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Difficulties And Changes In Macroeconomic Regulation And Control

2011/7/21 8:53:00 31

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Macroeconomic Regulation And Control Is Difficult

After the release of the macroeconomic data in the first half of the year, academia and financial media have diverse views. They have different views on the future trend of China's economy and the orientation of macroeconomic regulation and control policy.

Authoritative media think, "these disputes reflect the complicated situation of China's economy from one aspect."

The author believes that the current economic situation facing China is indeed very complicated, but it is not that the overall economy is running a big problem, but after entering the pition period, the deep-seated institutional and structural contradictions are highlighted, so that the general sense of the situation is obvious.

Macro-control

In a dilemma, or even a "difficult" situation, only by actively promoting reform can it be easy for the hard ones.

The concept of macroeconomics came out of Cairns Te.

After the two World War, Western governments generally adopted Keynes's theory to intervene in the macro economy, that is, the operation of the total economic volume.

Since the 70s of last century, because of Keynes's theory can not effectively deal with the problem of "stagflation", the monetary school has gained momentum.

Although the monetarist school opposes the government's intervention in the economy, the Western governments that believe in this school theory have not stopped interfering in the macro-economy. They have only adopted more monetary policy means or delivered more macro adjustment tasks to relatively independent monetary authorities.

This macro intervention has played an important role in the Post-war Western countries' impact on easing economic fluctuations and adapting to the new productivity and development brought about by the new industry and revolution.

However, we believe that if we find the correct macro management theory and policy means, we will be able to make the market economy system run smoothly.

In theory, the most influential factions of Post-war Western economics are the N EW Institu-tional Econom ICs, besides the Keynes school and the monetary school.

According to this school, it is a misfortune to divide economics into two parts: macro and micro. Keynes's policy can not solve the symptoms of western economy. In some markets, the imbalance between supply and demand is often caused by the system.

They advocated reforming the society from system and structure.

Galbraith, the representative figure of the new institutional school, is not only a well written economist, but also served as a president of the American Economic Association, a government official and a close friend of the Kennedy family.

From the perspective of practice, the western countries in the post-war era are

market economy

In the big framework, we must constantly adjust the system and structure to adapt to the new development of productivity.

Germany and Japan were defeated and their economic system underwent major operations by the US occupation authorities.

The Americans themselves are constantly repeating and arguing, adjusting the economic system and structure, restricting the monopoly power to a certain extent, protecting the small and medium enterprises, improving the social welfare and consumption ability of the middle and lower classes, and forming a society with the middle class as the main body.

Without these systems and structural adjustments, it is hard to imagine what the western economy is now.

According to the statement made by the general economic division of the National Bureau of statistics, the current China

Overall economy

The operation is still "stable", neither overheating nor significant downward. The most prominent problem is inflation.

Many analysts believe that the current inflation is still in control, and the second half is expected to gradually decline.

Looking around the world's main market economies, such a situation is indeed commendable. What's wrong with the macroeconomic regulators?

It is precisely because of the complexity of the economic situation that it is difficult for regulators to start because of the institutional and structural contradictions encountered.

Taking pork prices as an example, over the past 30 years, China has seen six major cyclical fluctuations in pork prices, mostly related to defects in production, supply and marketing systems, and little to macroeconomic policy.

When it comes to this year's economic situation, people often emphasize how important it is to start the year 12th Five-Year.

The "12th Five-Year plan" did put forward some numerical indicators on the total economic volume. However, unlike the planned economy era, these indicators only have a reference value for guiding economic work.

Some of the requirements put forward in the plan on deepening reform and improving the socialist market economic system, though not specific quantitative indicators, can not be slack from the beginning year.