The End Of "Discolored Cotton" Is Back To The Starting Point.

Cotton prices fell to low price data last year when the market opened.

In the next 20 days, cotton in Xiajin will enter the picking period. For cotton growers in Xu Derong, the price of cotton in the past year, such as "roller coaster", is still vivid. Last year, "seed sale" and seed cotton sold for only 3.3 yuan a kilogram, but then it unexpectedly increased rapidly. In November, the price of seed cotton was over 7 yuan, and it remained at a level of more than 6 yuan a year ago. But this year, cotton prices have gone down all the way, and now they are back to the low price of 3.5 yuan.

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The ups and downs of the market

New cotton is about to be picked, but Xu Derong, a cotton grower in Zhang Zhai village of the southern town of Xiajin County, is still worried. His son's family picked up 15 thousand pounds of cotton last year to restore it to his home. If the new cotton is added this year, the total number will be 30 thousand jin.

But the cotton price at the moment is really flattering. "When people come to the village to collect seed cotton, the highest bid is three yuan and six or seven yuan," Xu Derong thought the price was "a little cheap". "We get five yuan a pound, so we can make a profit."

Xu Derong did not say anything about it. He gave the reporter an account.

The cotton with the highest yield in the area can reach 800 Jin per mu, and the lowest yield is more than 300 Jin, and the vast majority yield is about 500 Jin.

The cost per mu is about 50 yuan, and the total amount of fertilizer and organic fertilizer needs about 450 yuan. Pesticides need about 20 yuan. The film needs about 30 yuan, and the cost is about 550 yuan.

Together with the labor cost of picking cotton, the average price is about 60 Fen yuan per catty, which is about 300 yuan per mu.

Count it down and grow one mu of cotton.

Reporters learned that in the more than 100 households in Zhang Zhai village, like Xu Derong's son's family, did not sell cotton, and thirty or forty households, in the year's "roller coaster" market, they from low prices until high prices, and from high prices until the low price, always did not give up.

In Xiajin, Henry, the chief cotton producer of the local cotton purchasing and processing enterprise, looks at the fact that cotton farmers do not want to sell cotton because they are "reluctant to give up". They all look forward to the higher price of the new cotton scale. "Our enterprises are going to harvest cotton, and some of the cotton farmers are selling tears," Henry said.

2, "the most vulnerable" yarn enterprises have a long vacation.

If the "roller coaster" quotes are given to cotton growers as "empty cheque", the downstream links on the cotton industry chain will be severely hit and lose confidence in the future market.

"Cotton prices fluctuate greatly, and the biggest impact is spinning enterprises. Spinning is the most vulnerable part of the chain from cotton to clothing."

Zhang Mengyou, chief of the Xiajin Private Economic Development Bureau, has positioned the spinning industry's ability to resist risks.

Tian Lianchen's run textile company is a spinning enterprise in Xiajin. In the past June, Tian Lian Chen gave his factory a month long holiday, and just returned to work in July.

Tian Lianchen told reporters that such signs have appeared since April of this year, "the market is not good, no one wants cotton yarn".

After returning to work, Tian Lian Chen adjusted the original production and produced half of the production line to produce low grade cotton yarn.

"In the past two years, I used Xinjiang cotton, imported cotton and other high-grade raw materials, cotton yarn can also sell the price, but now can not, can not consider profits, what grades of products can be sold, the production of what grade products."

Tian Lianchen said recently he began to use local cotton as raw material for spinning.

Before using high-grade cotton as raw material, the cotton yarn of run through textile can only be sold to 28 thousand to 29 thousand yuan per ton, and the cost of protection is far from 31 thousand yuan.

Though the price of low-grade cotton yarn is about 4000 yuan, it can be guaranteed.

For hundreds of cotton mills in Xiajin County, this year's market is "never encountered before", similar to the situation of run through textile is relatively common, especially in terms of limiting production, "some only start a class, good open two classes."

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"The key is demand."

Tian Lianchen said that a large part of Shandong's textile and clothing products were exported, but the demand from textile and garment enterprises is that the demand is extremely sluggish. The upstream spinning enterprises have hoarding a lot of cotton, but there is no market for their products, and they are in a dilemma. "Now they have money, but they dare not spend it".

3, cotton industry "shuffle" hidden worry

In Tian Lian Chen's view, this year's spinning industry is not optimistic.

And Yu Jun's concern is even more serious. According to his understanding, "there is no demand in the whole industry now. It may be impossible to spend any more than three years. This industry may reshuffle".

Tian Lianchen and Yu Fengjun's worries are not groundless.

Provincial commerce department's recent statistics show that in the first half of this year, our province's textile and clothing exports increased by 24.2%, but in fact, foreign trade dominated by textiles and garments showed an increasing monthly decline. Especially in June, the export trade showed a big decline. The total export volume of the province in June was 9 billion 700 million US dollars, which decreased by 1 billion 30 million US dollars from May to 9.6%.

"In the first half of the year, a large proportion of the export figures for textile and clothing were orders from the end of last year to the first two months of this year, and the order data in the last four or five months can only be shown in the next few months."

Zibo Zhoucun textile enterprise staff analysis, textile and garment enterprises, especially export oriented enterprises, facing greater inventory pressure, after inventory demand may rebound, but there is no support for rebound.

Professor Cao Liqian of Shandong Normal University analyzed that in the process of recovering the global economy, the purchase of textile and apparel by European and American customers was not active, coupled with the slow appreciation of RMB and cost pressures, which forced export orders to raise prices. But customers were hard to accept, and demand continued to fall. In addition, some European and American orders had shifted to Southeast Asian countries such as India. Many factors led to the decline of textile and clothing exports.

On this basis, rumors about the export tax rebate reduction have also been widely spread, and enterprises are more afraid to increase production.

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According to the experience of dealing with cotton growers all the year round, Yu Fengjun will decide the cotton planting orientation to a large extent in the next few days.

"In the past few years, cotton has been like gambling. If the market is better and more profitable, it will lose money if the market is bad. Many cotton growers have turned to grow grain. Not only is the subsidy high, the market is stable, but it is much safer than planting cotton."

The Dezhou cotton association responsible person recently said publicly that the entire cotton growing area in Dezhou last year was around 1 million 550 thousand mu, 30% less than in previous years.

The huge fluctuation of cotton prices in recent years has caused a great blow to the confidence of the whole industry.