Zuo Xiaolei: 9.5% Growth Rate Healthy &Nbsp; Economic Hard Landing "Worry" Self Destruction

From the macro data, all sides are optimistic about the data.

Almost all analysts agree that from the analysis of economic data, the Chinese economy does not appear to have "hard landing" as predicted by some foreign media.

The Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China released the "mid 2011 China macroeconomic analysis and forecast report" that there will be no substantial slowdown in economic growth this year, and there will be no stagflation.

The reason is that some of the current indicators and the moderate fall in the corresponding period are expected results in the form of external improvement, domestic inflation control and structural adjustment. The political cycle effect of China's economy is obvious, and the policy effect of seeking growth goals and people's livelihood goals in 2011 will gradually enlarge.

Zuo Xiaolei, chief consultant of galaxy securities, said that although

For the recent two or three years, whether there is a hard landing problem predicted by foreign investment banks, the famous media man Deng Yuwen expressed the view that although there are factors affecting the economic development in the coming years, such as high house prices, increased bank bad debts and debts of local financing platforms, there is no possibility of a sharp drop in economic growth.

First of all, 7 consecutive years of grain production increase, so that China currently has adequate food supply, which has laid a good foundation for restricting inflation to continue to rise. Secondly, the construction of 36 million affordable housing in 3 years plus water conservancy construction in the next 10 years is enough to keep investment growth at a higher level.

Economic risks should not be underestimated.

The good news obtained from macroeconomic data does not indicate that there is no problem in the current Chinese economy. It is precisely in such a critical period that if there is no attention to some factors and some problems can not be solved, the risk of China's hard landing will still exist.

In the coming period, if the price problem represented by housing prices and the problem of local debt can not be well handled, the long-term economic growth will be dragged down.

Under the negative interest rate and inflation effect, although the real estate policy is still under severe regulation, housing prices are not showing signs of decline due to inflation expectations. In the first half of this year, investment in real estate development in the whole country was 26250 billion yuan, up 32.9% over the same period last year.

Although affordable housing can make up for part of the real estate investment, as a commodity closely related to the people, if there is no steady fall in housing prices, it will affect people's income, consumption and even confidence expectations, thus restricting the rapid growth of consumption.

More than housing prices are more concerned about the price level, which is closely related to the people have already had to consider carefully.

In the first half of the year, despite the tightening of monetary policy, the negative interest rate remained unchanged. The driving force of price rise was still high, and the consumer price index of residents was running at a high level.

In the first half of the year, the average price index was 5.4%. Especially in June, the sharp rise in pork prices made CPI reach a high of 6.4% in three years.

This means that it is almost impossible to achieve the target of 4% in the year.

If the price level can not be suppressed, it will be a great threat to China's economy.

The first batch of local government bonds issued in June 27th, which had been postponed to raise interest rates, were not fully subscribed.

Earlier, due to tight market funds, there have been multi issue of treasury bonds, but local debt is still the first time in recent years.

Jing Xiaoda, a fixed income analyst at Anxin securities, said the Treasury Department's local government debt was guaranteed by Treasury, and the market regarded it as a "Treasury bond".

However, because local debt is low in liquidity and low in stock, it is not easy to trade in the two tier market, so the degree of market acceptance is lower than that of treasury bonds.

At the same time, there is a lack of funds in the market.

The debt of the local financing platform has reached 10 trillion yuan, accounting for 20% of the total GDP last year, plus other debt and government debt. Although the total debt level is lower than that of other countries, the local financing platform involves the local governance capacity and the ability to supply public services. Once the breach occurs, it will spread to banks, triggering the financial risks of banks, and thus affecting the lending to enterprises, so this problem can not be underestimated.