Gu Shengzu: To Prevent Potential Risks In Macroeconomic Regulation And Control

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the results of the first half of the national economy.

In an interview with the NPC Standing Committee, Gu Shengzu, vice chairman and economist of the Central Committee of the people's Republic of China, he pointed out that in the first half of the year, the economy remained stable and relatively fast, and the "hard landing" and "stagflation" were relieved. However, there still existed a series of unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable problems in the macro-economy.

Unbalance of money, rising costs, entanglement in employment, lack of consumption and unreasonable distribution further test the wisdom of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Macroeconomic regulation and control is not only an art, but also a skill. At present, we should enhance risk awareness and prevent potential risks from deepening.

Gu Shengzu believes that the current macroeconomic regulation needs to face up to the five problems in the operation of the economy.

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Two, the cost of enterprises is rising too fast.

The era of high cost has become increasingly prominent: interest rate, exchange rate, tax rate, rate of "four rates", salaries, rents, land pfer payments "three gold", raw material purchase price and resource environment cost "two price", nine factors superimposition to promote the cost of enterprises rose straight.

The profits of micro enterprises are thinner than those of "razor blades", and many enterprises are losing their operations. Investigations have claimed that 20% small and medium-sized enterprises in Wenzhou have failed.

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Four, the growth of residents' income is lagging behind the increase of fiscal revenue and corporate profits.

In the first half of the year, the national fiscal revenue increased by 31% compared with the same period last year, which is much higher than the 8% budget, which is 3-4 times the growth rate of GDP and residents' income.

Profits of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 27.9% over the same period last year.

Heavy taxes will push prices up, which is not conducive to raising wages for employees, restraining the increase of residents' incomes and expanding consumption, and reducing the affordability of residents' prices.

Five is

Gu Shengzu stressed that in the second half of the year, macroeconomic regulation and control must attach importance to solving the outstanding problems in the above economic operation and prevent potential risks from happening.

First, we must guard against the potential financial risks arising from disputes arising from local debts and bad loans from banks.

According to the National Audit Office data, the balance of local government debt exceeds 10 trillion and 700 billion yuan, and many of them need to repay principal and interest in the near future.

The CBRC statistics show that 50% of the local loans exist insufficient first repayment source.

Although local liabilities do not exceed the solvency of local governments in general, the pressure on short-term debt service is still relatively large under the background of shrinking land revenue and ensuring new loans for housing construction.

At present, local financing platforms must be managed according to law, local debts should be restructured, and the risk of bad debts of banks can be prevented from default.

At the same time, the lack of supervision and interest rate of private usury, the high interest rate, the pressure of repayment of principal and interest of small and medium-sized enterprises is huge, which implies a huge potential debt dispute risk, and may even indirectly pmit to the banking system.

To this end, we should relax financial control, regulate private finance, let private finance shine, and prevent private lending disputes from causing financial risks.

Two, we must guard against the plight caused by the superposition of various factors, causing a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises to stop production and halt production and a large number of potential risks of private capital free from the real economy.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are social "employment stabilizers" and the source of vitality for innovation and entrepreneurship.

However, at present, as the foundation of the national economy, small and medium-sized enterprises are deeply injured because of the plight of financing, labor shortage, high cost, heavy tax and electricity shortage.

If these difficulties can not be effectively alleviated, it will lead to a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises stop production and half stop production, and a large number of private capital will be separated from the real economy. This will not only threaten the economic growth and the employment of residents, but also bring about the hot money of private capital, hollow industries and bubble economy, which will bring risks to the smooth and healthy operation of the national economy.

At present, SMEs must be helped by strengthening tax reduction and fee reduction, increasing structural financial support, and supporting pformation and upgrading.

Three, we must guard against high prices, high housing prices and high cost of living, overcrowding the excessive consumption of residents' consumption and exiting too much investment, resulting in insufficient potential for economic growth to make the economy go downhill too fast.

With the reduction of external demand, expansion of household consumption is the driving force for growth.

In the first half of the year, the economic growth rate was slightly callback, which was mainly due to the slowdown in consumption growth and the decline in consumption of automobiles, building materials and decoration.

At present, we should guard against the potential risks of high prices, high prices, high living costs and excessive "extrusion" of residents' consumption and the overlay of investment "withdrawal", resulting in a significant decline in the speed of economic growth.

We should speed up the adjustment of income distribution, increase the proportion of residents' income in national income, strengthen the construction of public service system, and build a long-term mechanism to expand household consumption.