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Inflation Has Become The Primary Issue Of People'S Livelihood &Nbsp; "Price Reduction" Is More Important Than "High Growth".

2011/7/14 9:10:00 37

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Inflation People'S Livelihood "Lowering Prices" And "High Growth"

Between the rapid economic growth and the price and the benefit of the people, fish and bear's paw can not be shared at all times. At present, they are faced with the trade-off between the two.

If I really want to choose, I'm afraid most people prefer to choose a lower price environment.

China's CPI released in June 2011 reached 6.4%, the highest in 35 months, exceeding the July 2008 high of 6.3%.

Some people believe that the main reason for the rise in prices is the price rise last year and the rapid rise in pork prices in recent months. So some officials and economists claim that China's prices will peak in June and July, and the future is optimistic.

Some people even suggested that the currency should not be tightened up in the second half of this year, so as not to affect economic growth.

But the persuasiveness of this view and argument is not strong enough. At least the values it inherited is not conducive to the current situation of people's livelihood in China.

Even from the surface data, an important economic analysis method is, once a

Data breakthrough

The early high points often open up space.

Therefore, the CPI data in June 2011 exceeded the highest point in July 2008, which may open up room for further development in the future.

Moreover, the high price in June is not only the last factor of the last year, but there are many new price rising factors.

At present, the price of cigarettes and liquor and clothing has been rising rapidly except for the price of pork.

Taxi pricing in some places, high speed rail replacing ordinary trains and so on have also become new factors to drive up traffic prices.

Moreover, communications and rental prices in some places are also rising.

Therefore, the current price rise is a situation of group rush. There is no obvious way to suppress this situation in the future.

The above is the price increase caused by commodity factors, and the factors of money supply continue to "give force" to the price rise.

In the first half of this year, new loans accumulated 4 trillion and 200 billion yuan, accounting for 56% of the target of 7 trillion and 500 billion in the whole year.

The export surplus and foreign exchange reserves, one of the important sources of excessive currency growth, continue to exert momentum.

In June, the export surplus reached US $22 billion 270 million, the highest in 7 months.

By the end of 6 2011, the balance of foreign exchange reserves was 31975 billion US dollars, up 30.3% over the same period.

Another source of currency overshooting is the oversize of investment, which can be seen from the data structure of GDP.

In the first half of this year, gross domestic product was calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 9.6% over the same period last year.

Therefore, whether from commodity supply or money supply, the factors leading to price rise are all

Continue to exert strength

How can we easily say that price meetings will fall back?

At present, when the gap between the rich and the poor is large and the gap continues to widen, the long-term high inflation is very serious for people's livelihood.

Therefore, inflation has become the primary issue of China's people's livelihood and economy.

From a broader perspective, even if the CPI data really come down in the coming months, China's efforts to control inflation will persist for quite a long time.

Because the current CPI components may not all reflect the overall picture of China's inflation, CPI data can be controlled by various means, but inflation is not necessarily controllable.

In particular, China's inflation problem has accumulated over the past 10 years, which has led to a high level of absolute price and relative level of China's prices and needs to be paid back in the next few years.

Many people made a field comparison of prices between China and the United States, except for labor and intellectual property rights.

price

The absolute level has been flat with the United States, and prices in China are much higher than those in the United States in many areas.

If we take into account the income of ordinary people, China is less than 1/5 of that of the United States, and China's price problem will be even more serious.

Therefore, in the future, even if the CPI data come down, or even a full fall in China's prices, we can not relax efforts to control prices.

Recognizing that price is a long-term and primary issue in the future, we need to properly handle the primary and secondary issues of price and growth.

Because of the rapid growth of the current GDP data, the main reason is that the quality of investment and export is not high. This mode is not conducive to the tilt of the distribution mode to the general population, and has become the source of inflation. Therefore, China needs to no longer pursue the rapid growth of GDP, only need a moderate GDP growth rate and take the opportunity to carry out economic pformation.

Therefore, the problem of price inflation will become a major problem of the economy and people's livelihood. For a long time, China has been "lowering prices" and "higher growth".