Sources Said That The Two Or Three Line City Purchase Will Not Be Rolled Out On A Large Scale.

　　 Home purchase restrictions The scope is expanding again, this time in the two or three line cities that are known as "price rises too fast".

In July 12th, Wen Jiabao chaired the executive meeting of the State Council, and pointed out that the two or three line cities that had risen too quickly must take necessary measures.

At the same time, because some two or three cities and even small and medium-sized cities housing prices rose too fast, the Ministry of housing has begun to investigate and analyze the causes, and will preliminarily draw up the next list of restricted cities.

In fact, as early as May, the rapid rise of housing prices and sales data in some two or three line cities has aroused the vigilance of policy-making and competent departments. Perhaps it is this part of the market data that directly led to the determination of the top "preventive measures".

SMEs are becoming more fearful than big companies. Two or three line City "restriction" means that the capital chain is more intense.

Central authorities fear local "relax vigilance"?

The "new country ten", which originated in April 2010, is the earliest administrative order of the Chinese government to regulate the use of "restricted purchase" in real estate.

Subsequently, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other real estate market began to implement the restriction. Some of the hotspots in non tier cities are gradually added to the restriction.

However, with the continuation of policy deduction, individual local governments began to relax the "restriction policy" slightly.

In March 2011, Hunan Changsha issued the rules on purchase orders, which only purchased small apartment units under 90 square meters. This practice of "limiting the size of the product" is regarded by some analysts as the relaxation of the purchase order.

Subsequently, Hainan, Dalian and other places were also released to relax the "restriction" news, and the relevant departments one by one.

Perhaps, the "relaxed vigilance" of these cities has led policymakers to worry about the continuity and sustainability of policies. People close to the Ministry of housing told the China Economic Weekly: "if such a national macro-control is not implemented, the central authorities may worry about the authority and seriousness of the policy." This person believes that this may become a central impetus to "purchase restriction" measures one of the driving forces.

If individual cities "relax vigilance" is not a common phenomenon, then the change of key data in the national urban real estate market will make the central authorities feel the pressure.

Su Xuejing, a real estate analyst with Changjiang Securities, believes that if the price rises by more than 5% to the beginning of the year is the standard statistics, according to the open data statistics, there are 14 cities with different sizes in the 100 sample cities with an increase of more than 5%. It believes that the effect of expanding the purchase to two or three tier cities remains to be seen.

Data from the Su Xuejing report show that the price of Weifang has not risen to 9.27% since the beginning of the year. Xuzhou, which has implemented the restriction policy, has risen to 7.22% from the beginning of this year. Luoyang also implemented the restriction, which rose 6.71% in the same period.

In the above 100 cities, 59 cities did not implement the restriction policy.

In line with the high price increase, the recent sales figures in the market have also risen. In the first half of this year, the total sales volume of commercial housing in the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China was 440 million square meters, an increase of 12.9% over the same period last year. It was 3.8% higher than 1 in May. And from 1 to May, the sales area increased by 2.8% from 1 to April. In the first half of this year, the residential sales area increased by 12.1% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 3.6% from 1 to May. In June, the total area of commercial housing sales was 114 million 870 thousand square meters, an increase of 24.7% over the same period last year. The sales area in May increased by 18.5% over the same period last year, and the total sales in May reached 454 billion 200 million yuan, up 36.2% over the same month.

A month ago, more than one market organization predicted that the country could extend the restriction policy to two or three tier cities.

After a brief negative growth in April, the sales and sales area in May showed a positive growth. Excluding the reasons for the low base last May, data show that after 3 months of policy digestion, the role of the restriction policy has been weakened, and some developers have promoted some of the real estate sales promotions, and also pushed the release of rigid demand in the market.

In May, "beautiful" industry data showed that after a long period of digestion, the role of the restriction policy was weakened at the micro implementation level.

As part of the developers in the sale of promotions, the buyers did not see a sharp fall in house prices, and the proportion of home buyers increased. This shows that buyers still have strong purchasing power. At present, the development and regulation of the real estate industry runs counter to it. The volume of sales data in May may be used to promote the purchase restriction policy.

Panic among small and medium developers

It has been reported that as early as mid June, the State Council and the Ministry of housing and housing have begun to consider the implementation of the restriction policy in the two or three line of some housing prices rising rapidly and the implementation of the restriction policy in small and medium-sized cities.

Zhu Zhongyi, vice president of the China Real Estate Association, told the China Economic Weekly: "I am not sure how the two or three tier cities should implement the restriction policy. But I think the Ministry of housing and other departments will discuss specific measures with the governments of individual cities whose prices are rising too fast. The restriction measures may be different for each city in the future. "

Another source close to the Ministry of housing told reporters: "in the two or three tier cities, the implementation of the restriction policy will certainly be treated differently. It is mainly aimed at several cities that have been rising too fast in recent years. The specific means and measures may still be the use of household registration threshold, tax and social security threshold and other measures to suit local conditions. However, I personally believe that the purchase will not be rolled out on a large scale. It will only take place in the cities that are in the lead. There is no timetable for specific implementation. "

In any case, small and medium-sized developers in these two or three tier cities have become more fearful.

During a visit by reporters in Tangshan City, Hebei, a real estate developer who asked for anonymity told China Economic Weekly: "if the purchase is restricted, the capital of enterprises may be relatively tight." As a resource-based city, Tangshan has its own uniqueness. "There are a large number of ceramic factory owners, iron and steel factory owners and so on. If there are more rich people, it will naturally push up housing prices in Tangshan. If Tangshan launched the restriction policy, Sale The volume will definitely drop.

In the urban and rural areas of Tangshan, a large number of construction projects have sprung up. Tangshan has a large number of heavy industries and manufacturing industries, and its huge number of employees will undoubtedly become potential consumers of these developments. However, it is said that some developers who have no reserve land or stock in Tangshan have been very anxious. Without bank credit and other reliable financing channels, they were unable to bid for land. And no sale of real estate means that they have no "rations" can be maintained.

Fan Xiaochong, vice president of sunshine 100, told reporters that once the restriction was extended to two or three line cities, the small and Medium Housing enterprises will face the embarrassment of "selling the real estate for sale and selling the mortgages down". Troubled SMEs may not collapse in the short term, but because they hold land, they will become the target of mergers and acquisitions of large enterprises.

Mao Daqing, general manager of Beijing branch, said in a media interview that if the purchase order was introduced to some two or three tier cities with Vanke in sale, Vanke would not consider reducing the price. "We will make a reasonable price according to the market."

This actually reflects a difference: large enterprises rely on reserve land and a large number of real estate projects can continue to resist the restriction policy, and small businesses with scarce land funds are almost powerless.

Zhang Hongguang, chief financial officer of Hongkong listed housing company, believes that the current proportion of investors in the three tier cities is not high, although the restriction will definitely strike sales, but it should not be decisive. The company will not change the strategy of diversifying investment, and will continue to develop two or three tier cities.

Fan Xiao rushed to "China Economic Weekly" commented: "the rapid rise of the two or three line cities' housing prices is not only the embodiment of the crowding out effect of the investment demand of the big cities, but also the most important factor is determined by the urbanization process of these cities. Once the property market is restricted, these workers will be restricted to enter these cities. " It can not be extended to the two or three tier cities because the restriction order is effective in big cities.

In July 21st, according to media reports, the Langfang city of Hebei released the target of controlling the price of the urban area this year. It is suggested that the price of newly built ordinary commodity housing should not exceed 9000 yuan per square meter, so as to squeeze the spillover bubble after the restriction of first tier cities.