• <abbr id="ck0wi"><source id="ck0wi"></source></abbr>
    <li id="ck0wi"></li>
  • <li id="ck0wi"><dl id="ck0wi"></dl></li><button id="ck0wi"><input id="ck0wi"></input></button>
  • <abbr id="ck0wi"></abbr>
  • <li id="ck0wi"><dl id="ck0wi"></dl></li>
  • Home >

    Yang Zhiyong: The Difficulty Of Macroeconomic Operation Under Inflationary Pressure

    2011/7/16 9:05:00 51

    Inflation Pressure And Macroeconomic Operation

    In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy handed out a basically satisfactory answer: GDP grew by 9.6%, and the economy maintained a relatively fast growth. The worry of stagflation did not become a reality.

    However, the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.4% in the first half of the year, especially in June, reaching 6.4%, a record high in 3 years.

    Pork prices increased by 57.1% in June.

    Under inflation pressure, the price sensitive population is also expanding.

    It is very difficult to achieve the goal of controlling CPI within 4% throughout the year.


    According to the general logic, since pork prices are so great impact on CPI, we should first look for them.

    "Old pig"

    Yes.

    It is true that the pressure on pork prices will drop if the supply of pork is increased, but will the price of pork go all the way?

    After careful investigation, we will find that many factors can not be eliminated only by "old pigs".

    The cost of raising pigs is increasing, feed costs are rising and labor costs are rising. This is caused by factors other than "old pigs".

    Further questioning, we may find other reasons for rising feed costs and labor costs, especially the monetary expansion factors.


    Excessive issuance of money is

    Inflation

    The most basic reason.

    Although, in the short term, the overissued currencies may be absorbed by the real economy or stay on the way to constitute effective demand, the excessive issuance of money will eventually lead to inflation.

    Inflation is always a currency phenomenon, and it will not change due to the great changes in prices in the short run.

    Like the US now, two rounds of quantitative easing have been implemented, and monetary policy is still brewing for the third round of expansion.

    Economic globalization and dollarization helped the United States digest many of the over issued US dollars, but the outflow of US dollars will eventually return to the US. When we look at it then, inflation will never be mild, but it must be aggressive.


    Current domestic currency in China

    Swelling pressure

    It has nothing to do with excessive issuance of money.

    Over $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves is too large.

    Although the mandatory foreign exchange sale has been cancelled, there is no reason for the various economic subjects to keep foreign exchange in their own hands in anticipation of the appreciation of the renminbi.

    The central bank has been issuing money passively for 17 years because of the sale and purchase of foreign exchange, so the currency that has been released has already been making waves in the market.

    China's unique "one line, three meetings" macro financial management system makes bank lending largely to the central bank.

    The rapid expansion of bank credit in recent years also means that the speed of money circulation is accelerating, which means that the monetary expansion beyond the central bank is deepening.

    Under the central bank's helplessness, there is an exploration of macro prudential supervision.

    However, regulation is originally a microscopic matter, which is carried out to ensure the normal operation and safe operation of the regulated financial enterprises.

    To a large extent, prudential supervision of macro finance is based on the intervention of financial enterprises' autonomy in operation.


    Due to the lack of innovation in monetary policy tools, the use of traditional monetary policy tools has been applied to the extreme.

    In market economy, the deposit reserve instruments that should not be used frequently were frequently used, and even invented "dynamic differential deposit reserve ratio adjustment".

    Obviously, this is the manifestation of micro intervention.

    Monetary policy is overstretched, and the meaning of prudent monetary policy is puzzling.

    It is tight, and foreign currency reserves are releasing a large amount of money; it is expanding, and the increase in deposit reserve ratio and interest rate also shows that it is tightening.


    The issue of monetary policy can also be listed many.

    With the tightening of domestic money, domestic SMEs are short of funds and private interest rates remain high. If they are not handled prudently, if SMEs fail, they will have a great impact on employment.

    At this point, we need to reflect on the question: who will benefit the money expansion?

    When money is tight, who is it?

    Monetary policy, as a mismatch between the beneficiaries of the main body and the losers, also shows that the financial environment needed by different enterprises is different.

    How to care for and create a good financial ecosystem needs a lot of effort.


    Behind the high prices is the wrestling among the various economic entities, and you have risen too.

    However, this is only a representation. In the final analysis, we need to find a breakthrough in solving the problem from the macro financial management system.

    How to change the passive issue of currency is a problem that central banks need to solve first.


    In addition, the US federal government has reached the upper limit of the issuance of treasury bonds, and if there is no breakthrough, there will be a risk of default.

    The debt crisis of EU sovereign states is becoming more and more intense. It is not known whether the debt crisis of peripheral countries will lead to debt crisis in Germany and France. However, the seriousness of the problem has forced us to further consider the coordination and matching of monetary policy and fiscal policy.

    One of the biggest problems in the eurozone's macroeconomic operation is the mismatch between monetary policy and fiscal policy, that is, the unification of monetary policy and fiscal policy.

    This revelation to China is also obvious.


    Is China's fiscal policy going to continue to expand or to deflate?

    The unclear direction of monetary policy brings difficulties to the choice of fiscal policy.

    But one thing is for sure, that is the construction of modern financial system.

    At least the following points can be done: to build a standardized intergovernmental fiscal relationship, so that the problem of controllable local government debt can be well resolved; standardizing the financial expenditure system and further improving fiscal pparency, even if the revenue falls, can also guarantee the need for the improvement of public services; reform the government revenue system, while standardizing the non tax revenue, and promote the adjustment of the tax structure.


     
    • Related reading

    Liu Kan: The Economy Will Further Cool Down

    Macro economy
    |
    2011/7/16 9:01:00
    54

    Macroeconomic July: The Cumulative Impact Of Tightening Will Continue To Emerge.

    Macro economy
    |
    2011/7/15 10:18:00
    41

    Inflation Control Remains The Primary Goal Of Macroeconomic Regulation And Control

    Macro economy
    |
    2011/7/15 10:17:00
    53

    How Does The US Macroeconomic Policy Go?

    Macro economy
    |
    2011/7/15 10:15:00
    34

    Macro Adjustment And Control Did Not Reach The &Nbsp When Direction Was Adjusted; Experts' Situation Was Very Different.

    Macro economy
    |
    2011/7/15 10:12:00
    44
    Read the next article

    In The First Half Of The Year, The Macro-Economy Was Optimistic About &Nbsp; The Second Half Of The Market Depended On Fundamentals.

    This week, in the first half of this year, the macro-economic data in the first half of the year were better than expected, and began to rise daily from Wednesday. Yesterday, there appeared a "three Lian Yang" phenomenon, which rose 61 points in the week, or 2.21%, and the market volume also increased.

    主站蜘蛛池模板: 欧美肥老太肥506070| 97久久精品无码一区二区| www.日日干| 精品久久无码中文字幕| 成人H动漫精品一区二区| 国产a久久精品一区二区三区| 亚洲欧美日韩国产精品专区| 99aiav国产精品视频| 老马的春天顾晓婷5| 放荡的女老板bd| 国产无人区一区二区三区| 亚洲精品午夜国产va久久成人| 99热这里有免费国产精品| 色中色在线视频| 成人免费一区二区三区 | 伊人久久大香线蕉久久婷婷| а√天堂资源地址在线官网| 狠狠97人人婷婷五月| 在线精品自拍亚洲第一区| 再深点灬舒服了灬太大了在线观看| 久久精品中文字幕大胸| 窝窝影院午夜看片| 欧美黑人巨大白妞出浆| 国产精品日韩一区二区三区| 亚洲中文字幕无码av在线| 88aa四虎影成人精品| 欧美一级视频在线观看欧美| 国产成人精品日本亚洲专区61| 久久久噜噜噜久久中文字幕色伊伊| 很黄很污的视频网站| 精品久久久久久无码人妻热 | 久久久久久亚洲精品中文字幕| 色综合a怡红院怡红院首页| 欧美日韩国产欧美| 在线精品91青草国产在线观看| 亚洲欧美日韩一区在线观看| 日本aⅴ日本高清视频影片www| 欧美www网站| 国产特级毛片AAAAAA视频 | 国产成人精品免费视频大全可播放的 | 国产乱人伦无无码视频试看|