Macroeconomic Policies Should Remain Relatively Stable.

Positive changes in economic operation since the first half of the year

China's economic times: in the first half of this year, China's economic operation has maintained a sustained and rapid development trend. In your opinion, what are the new characteristics of the overall economic performance in the first half of the year?

Yu Bin: since the first half of this year

1. summer grain was reaped a good harvest, and its output increased by 2.5% over the same period last year.

In the first half of this year, the contribution of food prices to CPI rose by 2/3.

In the case of special disaster weather has a significant impact on the production of agricultural products (000061), a good harvest of summer grain is of great significance for ensuring the supply of agricultural products, stabilizing food prices and controlling CPI growth.

2. the income of urban and rural residents increased rapidly.

In the first half of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents increased by 7.6% and the per capita net income of rural residents increased by 13.7% in real terms.

On the one hand, the growth of residents' income is faster, which is conducive to expanding consumption and promoting economic growth to a track based on consumption expansion. On the other hand, the income growth of rural residents is much higher than that of cities and towns, which is conducive to narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents.

Above 3.6 month scale

4. the economic development in the central and western regions has accelerated significantly, which is conducive to narrowing the gap between the regional development and realizing the coordinated development of the regional economy.

In the first half of this year, the growth rate of industrial added value in the central and western regions was 5.4 and 4.9 percentage points faster than that in the eastern region, respectively. The growth rate of investment was 8.4 and 6.6 percentage points faster than that of the eastern region.

CPI rose by about 5% throughout the year, slightly higher.

China's economic times: CPI is quite noticeable in the first half of the year. Food prices have become the focus of attention in July. What do you think will happen to CPI in the second half of this year?

Yu Bin: at the end of last year, the central economic work conference and the "two sessions" at the beginning of this year determined the expected target: the consumer price increase was controlled at around 4%.

But this year, factors affecting prices have increased, the situation has become more complex, new changes have taken place in the pmission mechanism, and price increases and durations exceed expectations.

It is mainly manifested in the following aspects: first, because of the cumulative amount of money invested in the previous two years, the large scale of market liquidity, the structural change of currency flow, the obvious slowdown of the total volume of money supply growth and the tightening of credit scale, the inhibition of price rises in the short term has weakened.

Two, in recent years, wages in the manufacturing industry have risen, and gradually have been pmitted to services, farming, aquaculture and other fields. Labor costs have generally risen, and they have been reflected in various industries through price adjustment.

This is also the main reason for the sharp rise in non food prices this year.

Three, facing the rise of commodity prices in the international market, due to the acceleration of raw material inventory adjustment and the increase of labor and capital production factor prices, the digestion and absorption ability of upstream and downstream industries and circulation links has obviously declined.

In the first half of the year, CPI rose by 5.4%.

Judging from the trend of the second half of this year, the growth rate of M1 and M2 has dropped to a relatively low level. The monetary conditions for controlling price rise have improved significantly. The tail factor has reached the peak of 3.7 in June, and the downward trend is obvious after July. The impact of special weather on food prices is generally controllable, and the trend of excessive food prices has been curbed initially; commodity prices have dropped, and the driving effect of import factors on price rises has weakened.

If we can effectively control the impact of unexpected events and new price increases on prices, the price increase will drop month by month in the second half of the year.

CPI is expected to rise by 5% over the year, slightly higher than the expected target.

It is worth noting that pork production in the first half of this year dropped by only 0.5%, but pork prices rose by 57.1% in June, and meat and poultry products increased by 32.3%.

The price of live pigs and fresh meat has exceeded the high point in 2008, and the price of pig grain has exceeded 8: 1.

Considering the base effect, pork prices will decline slightly in the second half of the year, but will keep rising throughout the year.

The price of pork will only exceed 1 percentage points for the annual CPI increase.

In the process of price rising from 2007 to 2008, pork price increase is also an important driving factor.

Therefore, under the market conditions that scale farming is constantly improving and producers are more responsive to cost and price, it is necessary to seriously study the law of price fluctuation of agricultural products with a certain production cycle, and give full play to the role of relevant government departments in information pmission, guidance production and supply protection, so as to reduce the impact of price fluctuation on the general price level.

In addition, the price of most agricultural products is lower than that of the international market at present. With the continuous increase of production costs, the moderate price rise of agricultural products will normalize, and it will also pose a new challenge to the general level of stabilizing prices in the future.

Annual economic growth dropped by 1 percentage points over the previous year.

China Economic Times: in your opinion, what is the trend of economic growth this year?

Yu Bin: GDP grew by 9.7% in the first quarter of this year, 9.5% in the two quarter, and 9.6% in the first half.

Judging from the contribution of the three major demands, the final consumption will stimulate 4.6 percentage points, the capital formation will pull 5.1 percentage points, and the contribution of goods and services to net exports will be - 0. 1%.

In the second half of the year, from the growth trend of the three major demands, a slight decline in economic growth will continue, but in general, it will be in a normal and reasonable scope.

At present, the global economic growth is slowing down, which is a short term adjustment. The developed countries and the developing countries have greater probability to continue the "double track growth" pattern.

China's export growth is expected to drop slightly from the first half of the year to about 20%, and net exports to GDP will be reduced to about 2%.

In the first half of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12.1% in real terms, 3.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

At present, the employment situation in China is generally good. In the past two years, the rate of wage increase is relatively large, the exemption of personal income tax has increased, the coverage of social security has been expanded, the consumption ability of residents has been improved, the consumption intention has been improved, and the rate of decline in consumption growth is obviously lower than the actual drop in the total retail sales of consumer goods.

With the gradual emergence of the policy effect of real estate regulation and control, commercial real estate investment will continue to fall, but the construction of affordable housing can be multi-channel fundraising, and providing financial support for its planned promotion will make up for the market leading real estate investment shortfall.

Annual investment growth is expected to reach about 23%.

It is necessary to point out that the growth of infrastructure investment in the first half of the year is obviously lower than the average growth rate of investment in fixed assets, and the proportion of the investment is declining.

International experience shows that when a country's infrastructure investment growth slows down, its economic growth rate will also gradually decline.

Infrastructure investment in China has always been an important factor to support the rapid economic development. This slowdown is due to fluctuations arising from policy adjustment, or the decline in infrastructure investment potential in the medium and long term.

Based on the above analysis, it is estimated that the annual economic growth will drop by 1 percentage points over the previous year.

Macroeconomic policies should remain relatively stable.

China Economic Times: in the current economic situation, do we need to further adjust the macroeconomic policy of our country?

Yu Bin: at the beginning of this year's "two sessions" government work report, Premier Wen Jiabao stressed the need to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, improve pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness, deal with the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations, paying more attention to stabilizing the general price level and preventing large fluctuations in the economy.

Since the beginning of this year, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have taken price control as the primary objective of macroeconomic policies. A series of targeted measures have been adopted, and the policy effect has been gradually revealed by continuously raising the deposit reserve ratio, increasing interest rates and optimizing the structure of credit delivery.

In the absence of a marked increase in the new price increase factor, it is estimated that the June CPI rise of 6.4% should be the peak of the annual price increase, while the upward pressure on the second half of the year will gradually weaken, but the CPI increase will be slightly higher than the expected target.

Economic growth showed a slight downward trend, but the driving force for economic growth remained strong. The annual growth was in a normal and reasonable range.

From the above two aspects, we do not have the conditions to turn the macro-control policy at present and there is no need for further tightening.

Maintaining the relative stability of the existing macroeconomic policies and giving room for the gradual release of the policy effect should become the keynote of the next stage of macroeconomic regulation and control.

While paying close attention to price and economic growth, adjusting the economic structure is also one of the three objectives of this year's macroeconomic policy.

The moderate decline in current economic growth has created a good macro environment for structural adjustment.

Therefore, as the opening year of the year 12th Five-Year, we need to seize the opportune moment to push ahead with economic restructuring and strive to take substantive steps in changing the mode of economic development.

At the present stage, some enterprises are facing difficulties in production and operation because of rising production costs and tight funds.

While eliminating backward production capacity and enterprises lacking competitiveness, we should speed up the pace of mergers and acquisitions of key industries and dominant enterprises in line with market principles, vigorously promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure and the development of strategic emerging industries.

At the same time, we should plan and push forward reforms in related important fields according to the outstanding problems exposed in the current economic operation.