Monthly Trade Surplus Widened Luxury Tax Cuts Still Room

After a small trade deficit in the first quarter, the trade surplus in June rapidly expanded to $22 billion 270 million.

On the 11 day of July, the number of respondents said that the continued tightening of the macro adjustment policy, while curbing inflation, also suppressed the real demand for imports in the country, so that the slowdown in import growth in June was faster than the slowdown in export growth. Balance of trade surplus 。

The source of the foreign trade system suggests that if the high surplus is sustained, it may prompt the decision makers to make up their minds to introduce some of the series of import promotion measures that are still in dispute as soon as possible: including the import tax reduction of some consumer goods, such as cosmetics, which are still listed as luxury goods.

The source also revealed that clothing Of Export tax rebate The rate of sharp reduction of 5 percentage points has been rejected by policymakers. Policymakers fear that the adjustment may lead to more bankruptcies, resulting in a more difficult problem of unemployment on the industrial chain.

Surplus scale or over 100 billion US dollars

Data released by the General Administration of Customs in July 10th showed that in June, China exported 161 billion 980 million US dollars, an increase of 17.9%, and the monthly export scale refreshed the historical record of 157 billion 160 million US dollars just set up last month, and imports 139 billion 710 million US dollars, an increase of 19.3%.

The high surplus is not difficult to explain. Compared with the May trade figures, we can see that the growth rate of imports and exports slowed down in June, but the rate of slowdown in imports is particularly obvious. In June, China's export growth rate shrank by 1.5 percentage points compared with May, while import growth contracted by 9.1 percentage points.

Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at China International Economic Exchange Center, analyzed that the slowdown in import growth was related to two factors. First, China's demand expansion was slowing down under the background of domestic tightening policy; two, the slowdown in global commodity prices led to a slowdown in import growth. Considering the base and price problems, China's import growth in the second half of this year will be significantly slowed down.

Zhou Shijian, senior researcher at the Sino US relations research center of Tsinghua University, warned that the current trend of surplus development is not optimistic. In the first half of the year, a surplus of nearly US $45 billion has been achieved. It is not easy to control the surplus for 100 billion dollars a year. July -10 month is the traditional peak season for China's exports. According to the rule of previous years, the surplus in the second half of this year will be larger than that in the first half.

　 There is a big controversy over reducing taxes on luxury goods.

The June surplus of US $20 billion is also expected to prompt policymakers to continue to take measures to reduce the surplus to ease the pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi. In fact, this year, the idea of "promoting exports" instead of "pressure exports" to reduce the surplus has been made clear, but the path of "promoting exports" has not been fully clear.

According to the sources who participated in the policy argumentation, according to the importance ranking, the package of "promotion port" policy will mainly cover three levels: first, to promote the import of equipment and technology equipment, including reducing the tariff of this category of commodities, and giving priority loans or loan interest discount to the importation of advanced technology and equipment in key industries, and then reducing the import tariff rate of resource products. Finally, it is to promote the import tax reduction of consumer goods which are mainly made up of cosmetics and are still classified as luxury goods.

The aforementioned people said that the first two measures were not controversial, and second of them had been fulfilled. The Ministry of finance has announced that the import tariff of energy and raw materials and commodities from 33 items of gasoline and diesel oil will be cut down in July 1st.

It is controversial whether such cosmetics should be no longer included in luxury goods and thus promote their tax reduction. The above said there is a great controversy between ministries and departments. The Ministry of commerce is the main supporter of this measure. Roughly estimated, China has about $50 billion of related consumption released abroad every year, and the US $50 billion has not been included in China's import data.

As a matter of fact, the intensity and speed of the policy of "promoting the export" were much lower than the previous market expectations. The time for the national enlarged Import working conference, which is regarded as a landmark event of the "promotion of export" policy, has been postponed.

People in Guangdong's foreign trade system say that this meeting is not a formality. According to the notification received by the provinces before, the "promotion port" will become an important starting point for foreign trade work in the future. We should pay equal attention to both exports and exports.

The core researchers who are close to the Ministry of Commerce have also reminded that another dispute over the "promotion measures" is that the current trade surplus is mainly caused by processing trade, while the general trade actually has a large deficit. The current "promotion port" actually promotes the general trade import.

Those who believe that reducing the proportion of processing trade is the better way to promote trade balance.