Yang Zhiyong: The Difficulty Of Macroeconomic Operation Under Inflationary Pressure
In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy handed out a basically satisfactory answer: GDP grew by 9.6%, and the economy maintained a relatively fast growth. The worry of stagflation did not become a reality.
However, the consumer price index (CPI) was 5.4% in the first half of the year, especially in June, reaching 6.4%, a record high in 3 years.
Pork prices increased by 57.1% in June.
Under inflation pressure, the price sensitive population is also expanding.
It is very difficult to achieve the goal of controlling CPI within 4% throughout the year.
According to the general logic, since pork prices are so great impact on CPI, we should first look for them.
"Old pig"
Yes.
It is true that the pressure on pork prices will drop if the supply of pork is increased, but will the price of pork go all the way?
After careful investigation, we will find that many factors can not be eliminated only by "old pigs".
The cost of raising pigs is increasing, feed costs are rising and labor costs are rising. This is caused by factors other than "old pigs".
Further questioning, we may find other reasons for rising feed costs and labor costs, especially the monetary expansion factors.
Excessive issuance of money is
Inflation
The most basic reason.
Although, in the short term, the overissued currencies may be absorbed by the real economy or stay on the way to constitute effective demand, the excessive issuance of money will eventually lead to inflation.
Inflation is always a currency phenomenon, and it will not change due to the great changes in prices in the short run.
Like the US now, two rounds of quantitative easing have been implemented, and monetary policy is still brewing for the third round of expansion.
Economic globalization and dollarization helped the United States digest many of the over issued US dollars, but the outflow of US dollars will eventually return to the US. When we look at it then, inflation will never be mild, but it must be aggressive.
Current domestic currency in China
Swelling pressure
It has nothing to do with excessive issuance of money.
Over $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves is too large.
Although the mandatory foreign exchange sale has been cancelled, there is no reason for the various economic subjects to keep foreign exchange in their own hands in anticipation of the appreciation of the renminbi.
The central bank has been issuing money passively for 17 years because of the sale and purchase of foreign exchange, so the currency that has been released has already been making waves in the market.
China's unique "one line, three meetings" macro financial management system makes bank lending largely to the central bank.
The rapid expansion of bank credit in recent years also means that the speed of money circulation is accelerating, which means that the monetary expansion beyond the central bank is deepening.
Under the central bank's helplessness, there is an exploration of macro prudential supervision.
However, regulation is originally a microscopic matter, which is carried out to ensure the normal operation and safe operation of the regulated financial enterprises.
To a large extent, prudential supervision of macro finance is based on the intervention of financial enterprises' autonomy in operation.
Due to the lack of innovation in monetary policy tools, the use of traditional monetary policy tools has been applied to the extreme.
In market economy, the deposit reserve instruments that should not be used frequently were frequently used, and even invented "dynamic differential deposit reserve ratio adjustment".
Obviously, this is the manifestation of micro intervention.
Monetary policy is overstretched, and the meaning of prudent monetary policy is puzzling.
It is tight, and foreign currency reserves are releasing a large amount of money; it is expanding, and the increase in deposit reserve ratio and interest rate also shows that it is tightening.
The issue of monetary policy can also be listed many.
With the tightening of domestic money, domestic SMEs are short of funds and private interest rates remain high. If they are not handled prudently, if SMEs fail, they will have a great impact on employment.
At this point, we need to reflect on the question: who will benefit the money expansion?
When money is tight, who is it?
Monetary policy, as a mismatch between the beneficiaries of the main body and the losers, also shows that the financial environment needed by different enterprises is different.
How to care for and create a good financial ecosystem needs a lot of effort.
Behind the high prices is the wrestling among the various economic entities, and you have risen too.
However, this is only a representation. In the final analysis, we need to find a breakthrough in solving the problem from the macro financial management system.
How to change the passive issue of currency is a problem that central banks need to solve first.
In addition, the US federal government has reached the upper limit of the issuance of treasury bonds, and if there is no breakthrough, there will be a risk of default.
The debt crisis of EU sovereign states is becoming more and more intense. It is not known whether the debt crisis of peripheral countries will lead to debt crisis in Germany and France. However, the seriousness of the problem has forced us to further consider the coordination and matching of monetary policy and fiscal policy.
One of the biggest problems in the eurozone's macroeconomic operation is the mismatch between monetary policy and fiscal policy, that is, the unification of monetary policy and fiscal policy.
This revelation to China is also obvious.
Is China's fiscal policy going to continue to expand or to deflate?
The unclear direction of monetary policy brings difficulties to the choice of fiscal policy.
But one thing is for sure, that is the construction of modern financial system.
At least the following points can be done: to build a standardized intergovernmental fiscal relationship, so that the problem of controllable local government debt can be well resolved; standardizing the financial expenditure system and further improving fiscal pparency, even if the revenue falls, can also guarantee the need for the improvement of public services; reform the government revenue system, while standardizing the non tax revenue, and promote the adjustment of the tax structure.
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