Macroeconomic Data In The First Half Of The Year: GDP Increased By 9.6%&Nbsp; CPI Rose 5.4%

Statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics on 13 may show that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the first half of the year was 204459 billion yuan, up 9.6% from the same price.

Among them, the first quarter grew by 9.7%, and the two quarter increased by 9.5%.

In the first half of this year, China's consumer price level (CPI) rose by 5.4% over the past year.

The total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 85833 billion yuan, an increase of 16.8% over the same period last year. Fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 124567 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6% over the same period last year.

The overall upward trend will be reversed.

According to the latest economic data, Su Bowen, an economist at Nomura Securities, pointed out that Chinese consumers

"Although there is a high correlation between CPI and PPI, there is a higher correlation between CPI and PPI subsistence categories."

Su Bowen said that unlike the overall PPI inflation, the PPI producer price rose steadily in June, up 4.6%.

Judging from past history, this sends a strong signal of CPI inflation reversing.

Coupled with more favorable cardinal effects and slower economic growth, the probability that CPI has peaked in June is 80%.

"We are worried that the rate of inflation will fall very slowly."

Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist of galaxy securities, also believes that the orientation of monetary policy will not change in the second half of the year. It will still focus on inflation. It may not adjust the deposit reserve rate frequently. But it will also appropriately withdraw funds through open market and other measures, and maintain overall control of liquidity and make appropriate adjustments to the interest rate level.

Reporters noted that before the data release, CICC released a report that inflation will peak in the second half, but

New credit

Hitting the bottom of scale control

Recently, the central bank released the first half of this year's financial statistics report shows that M2 increased by 15.9% compared with the previous year, new credit in June 633 billion 900 million yuan, the first half of the new credit 4 trillion and 170 billion yuan.

New loans are lower than expected, mainly related to macroeconomic regulation and control.

Under the control of loan quota, window guidance, increase of deposit reserve ratio, strict loan to deposit ratio and core capital adequacy ratio management, banks' credit delivery capability is generally constrained.

According to the reporter's prediction, the new loans set by the regulators this year are between 7 trillion and 7 trillion and 500 billion. According to the quarterly credit arrangement of 3:3:2:2, the new credit in the first half of the year has hit the bottom of the scale control. The new loan projections in the second half of this year will reach 2 trillion and 780 billion yuan, and the two will add up to 6 trillion and 950 billion yuan, so the new loan scale will probably fall below 7 trillion.

However, Nomura Securities pointed out that the growth rate of M2 money supply in June accelerated from 15.1% in May to 15.9%, higher than market expectations.

In June, new RMB loans increased by 633 billion 900 million yuan, which was also higher than market expectations.

It is expected that the people's Bank of China will further relax credit control to minimize the impact of financial restraint, and continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation in the second half of this year. In 2011, the total amount of new RMB loans reached 8 trillion yuan.

It may raise interest rates.

Inflation is unlikely to fall sharply.

"There is still a long way to go to raise interest rates."

It is expected that the people's Bank of Nomura will continue to raise interest rates because the actual capital cost is still too low, and the 1 year real deposit rate after the increase is still only -2%, and inflation will not fall sharply in the second half of the year, and inflation will rise again in 2012, influenced by structural factors.

"We think China may relax credit line measures to avoid a sharp economic slowdown, but at the same time continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation."

Nomura Securities economist said that it expects to raise interest rates by 25 basis points again in the future, and this year it has raised interest rates by 100 basis points this year.

It is still expected that the 1 year deposit rate will be raised for the four time in 2012.

From the investment market situation, Guoxin Securities development research headquarters Chen Huiying said last week that the central bank decided to raise the benchmark.

This group is composed of Xinhua news agency and evening news.

Xinhua commentary

Speed is by no means

The "key" of the current economy

China's economic "semi annual report" for the two consecutive quarter of the economic growth rate of decline caused great concern outside, and even there is no shortage of "hard landing" concerns.

However, for the current Chinese economy, the speed of speed is by no means "crucial".

An indisputable fact is that China's economic growth is shifting from the normal growth of recovery to the international financial crisis package stimulus plan to the normal growth rate of independent growth.

Under this important background, the moderate fall in speed is in line with the macroeconomic regulation and control trend of China's economy.

Compared with the figure of economic growth, the real important problem is that the pformation of development pattern is the core of China's economy in the whole "12th Five-Year" or even longer period.

If you want to get something, you must lose something.

We must regulate the real estate market, control the high energy consuming industries, and readjust and balance the relationship between China and foreign countries.

These major strategic adjustments related to the long-term development of China's economy will be at the expense of the current speed.

We need to make deep adjustments to the national income distribution relations, boost the consumption of residents, and speed up the improvement of the social security system.

In the short term, these measures are difficult to add to the economic growth, but they can lay a solid foundation for long-term development.

After more than 30 years of reform and opening up, China has leapt from low-income countries to middle-income countries, and from middle income countries to high income countries, it is impossible to duplicate the previous path simply.

Whether the future can go up to the next stage depends on whether the pformation of development mode can really go through, rather than whether the economy can maintain rapid growth in the short term.