According to the Ministry of Commerce statistics, meat prices rose overall last week, with pork, beef, white chicken and mutton rising by 4.8%, 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

Judging from the price structure of pork, the price increase of live pigs and pork is also different. The latest monitoring data of the Ministry of agriculture showed that pork prices rose 63.6% in the second week of June compared with the same period last week. The average price of live pigs in 34 large and medium-sized cities reached 17.62 yuan per kilogram, up 79.2% over the same period last year.

The head of the price bureau of the NDRC predicted that the price of pork will rise to a certain extent as the price of pork is substantially lower than that of hog prices.

He also said that the overall price level in June will be higher than that in May. This is also due to an increase of 0.5 percentage points from May to 3.7 percentage points.

　　 Will prices turn around in the second half?

Economists from Nomura Securities said that retail pork prices appeared to rise faster in June, coupled with a rising trend in non food price inflation, which is expected to exceed CPI by 6% over the same month.

"The trend of food prices still affects the operation of CPI to a large extent. Pork, fresh eggs and aquatic products have replaced the early vegetables to become the CPI's last" top "promoter. Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of galaxy securities, said that in June, CPI will reach its peak value, or 6%.

At the same time, after nearly a year of ups and downs, when inflationary inflection point is coming, more and more attention has been paid to it.

"The development and Reform Commission's article implies that the CPI will reach its peak in June, and that the price index will be turning point from the second half of July to the beginning of the year." Yesterday, an analyst who declined to be named said this.

It is reported that this year, in addition to the tail factor and the rise in pork prices, although the new price increases are also increasing, but the first 5 months reflect the rise in the price of the new ring price increase has been from 1, February, 1%, 1.2% down to March, April, May -0.2%, 0.1% and 0.1%, the trend is convergence. The relevant people in charge of the NDRC believe that this shows that all policies and measures for stabilizing prices in the country are gradually playing a role, and the momentum of the rapid rise in prices has been curbed to a certain extent.

According to combing, the development and Reform Commission's previous statements on the price situation have been accurately verified, for example, when it answered "reporters' questions" in January 20th, it indicated that prices will remain high in the first quarter, after which proved that China's CPI grew to 5% in the first quarter.

In April and May, although the Commission did not clearly explain the trend of prices, its official website continued to publish articles about the reasons and effects of "interviews", which undoubtedly implied that the anti inflation situation is still very grim.

On the contrary, the title of "answering reporters' questions of the NDRC clearly pointed out:" lifting the tail "pushes up the current prices, and the latter trend is generally controllable. This means that officials are suggesting that inflationary inflection points are not far off.

"There may be an inflection point in July or August." Zheng Xinli, executive vice chairman of the national economic and Trade Commission, believes that the price trend is still rising slowly and is expected to peak in June.

He also predicted that CPI would increase by about 4.8% this year.