Growth Slowdown Slows The Raw Materials Market.

Pun Shuo

Industry situation touches raw material Market

Since the beginning of this year, China's national economy has maintained steady growth. However, with the increasing inflation pressure, the economic growth rate is slowing down.

The continuous increase in the prices of production factors and the shortage of external demand power have led to a marked decline in the growth rate of industrial production. Meanwhile, the continued tightening of credit policies has also affected the production activities of investment and industrial enterprises.

It is a proof that the growth rate of electricity consumption in textile industry has dropped to varying degrees over the same period last year.

This year, 1~4, textile industry, clothing and footwear manufacturing industry,

In the second half of this year, influenced by factors such as tight monetary policy, insufficient external demand and high overall price level, China's economy will enter a stage of accelerated adjustment and deceleration growth, and investment and export growth will continue to decline.

The overall domestic demand for clothing will continue to grow steadily, and the actual growth rate may slow down.

In the three quarter of this year, although domestic inflation pressure is expected to ease, the price will remain at a high level. Coupled with the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, the consumption sentiment of the domestic demand market will be affected, and the actual growth rate of consumption is expected to slow down.

From the perspective of monetary policy, this year, in order to recover liquidity and curb currency

Experts believe that the monetary policy will only fine tune in the second half of the year, and liquidity is still the focus of regulation.

The inflation pressure caused by monetary liquidity will be gradually alleviated with the early policy results.

The recovery of the world economy is slow as a whole. The price of international commodity prices is relatively stable in the second half of the year. Domestic import tariffs on some raw materials are reduced, and import inflationary pressure has been reduced.

Industrial enterprises, including textiles, have declined since the two quarter. Stock prices have increased and entered the compressed inventory stage. The reduction in demand will promote the downward trend of raw material prices, and gradually push the price of consumer goods down gradually through the industrial chain.

Early bullish encounter late brake

In just a month, cotton prices fell by more than 10 thousand yuan / ton from an unprecedented 30 thousand yuan / ton.

After several months of decline, the 1201 contract of the cotton futures contract of Zheng Shang has dropped to around 21500.

Meanwhile, the US Department of agriculture's July supply and demand report lowered global cotton production and consumption in 2011/2012, while raising futures inventories.

Among them, the reduction in output was mainly due to the decline in cotton production in the United States. The reduction in consumption came from the decline in cotton demand in China, India and Pakistan. On the one hand, the increase in final inventory was due to a reduction in global consumption over production. On the other hand, due to the cancellation of cotton export contracts in the US cotton market, the end of 2010/2011 inventory increased.

From the 6 and two months' reports in July, the end of last year's inventory increase in July was mainly due to a sharp reduction in consumer demand.

Because China's textile enterprises are overburdened, the number of US cotton procurement contracts has been cancelled more than the new contract volume, and the net contract volume of US cotton exports has maintained a negative contract state, mainly due to the decline in demand for cotton in textile enterprises.

According to the July 1st cotton reserve information center report, textile enterprises have no signs of improvement in their business situation, product inventory increases, cotton yarn and cotton prices continue to decline.

Because of inertia, the price of raw silk material since 2011 has been running at a high level.

Take the famous "silk town" in Wujiang as an example. Due to the stimulation of high cocoon prices last year, the enthusiasm of sericulture and sericulture has been improved, and spring planting has decreased significantly in the last few years.

This year, the cocoon production reached 45 kilograms, still more than the annual level, and the cocoon quality is good, the silk factory reflects the fresh cocoon removal rate of more than 70%.

Last year, domestic cocoon silk prices continued to rise, reaching a historic high of 400 thousand / ton at the end of last year.

The cocoon price of Wujiang's spring cocoons has gone up and down this year. The price has risen from 1920 yuan /50 kilograms to 2250 yuan /50 kilograms a day, but it is 100 yuan /50 kilograms lower than Zhejiang.

At the end of last year, there were only 4 reeling factories in Wujiang. In the first half of this year, only 3 enterprises were running normally because of the high price of cocoon silk, and the other one had stopped production.

According to statistics, the reeling production in the first half of this year was 329.3 tons, compared with 392.3 tons in the same period last year, 83.9% of the same period last year.

Wujiang Filature Factory white factory silk price in the first half of this year averaged 408 thousand and 900 yuan / ton, an increase of 46.92% over the same period.

In the first half of the year, the average price of the white silk in the first quarter was 393 thousand yuan / ton, the average price in the two quarter was 422 thousand and 800 yuan / ton, and the two quarter was 7.58% higher than that in the first quarter.

At the end of the first quarter, the price of 5A grade white factory silk in the market was between 400 thousand and 410 thousand yuan / ton, 20 thousand yuan higher than that at the end of last year.

In mid June, the price of white silk remained stable at 400 thousand to 410 thousand yuan per ton.

Beginning in late June, the price of white silk futures in Jiaxing cocoon silk market has declined, and the price of ton silk is 380 thousand to 390 thousand yuan, which is 20 thousand yuan / ton lower than that in mid June.

In the first ten days of July, the price of white silk fell again to 360 thousand to 380 thousand yuan / ton.

After the spring cocoon purchase this year, the local silk reeling plant is not optimistic.

In the interview, the reporter learned that cocoon silk production itself has the characteristics of long production process and more funds.

The price of cocoon silk has always been at a high level since the end of last year, making many silk weaving enterprises feel heavy pressure.

5A grade white factory silk in January is 390 thousand to 400 thousand yuan / ton, and by the end of March has risen to 418 thousand yuan / ton, entered the second quarter has dropped slightly.

Enterprises with strong capital strength can also resist, and enterprises that borrow more from banks can hardly support them.

In addition, workers' wages rose by 15% to 20%, equipment spare parts prices rose by about 10%, interest on bank loans rose, and the profit margins of enterprises continued to shrink.

The person in charge of the enterprise told reporters that the price of cocoon silk has been maintained at a high level. Although the price of cocoon is going up recently, the price of raw silk and silk has not shown signs of pulling, but it has come down.

In particular, this year's international market demand is not strong. Therefore, the price of raw silk rising all the year round will be difficult to continue this year.

Silk prices and silk prices will not rise, and the days of silk producers will be even more sad.

Judging from the recent comprehensive market, the current domestic inflation pressure and interest rate increase are still strong, and import tariff reduction and other factors have caused the haze of the textile market to continue to suffer from multiple pressures. At present, there is a serious phenomenon of limiting production and shutting down in the downstream production sectors. The enterprises are limited in orders, mostly small and short ones, because the consumption is weak, and the enterprises in some parts of the country are also limited in power restriction and shut-down. Therefore, the demand for raw materials is reduced, and there is a lack of purchasing enthusiasm.

Enterprises cautiously purchase and speed up adjustment

In raw materials, wool is relatively stable in price.

In June 30th, New Zealand Wool Services International Ltd held the first auction of the new wool season, and the price of wool was stable.

Of the 6000 bales of wool provided in the northern island, 92% were traded.

Wool prices rose overall in the first quarter of this year. As of March 31st, domestic and Australian crude oil prices were priced at about 56750 yuan / ton, up about 15950 yuan / ton compared with mid January, or 39.09%. Australian wool self comb bars kept rising during the Spring Festival. As of March 31st, domestic Australian wool self comb strips were quoted at 116080 yuan / ton, up by 27080 yuan / ton, or 30.43%, compared with the beginning of January.

The main factor contributing to the further rise in wool prices is the shortage of supply.

At present, the "fear of high" sentiment in the domestic market is relatively strong, so the current enterprise procurement is very cautious, not easy to carry out a large number of procurement.

Affected by the current high raw material prices, the export situation of textile and garment enterprises is unprecedentedly severe. Once the export situation is unfavorable, enterprises will have the possibility of breaking up the capital chain.

In addition, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate several times this year. The market forecast that the interest rate will increase in the future or increase again, and the liquidity contraction will be very heavy. With the high price of wool, the downstream market will be under pressure and the stock will be high, the demand will be restrained.

Therefore, industry experts believe that in the second half of the year, how to change the price of wool should pay close attention to the influence of the central bank policy and exchange rate and other factors.

Reporters learned in the interview that in the volatile market of raw materials, enterprises are forced to accelerate the pace of adjustment so as to reduce market risks.

Some business executives say that enterprises pursue the profit maximization as their main business objective. When the cost of raw materials and the cost of labor and expenses are high enough to make profits, it is an inevitable choice to adjust their business ideas and product directions.

In Wujiang, a company was completely shut down in the first half of the year; two enterprises gradually eliminated shuttle looms and reduced the production of real silk; another company eliminated shuttle looms and purchased water jet looms to pform the chemical fiber Oxford cloth.

As of the first half of this year, the total number of shuttle looms eliminated was 544.

According to the director of Wujiang Silk Association, since late June, some enterprises have selected thin products to reduce the amount of silk and reduce the cost of raw materials.

The raw material situation in 2011 is extremely complex and changeable, and textile enterprises present a situation of accelerating pformation and upgrading in order to survive and develop. The whole textile industry chain will enter a new round.