Experts Differ Sharply In Macroeconomic Judgment 2011

The HSBC China manufacturing PMI preview index, released yesterday, intensified in July.

The first is about economic growth.

There is a consensus that the slowdown in the three quarter will continue.

But does this slowdown mean the economic downturn, whether it is dominated by regulatory policies or slowing down within the controlled range?

Although they do not think there will be a hard landing at present, even if the soft landing is a big blow to the macro-economy, economists will have different opinions.

Ba Shu song, deputy director of the Finance Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, thinks that the level of data is almost the same as that of the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008, while the growth rate of the real economy is not as good as that of the time, so there is a risk of overshooting.

However, Lian Ping, chief economist of the bank, remains optimistic about economic growth.

He believes that this year and 2008 are different conditions, the United States and Europe are experiencing a slow recovery, rather than then.

Economists also have different views on controlling inflation expectations or raising interest rates.

Lian Ping believes that inflation is actually under control because of the elimination of the tail factor and the sufficiency of China's grain supply. He estimates that it will drop to around 4% in the second half of the year.

Of course, if inflation is seen in July June, it will not be necessary to raise interest rates.

Some economists think that CPI does not have a peaked judgement, as long as it is over developed.