China'S Economic Hard Landing Is Unlikely.

The State Council Development Research Center held academic exchanges to explore the current macroeconomic situation in China: at present, macro-control has not made any directional errors, but the risk of "hard landing" has to be prevented.

The potential growth rate of China's economy may decline in the future.

At present, for the next step of China's macro-economic development, there are different judgments at home and abroad, including pessimism and pessimism, and even speculation about "hard landing" and overall stagflation.

So what is the current macroeconomic situation in China?

What are the problems and risks?

Is it possible for the growth rate to slide down to a "hard landing" or a normal cycle adjustment?

What are the different countermeasures?

In July 20th, at the "academic exchange luncheon" held by the State Council Development Research Center, participants thought that the overall macroeconomic regulation and control had not made any directional errors at present, because the economic stall and "hard landing" caused by regulation and control were not likely, but the risk of "hard landing" should not be prevented.

The potential growth rate of China's economy may decline in the future.

Short term economic correction

Chen Changsheng, an associate professor of the Department of macroeconomic research of the State Council Development Research Center, said that the current international investment banks, IMF and rating agencies are singing more about China's economic prospects.

Its core logic is: on the one hand, excessive investment, especially during the period of crisis, may lead to overcapacity and decline in efficiency, and then lead to financial and financial risks. On the other hand, if monetary tightening policy is adopted to control inflation, if it is not in place, there will be another risk of bubble; if excessive deflation, it may lead to a marked decline in China's economic growth.

Once the economic growth rate has dropped, it will further increase the risk of local debt, resulting in the increase of non-performing loans and trigger systemic risks of banks.

If coupled with the European debt crisis, the slowdown in the US economy, the slow economic recovery in Japan after the disaster, and currency fluctuations, it will have an adverse impact on China's economic growth and even lead to a "hard landing" of China's economy.

"No matter what the outside world looks like or for what purpose, we should be cautious about the problems and risks in China's economic development."

Chen Changsheng said that through the analysis of the current state of economic operation, he has four basic judgments on the short-term China's economic situation: first, the economy is still in a slight pullback in the short term, but the downside is limited, and there is no sign of systemic deep callbacks.

The downside of the international economy should also be a limited adjustment.

Secondly, the price spike is near, and the price pressure is decreasing in the second half of the year.

Thirdly, macroeconomic regulation and control has not made any directional errors, and the intensity of regulation is not very tight. Because of the possibility of stall and hard landing caused by regulation and control, if we relax regulation and control for the sake of growth, the risk of re bubble will be greater.

Finally, the risk of local debt is severe, but it is not yet out of control. If the economy does not decline in depth, systemic finance will happen in the near future.

Wei Ning, deputy director of the Department of macroeconomic research of the State Council Development Research Center, said that because the current economic situation is very complex, the "hard landing" of all sectors of the economy is more of a risk prediction, and the "soft landing" may be a more bold prediction. In other words, if the policy is not properly handled, the risk of a hard landing is indeed not small.

According to Wei Jianing, according to the law of economic fluctuations, there will be minor adjustments after the general small boom. There will be a big adjustment after the big boom. At present, the Chinese economy itself needs to make a big adjustment.

In addition, China's current income gap is too large, resulting in insufficient consumer demand and overcapacity.

Moreover, many analysts worry that the US dollar's trend may rebound, which will attract Chinese capital flight, plus the risk of easy local government debt and difficult braking, which may become a risk factor for the "hard landing" of the economy.

Wei said that the risk of "hard landing" had to be prevented, which required a better macro control art.

We need to solve the problem of growth potential and low efficiency.

"It is not so pessimistic in the short term, but China's economy is at an important turning point. Some problems and risks need to be focused on and prevented."

Through the analysis of the decline in China's investment efficiency, the distortion of resources allocation under the monetary impact, and the impact of labor costs rising on the overall price, Chen Changsheng puts forward several suggestions for the short-term coping strategies of the economy. First, changing the situation of credit capital and investment to the state sector is a necessary measure to ease the systemic risk of investment benefit.

Second, while implementing relative monetary tightening, we should adopt a structural tax reduction policy to reduce the operating costs of small and medium-sized enterprises, encourage investment and innovation, and enhance the vitality and efficiency of China's overall economy.

Third, monetary policy should be moderately tight in the next two years.

Enhance exchange rate flexibility, reduce domestic labor costs and price pressures, while reducing foreign exchange money.

Fourth, speed up the reform of the price system and reduce the distortion of the dual price system to the economic behavior.

Under the permissible macroeconomic conditions, China may need to price again.

Fifth, we must speed up the regulation of local debt and risk management systems, formulate plans for coping with debt crisis, establish a government asset liability management system based on accrual basis, and improve China's macro risk management framework.

Fang Jin, deputy director of the research department of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that only the invisible risk can cause social panic. At present, the Chinese economy does not exist such a risk.

Moreover, there will be no risk of a hard landing in the short term.

Fang Jin believes that in the past 30 years, China's economy has been developing rapidly by relying on reform and opening up. Now this dividend has disappeared. Therefore, economic development needs to further change the way of development and adjust its structure.

Liu Shijin, the moderator of the academic exchange and deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, said that the current economic situation is complex and changeable, and the risks in the economy are intertwined with domestic, international, short-term and long-term risks. But looking at the whole situation, we need to clarify two problems: first, the potential of economic growth; secondly, the problem of low efficiency and the establishment of error correction mechanism.

Liu Shijin believes that the potential growth rate of China's economy in the future may decline, which will be a test.

At the same time, some low efficiency risks have been covered up in the current economic form. It is necessary to establish relevant mechanisms for exposing these risks.

In addition, the allocation of resources is also a problem, the proportion of state-owned and non-state-owned imbalance, which will have a certain impact on economic development.