Macroeconomic Perspectives Of The Six Institutions
Galaxy Securities: the three and fourth quarter growth rate of GDP is expected to be 9.6% and 9.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate for the whole year is 9.7%.
From the perspective of "three carriages", investment and consumption will remain stable in the second half of the year, and import and export will rebound. The main reason is that the recovery of Japan's economy and the stimulation of US economic policies will make the overseas economy recover.
Guotai Junan: as the downstream property and car sales have stabilized, the three quarter of the economy has picked up in the ring or in the short term.
But policy easing is expected to disappear, and the economy will be down again after the fourth quarter.
The three quarter GDP growth rate was increased to 9.2%, the fourth quarter GDP growth rate to 8.4%, the annual GDP growth rate to 9.2%, and GDP growth rate remained unchanged.
Haitong Securities: third quarter of this year
economic growth
Will continue to maintain steady growth, consumer demand will continue to grow steadily, affordable housing investment will become a bright spot, exports are expected to exceed expected growth.
After preliminary calculations, GDP grew by 9.4% in the third quarter.
Shanghai Securities: GDP reached 9.6% in the first half of the year, and the data is better than market expectations, indicating that China's economic growth is still strong.
"Hard landing"
The risk is very small.
The economic growth is mainly driven by the "three carriages". Consumption, investment and exports will not deteriorate significantly in the second half of this year. There is no need to worry too much about economic growth.
State Sea Securities: the two quarter GDP growth of 2.2%, higher than
First quarter
2.1%, a rebound, reflecting the momentum of economic growth is still relatively strong.
The growth rate of GDP is likely to rise slightly in the three quarter, which is expected to grow by 9.5% - 9.6% over the same period.
Guo Yuan Securities: in the second half of this year, the economic growth rate will continue to slow down. The three and fourth quarter GDP growth rate is basically flat at around 9.3%. The fourth quarter may also rebound slightly on the basis of the 3 quarter, and the risk of the "hard landing" of the whole economy is very small.
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