Lu Guihua: Share Reform Has Not Changed The Behavior Of A Shares.

First financial daily: your research shows that

Lu Guihua: we simplify the market structure of the A share market. There are two kinds of institutional investors, namely, a large number of retail investors, dealers and insiders.

Institutional investors have greater financial strength and retail investors have less capital strength, so retail investors are more sensitive to risks.

The insiders also have the advantage of private information or information.

Zhuang Jia He

First, a small number of institutional investors with large capital and information advantages and a large number of retail investors coexist in the market structure, institutional investors can be sure of good news beforehand.

However, retail investors can indirectly infer whether the institution has favorable private information through the large single paction of the institution, that is, the agency enters or withdraws from the market, but the retail investors can not be sure that the institution that enters the market is an insider or a dealer.

The dealer can make use of this, disguise himself as an insider, and lure the retail investors into the Bureau.

Second, because the government is the holder of the state-owned shares, the higher the stock price is, the lower the financing cost of the state-owned shares. At the same time, the government is also the manager of the whole society. In the absence of the short market, the higher the stock price is, the higher the Book Welfare of the retail investors.

From any point of view, the stock market downturn, the government has the motivation to intervene in the stock market.

This institutional background and government preference imply that there is a certain possibility that stock prices will be at a high level in the future and manipulate the expectations of the makers to make use of retail investors.

Third, under the background of public ownership as the main body, the increment of personal wealth earned by the managers of public institutions is obviously higher than the increment of profits brought by the same amount of profits of their agencies. Therefore, managers of public institutions may establish "rat farm" and manipulate stock prices by private capital to gain private benefits.

This provides another explanation for the existence of the dealer.

Fourth, the ownership of Listed Companies in China is relatively concentrated, and large shareholders or their representatives participate in the management of Listed Companies in person. This means that large shareholders may have the advantage information, and large shareholders manipulate stocks through trading.

Daily: part of your research sample collection time is relatively early, for example, some sampling intervals before 2003.

In recent years, the A share market has undergone profound changes, especially the split share structure reform and a series of reforms in recent years, including the reform of the distribution system and the fight against insider trading. Do you think the current "A environment" has been changed?

Has there been any curb on the behavior of sitting? Can the present institutional environment effectively curb the behavior of sitting?

Lu Guihua: share reform has not changed the popular behavior in the A share market.

The positive correlation between behavior and earnings management and analyst recommendation shares still exists. The behavior of booksellers is still the main reason for explaining the high net rate and high P / E ratio of A stock market. The evidence of the operation mode of Zhuang stocks still exists, and the wealth distribution effect between dealers and retail investors still exists.

The split share structure reform only changed the circulation rights of the stock which had not been circulated before, and did not change the institutional background of the Chinese stock market makers.

We find that although the incremental explanation ability of the banker to stock price is less than the basic data, the manipulation of the dealer can still explain the stock price significantly.

Daily: you studied the institutional background and the way of sitting in the A share market, then how do you think you should change the situation?

Lu Guihua: it is urgent to strengthen the supervision of the behavior of sitting.

Sitting behavior undermines the efficiency of resource allocation in the A share market and leads to poverty and prosperity in the redistribution of wealth.

To strengthen the supervision of the behavior of sitting is also the need to ensure social equity and ensure social stability.

We can start with these aspects.

First, information on the change of shareholding structure of publicly listed companies increases information volume and frequency.

For example, the number of shareholders accounts, the number of shareholders held by each household, the number of shares held by a shareholder in a particular number of shares, the percentage of total capital stock, and the number of shares held by these accounts can be fully disclosed to the whole society and the frequency of publication is increased.

Second, change the investor structure of the A share market.

We have gradually established a market structure dominated by institutional investors such as investment funds and pension funds, strengthened education for retail investors, or set up professional investment institutions serving individual investors.

At the same time, we should strengthen the supervision of institutional investors, or guide institutional investors to establish scientific incentive institutions to eliminate the basis of "rat farm".

Third, the government should not affect the formation of market expectations, especially avoid affecting the formation of stock prices.

Just as the government's role in other markets, the main responsibility of the government is to make rules and maintain rules.

Fourth, we should strengthen the supervision of institutional investors, especially to strengthen the supervision of institutional investment pactions before and after the announcement of the company's restructuring and major investment and financing policies, so as to prevent institutional investors from manipulating the market benefits by using these information.

Fifth, we should strengthen supervision over stock market intermediaries such as CPA firms and investment advisory institutions.

Prevent CPA, analysts and institutional investors from collusion.

It is especially necessary to point out that the academic and media should avoid interfering with the market price formation mechanism for their own interests.