In The First Half Of The Year, The Macro-Economy Was Optimistic About &Nbsp; The Second Half Of The Market Depended On Fundamentals.

This week, in the first half of this year, the macro-economic data in the first half of the year were better than expected, and began to rise daily from Wednesday. Yesterday, there appeared a "three Lian Yang" phenomenon, which rose 61 points in the week, or 2.21%, and the market volume also increased. So does this mean that the current fundamentals, policies and funding still support this upward trend? To this end, the reporter interviewed Wang Jianhui, chief economist of de Heng Securities, Southwest Securities [11.87 0% shares, deputy director of the Institute, Zhao Guoxin, director of the new era securities research and development center.

Fundamentals: Macro economy Better than expected

Reporter: on Wednesday, the National Bureau of statistics released the macroeconomic data in the first half of this year. What kind of evaluation do you give?

Qing Dynasty: the GDP released by the National Bureau of statistics increased 9.6% in the first half year, which is basically the same as the market expectations. Although the economic growth in the two quarter decreased by 0.2 percentage points in the first quarter, the growth rate of 9.5% in the two quarter was still high. In the first half of this year, the growth rate was 9.5%. This is the highest rate of economic growth in the world, and there is no need to worry.

On the whole, consumer demand is not strong. But with the increase of the tax threshold in September this year, the income of 160 billion yuan can be increased by the year of calculation. Then the disposable income of residents will increase by about 50000000000 yuan in the four months of this year. This will have a positive impact on consumption. According to the import and export situation in the first half of the year, the trade surplus has narrowed by 18.2%, the reason is that the import volume is greater than the export volume. Due to the rapid growth of the macro-economy, the performance of listed companies has not dropped significantly, and more than 70% of the listed companies have increased in advance.

Wang Jianhui: from the first half of this year GDP growth The change of amplitude shows that the two quarter has declined compared with the first quarter, but the risk of "hard landing" is not large. Investment in fixed assets increased by 25.6% over the same period last year, indicating that investment is still the main force to drive economic growth, and investment in fixed assets is the most important contribution to economic growth.

Import is an important indicator of the domestic economic trend. The growth rate of imports in June was lower than expected, but it was mainly due to the fall in the price increase, and the growth rate of import products continued to increase. This means to a certain extent, the domestic economy is not bad, the economic callback amplitude has slowed down and entered the bottoming stage. In order to adjust the economic structure and spanform the mode of economic development, China should slow down the economic growth, which is determined by the objective economic law. The slowdown in economic growth does not mean that the economy is not functioning properly. Now this growth rate is more appropriate. From the macroeconomic data in the first half of this year, the growth rate of the ring has dropped slightly, but it is still in the controllable range. Even if the growth rate in the second half of this year continues to decline, the "eight guarantee" target for the whole year can be achieved. In particular, 60% listed companies reported good news, which is the most important factor to support the market.

Zhao Guoxin: GDP grew by 9.6% in the first half of the year, including 9.7% in the first quarter and 9.5% in the two quarter. GDP growth slowed in the two quarter, also in line with the general expectations before the market. This expectation comes from the PMI data released by the previous official authorities for 3 consecutive months.

Although the data show that the economy is indeed slowing down, the current macro data still look stable, but behind it has already revealed the risk of a sharp downturn in the economy. The growth rate of fixed assets investment is 25.6%, which seems to be rising compared with the figure of 25% last year, but this figure is only 0.6% higher than that of last year, which fully reflects the serious decline of market demand. In addition, at the end of November last year, the total investment of 49 trillion and 800 billion construction projects in the whole country reached 42 trillion at the end of May this year, which indicates that investment demand is also decreasing. The total planned investment for new investment projects representing the future investment increased by 6.4% in the first 5 months. In addition to the current PPI factors, the investment in new projects has been negative. Comparing the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 16.8% over the same period this year, it still looks good, but last year's growth rate was 18.2%. That is to say, the growth rate of consumer demand has not been expanded, but it is still decreasing.

I think China's economy should take precautions against two risks in 2011: first, prevent Overheated economy The two is to prevent the economy from falling too fast. In the international market, the European debt crisis is endless, and the ups and downs of international commodities are difficult to determine. China does not have the right to speak, so its impact on China's economy and inflation is uncertain.

Policy aspect: short term hard to see signs of loosening

Reporter: according to the macroeconomic data and price level in the first half of the year, what are your basic judgments on the direction of monetary policy?

Qingyi: it is estimated that the CPI will remain above 5.5% in the three quarter and fall to about 4.5% in the fourth quarter. The annual CPI inflation is forecast to 5.2%.

From the domestic point of view, the excessive issuance of money is not overnight. Therefore, the liquidity easing caused by the long-term money supply will not ease the pressure on inflation soon. The peak of this round of inflation may be delayed to the three quarter, and annual inflation is expected to reach 5.3%-5.4%, exceeding the government's 4% target. Price rises may still be higher in the three quarter, but the four quarter is expected to show a more obvious drop. This year's price adjustment target is "difficult to achieve", because China's grain reserves are adequate, and the overall domestic market is slightly bigger than the demand pattern has not changed. Against this background, the macro-control policies in the second half of this year may be fine-tuning, while insisting on "controlling prices", we further emphasize "steady growth and structural adjustment". "Controlling prices" is still the top priority of regulation in the second half of the year, but the key is to deal with the relationship between the three "steady growth, structural adjustment and price control".

Wang Jianhui: June CPI high is mainly due to the rise in pork prices represented by pork. If prices remain high in the three quarter, we should continue to raise interest rates. The central bank's monetary policy committee described the current inflation pressure in the second quarter regular meeting. All these are sending a signal that the main task of monetary policy is to control inflation when inflation pressure remains high.

At present, the conditions for easing monetary policy are not yet available, but it is possible to carry out appropriate structural fine-tuning under tight overall conditions. In the short term, the central bank will not raise interest rates again, but it is still necessary to observe the interest rate increase in the second half of the year.

Zhao Guoxin: judging from the current situation of price rise, it is not easy to say when the summit is going to happen. Pork prices will rise greatly, which will affect the whole price level. Therefore, monetary policy will not change in the short term. Of course, management is in a dilemma. Maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations have become an important examination of the regulatory level of the management.

In terms of tightening monetary policy options, there will be appropriate fine-tuning, that is, we should give priority to the choice of price instruments that have little impact on economic growth and are more effective against inflation. Taking account of the frequent increase of the reserve ratio earlier, the surplus reserve ratio of the small and medium banks has basically no surplus, and the "off balance sheet" financial products yield and the loan interest rates of the small and medium enterprises are much higher than the benchmark interest rates. The timely increase of deposit interest rate will help to alleviate the negative interest rate for a long time and help bank funds return to the "table", which is the most effective way to fight inflation and guard against "off balance sheet" risks of banks. At present, there is a view that raising interest rates can play a role in "suppressing" the real estate market, and facts prove that its effect is limited because there is a large proportion of funds outside the banking system. This part of the fund is not affected by interest rate adjustment.

Capital side: characteristics of structural shortage

Reporter: what do you think of the recent capital market?

Qinghua: the increase in the operation of the central bank's open market shows the intention of the central bank to tighten the liquidity of the banking system. Because the central bank has issued 11 billion yuan 1 year central bank vote and 99 billion yuan 28 day repo operation on Tuesday. The funds expended 125 billion yuan this week, so that the central bank's open market operation this week not only completely hedged the maturity funds, but also realized a net return of 86 billion yuan. This is the first time the central bank has returned to net for the first time in 9 weeks, ending the 8 consecutive week of net investment.

In the open market to play a role in withdrawal, in July the central bank once again raised the deposit reserve ratio of the possibility of reduction. The Central Bank continues to tighten liquidity and has a negative impact on market funds. At present, the shortage of funds is a structural shortage. Banks are not short of money. Now the [3.12 -0.32% shares of the Bank of China are likely to be among the best in the world. The real shortage of funds is enterprises, such as small and medium-sized enterprises are already short of money. Now banks are tightening lending. Now there are some measures. All banks are setting up the SME credit department, providing funds for small and medium enterprises, and having some preferential conditions. There are some measures like these, but they are not in place now.

Wang Jianhui: in the second half of this year, there may be 2 or two "accurate" space. As for the time to increase, we should regard the change of market liquidity of inflation level. If the trade surplus is too large, the time for upregulation will move ahead.

At present, there are many factors to reduce the capital. In addition to the net return of 36 billion yuan, in the first half of the year, the total amount of IPO672 financing reached US $111 billion 100 million, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. In the two quarter, a total of 108 Chinese enterprises, IPO, amounted to 20 billion 400 million US dollars, accounting for 28.6% of the total number of IPO in the world and 31.6% of the total financing. From the relevant data, the IPO activities of Chinese enterprises have slowed down in the second quarter of this year, but they are all in the leading position in the world from the number of IPO and the amount of financing. Under the background of the shortage of funds this year, the amount of IPO financing has not been reduced, resulting in continuous pressure on the stock market. At the same time, since July, the average number of listed shares has increased by more than 90%, and the average rate of return to new year has reached 106%. In June, the new income was negative. Stimulated by the money making effect, more than 100 billion of the capital has returned to the primary market once again, and the first tier market has hit a new capital of 200 billion yuan a week. Since July, the IPO has skyrocketed, attracting funds to return to the primary market. Under the current tight capital situation, the first tier market is booming, and some two tier market funds are diverted.

Zhao Guoxin: monetary policy will not change in the short term, and will be "directional loose" for SMEs. But I understand that "directional easing" is to allow more SMEs to go public financing, which will increase the pressure of market expansion.

The raising of the current reserve rate is coming to an end. The central bank will rely more on the means of open market operation to adjust the liquidity between the markets. In addition, the funds for the open market will fall significantly in the second half of the year. Liquidity recovery by open market will become the norm. In the future, the central bank will mainly use the open market operation and recovery funds, and the average level of interbank repo rate will gradually close to the 1 year central bank rate. Thus, in the future, the central bank will mainly use the open market operation to recover the funds. This can adjust the rational distribution of funds, give full play to the leverage of interest rates, weaken financial privileges and monopoly factors, and conform to the "flexibility" of monetary policy.

Major trend: Valuation recovery shock upward

Reporter: Based on the above facts and analysis, what are your basic judgments on the recent market trend?

Wang Jianhui: the market has achieved a breakthrough in the phased direction, from 2610 points up 200 points, and this week appeared "three Lian Yang" phenomenon. If there is no major bad news in the near future, then the next stage will run between 2800-3000 points, and the market will basically have no room to fall. The performance of the newspaper will be better than the market expectation is the biggest driving force.

From the plate perspective, although large cap stocks do not currently have a large level of funds to promote, but because of its stable performance, the valuation advantage is obvious, even if it does not rise, but it will not fall there. The performance of small and medium cap stocks is better than expected, and the amount of capital needed is not large. Coupled with the full adjustment in the early stage, the basis and conditions for the rebound have been achieved.

As for management, we must take necessary measures to limit the two or three line cities that are rising too fast. The impact on the market will not be great, and the large-scale construction of affordable housing will have some negative effects. Of course, from a technical point of view, yesterday's collection of a small line, after stabilizing the annual line, short-term need to concussion to gather enough to do more popularity, otherwise, with the rebound to the 2850 point chip intensive area, will encounter greater resistance. It is suggested that short-term operation should be the main means of operation.

Qing Dynasty: the stock market is a barometer of the economy. The economic growth rate in the first half of the year is still up to 9.6%, which is better than the market expectation, and the market is more worried about the local government debt problem. In fact, according to the 10 trillion and 700 billion yuan local debt announced by the National Audit Office, the number of local government debt is only 38.9% of that of GDP, so there is no crisis. Conversely, if the scale of government debt continues to expand significantly, it will mean a positive shift in fiscal policy, which will help macroeconomic declines. This is obviously the reason why many listed companies are supported by the industrial agglomeration effect.

Semi annual quotations are still continuing, and the performance of banks that are expected to be ideal has yet to be strengthened. Investors should not blindly look at the bears and miss the opportunity. At the same time, some regulatory policies promulgated by the government currently have some negative effects on some industries in the short term, but they are favorable to the market from the perspective of long-term investment or value investment. Elimination of backward production capacity will enhance the industrial agglomeration effect. The backward cement production capacity will be 153 million 270 thousand tons this year, accounting for 8.15% of the domestic cement output last year. In contrast, the cement industry's capacity aggregation effect is obviously more worthy of expectation. We have emphasized the concentration of industries for many times, which is an important policy factor for the sustained growth of Listed Companies in the macroeconomic slowdown. If the government's work that benefits the country and the people can continue year after year, even if the economic growth rate continues to slow down in the future, investors can still benefit from it. Based on the above factors, the recent market will continue the valuation of the repair market.

Zhao Guoxin: the market will go up again. Judging from the current rally, it is not impossible to reach 200 points in the next month, reaching 3000 points. The key is the confidence of the market. At present, the market concerns come from two aspects: first, whether the economic growth in the second half of the year can maintain the level of the first half of the year, because this directly relates to the performance of the upper market companies; two, whether the inflation level can gradually fall back, because it is related to whether monetary policy can be loosened. Now it seems that there will be no runaway situation in the two aspects mentioned above. If viewed from the micro level, the recent market will benefit from the announcement of the market company's China Daily this year. But in the future, the market will not rise and fall. Therefore, opportunities are also structural.

The present opportunity is: in the short term, there will be small and medium sized stocks with outstanding performance and a moderate increase in the number of newspapers. From the announcement of the performance of this year's report, more than 70% of the performance of the upper market companies is growing. However, according to the usual practice, the listed companies whose performance growth is first announced and the listed companies whose performance is declining will be announced. According to the time schedule announced by the newspaper, it is estimated that by mid August, the good news will be announced, so the phased rebound will probably end here. Of course, if we want to achieve the 2850 point of success, we must rely on the large influx of off site funds rather than the band flow of funds in the field. Therefore, it is very important to enlarge the volume in the future market, otherwise the short-term shock pattern will be difficult to change.