Fan Jianping: Macroeconomic Slowdown

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics on 13 may show that China's GDP grew by 9.5% in the two quarter of 2011, a slight slowdown of 0.2 percentage points over the first quarter.

13 afternoon, in the second half of the year, jointly organized by the economic reference daily and Goldman Sachs.

The experts also said that compared with economic growth, this year's "price basically controllable" uncertainty is greater, it is likely to be around 5%.

In the second half of this year, fiscal and taxation policies need to increase support, actively promote structural adjustment, and use monetary policy tools flexibly.

data

GDP growth slowed slightly, the economy showed signs of slowdown.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on the morning of 13, after initial calculation, China's GDP grew by 9.5% in the two quarter of 2011, a slight slowdown of 0.2 percentage points over the first quarter.

The monthly industrial data released at the same time show that in June, the added value of above scale industries increased by 15.1% over the same period last year.

National Bureau of Statistics spokesman, National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Division Sheng Lai Yun said, from the GDP data, from the three quarter of last year to the two quarter of this year, four consecutive quarters of growth between 9.5% to 10%, the real economy has shown a steady growth trend.

Although some of the economic indicators have fallen back, the overall situation of the current Chinese economy is in good condition, and the rapid growth of the earlier policy stimulates to the orderly growth of independent growth.

The return of some major economic indicators in the two quarter is the result of the active regulation and control, and is also a normal reflection of the market after the exit of some of the stimulus.

"The macro-economy has begun to show signs of slowing down, and the next economic growth will further slow down, but it will not go down sharply", said Jianping, chief economic officer of the National Information Center. From the perspective of macroeconomic demand, the growth rate of investment and consumption is relatively stable, and from the perspective of macro economic supply, industry and imports show signs of cooling down.

He said that the level of industrial growth was mainly affected by the growth of electricity, while export growth continued to decline.

Speaking of the reasons for the economic slowdown, Fan Jianping said that the slowdown in export growth, the slowdown in domestic real estate and automobile sales and the tight funding are the main reasons.

Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has continuously raised the required reserve ratio and the interest rate of the statutory banks, increased the net return of the open market funds, controlled the scale of the credit scale, and recovered the currency that the foreign exchange funds have invested so as to control the growth rate of the total amount of money mobility in the society.

At the end of 5 and the end of 6, the balance of M2 increased by 15.1% and 15.9% compared with the same period last year. The M1 growth rate was less than M2 for many months.

"The effect of monetary policy has begun to show, and the economic operation is developing towards the direction of macro regulation and control."

But Fan Jianping also warned that monetary policy often has 3 to 4 quarters of the lag period, in the three quarter of this year, the tightening effect will start to appear further, and in the four quarter, the effect will reach the maximum.

Compared with economic growth, the uncertainty of prices is basically controllable this year.

According to Fan Jianping analysis, there is no fundamental change in the global inflationary climate.

policy

Strengthening fiscal and tax policies and flexible use of monetary policy

Fan Jianping believes that at present, "regulation is halfway up", and any view that policy is in place or even backwards is wrong.

The next step is to grasp the intensity and rhythm of regulation and control, pay attention to structural adjustment, and at the same time, fiscal policy should play more roles.

In terms of monetary policy, Fan Jianping pointed out that monetary policy too much emphasis on total control will lead to structural contradictions. First, interest rates will rise and interest rates will be negative. Two, large, medium and small enterprises will be affected differently, and SMEs will be subject to major shocks.

Fan Jianping believes that the next step is to grasp the intensity and pace of monetary policy regulation. Efforts should be made to optimize the structure and guide commercial banks to increase credit support for key areas and weak links, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and rationally adjust the proportion of medium and long term loans and short-term loans, so as to prevent short loans from being used up and occupy current funds, resulting in tight working capital for enterprises.

At the same time, we should implement a proactive fiscal policy, increase revenue and reduce expenditure, and optimize expenditure structure.

We should strengthen local government debt supervision, continue to standardize local government financing platform companies, strictly control increments, gradually digest the stock, and effectively resolve the debt risk.

Cao Honghui, director of the Research Institute of the Financial Research Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that the current need to increase fiscal and tax policy support.

The pformation of the development structure of enterprises needs to rely on financial subsidies, while the tax system should be adjusted accordingly.

In fact, once the monetary policy is tight and credit is controlled, the financing difficulties of SMEs will be highlighted.

On the one hand, small businesses have small loans and large risks. Financing costs determine that banks are unwilling to make loans for small businesses. On the other hand, small businesses are faced with tax pressure. Therefore, tax cuts or even tax exemption for small businesses will help them achieve development in the future.

Cao Honghui said.

The six increase in deposit rate this year has resulted in a 21.50% deposit rate for large financial institutions, with a preliminary estimated freeze of about 2 trillion and 300 billion. In the first half of the year, the central bank's open market retreated 11 billion yuan in cash.

Song Yu, Goldman Sachs economist of China Goldman Sachs, believes that the reserve ratio in the second half of this year still has room for improvement.

"The increase in the reserve ratio in the second half of this year will not be as large as that of last year, but the key lies in the inflow of foreign exchange, and the inflow of foreign exchange depends on the expectations of the international capital market."

In the past six months, the central bank has tended to hedge the structure of foreign currency inflows by raising the reserve ratio rather than issuing central banks.

Song Yu analysis said that this is the central bank's consideration on reducing the cost of returning the money.

"Reserve ratio is a more active tool, and the central bank relies on the adjustment of yield to return the currency, and the initiative lies in the banks. Therefore, once the foreign exchange flows into large quantities, the central bank will still choose to raise the reserve ratio to hedge foreign exchange."

In addition, Song Yu judged that the possibility of not raising interest rates in the second half of this year is relatively large, but it can not be ruled out that there is another possibility of raising interest rates in the three quarter.

He said: "once pork prices have rebounded again, and the CPI is still higher than the same period, it is possible to raise interest rates.

But at present, we predict that CPI should show a relatively sharp downward trend from August, and in this case, the possibility of raising interest rates will be relatively small.

The report of the Bank of Communications (5.56, -0.01, -0.18%) Financial Research Center believes that the price increase will gradually ease after the CPI peaked in June.

Coupled with the slowdown in economic growth, the acceleration of short-term capital inflows and the financing difficulties of SMEs, it is expected that monetary policy will be fine-tuning in the future.

Interest rate policy, interest rate hike in July, the current round of interest rate hike is coming to an end.

The deposit reserve ratio will still have room to increase 1 to 2 times in the future.

Forecast

The annual economic growth rate exceeds 9% CPI5%.

Experts who participated in the "macroeconomic situation and policy analysis in the second half of the year" said that the growth rate of the economy in the future will be further slowed down, but it will not go down sharply. The total experience will remain between 9% and 9.5%.

Compared with economic growth, the pressure of price regulation is greater, and it is likely to be around 5%.

Fan Jianping said that China's economy will not decline significantly. China's GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable above 9% for the whole year.

He pointed out that according to the latest forecast of IMF, the world economy in 2011 will grow by 4.3%, although it is lower than the level of 5.1% last year. Taking into account the cardinal factors, this level can still be considered that the global economy continues to maintain a moderate recovery trend, which can provide better external conditions for the steady and rapid development of our economy.

Since 1995, China's economic fluctuations have seen that the two major economic downturn is caused by external shocks resulting in sharp contraction of external demand.

As long as the world economy does not suffer two recession, the risk of China's economic slowdown to the so-called hard landing is very small.

In addition, with the gradual withdrawal of stimulus policies, the suppression of inflation and the tightening of housing prices and other tightening policies, China's economic growth has returned to the potential growth interval, and the stability of economic operation has increased significantly.

Fan Jianping further indicated that, influenced by many factors such as policy, economy and international market, overall, the possibility of continuous increase in consumer prices in the second half of the year is unlikely. It is possible to hold a certain period of time between 4.5% and 5.5%, and the price increase is controllable throughout the year.

It is estimated that consumer prices will rise by about 5% in 2011, and producer prices will rise by 7% to 6.8%.

Song Yu said that GDP is expected to grow by about 9.4% throughout the year.

CPI may decline from July, and decrease significantly in August. CPI is expected to be around 4.8% in the whole year.

Cao Honghui said that the annual GDP is expected to be between 9.3% and 9.5%, CPI should exceed 5%, and it may also exceed 6%.

Bank of communications Financial Research Center report also pointed out that although the slowdown in economic growth trend will continue, but the economic growth rate is mainly the result of policy active regulation.

Data on investment and imports remain strong, indicating that domestic economic growth is still endogenous.

Therefore, it is estimated that economic growth may only slow down a little in the year.

It is expected that the economy will grow more than 9% in the second half of this year.

It is expected that the price increase will drop in the second half of the year, but it will remain relatively high. It is difficult to achieve the goal of 4% in the whole year.