Part Of The Industry Reproduces Excess Capacity &Nbsp; Equal Displacement Replacement Is Difficult To Implement.

A steel factory in Western China is booming in recent years.

The factory was in 2007 by a steel plant in Shanghai. Stake in The acquisition was only 3 million tons at the time, and now it has reached 7 million tons, and is expected to reach 15 million tons in 2015.

The steel plant has attracted the attention of the industry. "The iron and steel plant in Shanghai originally planned to go into operation in Zhanjiang, but the development and Reform Commission did not approve it, so it did not dare to move. However, it was different in the West. The industry insider said.

It is understood that since the irregularities of the iron and steel project in Jiangsu in 2004, the national development and Reform Commission has only approved a few iron and steel projects, including the about 30000000 tons of the tofeidian project, which was moved by Shougang. But the whole Chinese steel production is far more than the national approval number.

In 2005, China's crude steel output was 3.52 million tons, and in 2010 it reached 6.2 billion tons. According to the capacity forecast of the first half of the year, the Ministry of industry and Commerce found that the steel output will be 690 million to 7 billion tons in 2011, increasing by 60 million to 70 million tons over the previous year. To this end, the steel industry has Surplus Pressure, "iron and steel industry will be in a high yield, low profit state under long-term operation".

Similarly, including cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and other industries, there is also the possibility of excessive deliverability. "In some areas, there has been a revival of backward production capacity, which has increased the pressure to eliminate backward work." The Ministry of industry and Commerce issued the first half of August 3rd's economic performance report.

The report pointed out that in the second half of the year, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other industries should continue to do well in the inspection of backward production capacity. At the same time, strict implementation of the new industry standards, speed up enterprise restructuring, and vigorously promote the industry. structure Adjustment.

Overall, however, due to the rapid economic development, the actual demand is still very large.

Cheng Xue Jun, Secretary General of Sichuan Cement Association, told reporters that Sichuan will eliminate 14 million tons of backward cement production capacity this year, but the annual output will reach 1.5 billion tons, an increase over 1.3 million tons last year. "Investment in infrastructure and housing has accelerated, stimulating demand for cement. In the elimination of small stoves, it is difficult to avoid bigger stoves, which makes the overall capacity increase.

Multi industry reproduction capacity surplus

The Ministry of industry and Commerce issued 2-3 industry reports on August, pointing out that China's steel, cement, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum, methanol, calcium carbide and other industries have been growing too fast in recent years, and there are some serious signs of excess.

For example, the first half of the year produced 380 million weight boxes of flat glass, an increase of 19.1% over the same period last year. 10 new flat glass production lines have been put into operation, the new capacity is 56 million 880 thousand weight boxes, the total output of flat glass is over 900 million weight boxes, and the production capacity has increased too fast.

The above capacity has broken through the prediction of the State Council in 2009. At that time, the state issued relevant suggestions to curb overcapacity and redundant construction in some industries. It pointed out that in 2009, 20 production lines were newly put into operation and under construction, and the total capacity of flat glass will exceed 800 million heavy containers.

Cement industry is also similar. In the first half of the year, the total output of cement was 9.5 million tons, an increase of 19.6% over the same period last year. The growth rate was 2.1 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year. In June, cement output was 1.98 billion tons, an increase of 19.9% over the same period last year. Record month output and growth rate are at a record high.

The Ministry of industry and information technology predicts that 150 cement production lines will be put into operation throughout the year, and the new capacity will reach 1.86 billion tons. "In the first half of this year, the cement industry investment growth slowed down compared with the previous year. The total capacity of cement production in some areas will be significantly overloaded, especially in the western region, and the pressure on the market will be increased." The department gave warning.

This rapid expansion of production capacity has also led to a sharp decline in the profits of the industry. Taking iron and steel as an example, the profits of the steel industry in the 1-5 months were 64 billion yuan, down 1.08% from the same period last year, and the profit margin of sales fell from 7.26% in 2007 to 2.42% this year, which is not as good as the bank deposit benchmark interest rate.

Xu Zhongbo, Professor of metallurgy School of University of Science and Technology Beijing, believes that the profitability of the steel industry is not good at present, which is related to large and medium sized enterprises, especially those with high added value. "It was right to board, but there were too many horses. On the contrary, the rebar used for construction is very good at present." He said.

Data show that in 1-5 months, the total profits of flat glass and aluminum smelters reached 1 billion 400 million yuan and 5 billion 220 million yuan respectively, representing a decrease of 55.9% and 23.6% compared with that of the previous year. The profit of the cement industry was 35 billion 200 million yuan, up 170% over the same period last year. The Ministry of industry and Commerce warned that investment in industries such as cement and electrolytic aluminum had shifted to the West.

However, as the economic growth in the western region is generally faster than that in the East and the central region, the Secretary General of the Sichuan cement association does not need to worry too much. At present, investment in infrastructure and affordable housing in the western region is still very fast. All these require rapid supply of cement and so on. "In the past, Sichuan has been spanferred to cement from other places, and at present, local cement can basically meet the needs of the whole province." He said.

In the first half of this year, Sichuan province produced 73 million 14 thousand and 700 tons of cement, an increase of 38.23% over the same period last year. For faster growth in the country. {page_break}

Equal displacement replacement is difficult to execute.

Although the Ministry of industry and Commerce has been stepping up efforts to eliminate backward production capacity, the total capacity is still expanding. How to solve the paradox of eliminating the backward production capacity and increasing the total capacity is a new problem.

Taking the cement industry as an example, the Ministry of industry and Commerce pointed out that the implementation of "advanced capacity replacement and backward production capacity is more difficult". According to the principle of equivalent or decrement displacement, the technical spanformation project of constructing new dry process cement clinker production line is not in place.

On the 11 th of July, the Ministry of industry and Commerce announced the elimination of backward production capacity in 18 industries nationwide. This involves 2255 enterprises, including 27 million 940 thousand tons of steelmaking, 619 thousand tons of electrolytic aluminum, 153 million 270 thousand tons of cement and 29 million 407 thousand weight boxes of flat glass.

A Ministry of industry told reporters that since 2009, the NDRC has stopped approving new projects for these industries, and the capacity expansion of these industries has been related to local unauthorized projects or expansion projects.

"On the one hand, there are big and small businesses, and some enterprises are making false elimination of backward production capacity. The Ministry of industry announced the list, which is to let the society supervise the elimination of water. Said the man.

Li Shijun, vice president of the China Iron and Steel Association, judged that if the "12th Five-Year" period was developed in an extensive way, the crude steel output in 2015 would reach 850 million -9 million tons.

This is a conservative figure. The reason is that crude steel output last year was 6.26 million tons. At present, steel production capacity of 60 million tons is under construction, and 20 million 500 thousand tons are being designed, and 22 million tons of steel are being planned. If all these projects are put into operation, it is estimated that the crude steel will be added to 1.03 million tons and the pig iron will be 1.1 million tons.

"In 12th Five-Year, there was no provincial GDP (gross domestic product), which was set at 7% in the whole country, with a low level of 8% and a high close to 15%." Li Shijun gave a judgement at a recent meeting that China's crude steel output could be higher in view of the higher planning of the local economy than that of the whole country. It is precisely because of this, Xu Zhongbo believes that the Ministry of industry believes that crude steel production this year will reach 690 million -7 million tons of figures, a normal situation, the actual situation may be higher.

Kong Xiangzhong, Secretary General of the China Cement Association, believes that cement production will still increase significantly this year. Considering that cement production last year was 18.67 million tons, the growth rate was 19.6% in the first half of this year. According to this conservative estimate, the annual output of cement is more than 21 million tons. "Overall, the profits of the cement industry are good. With the construction entering the peak season, the output of cement will increase in the second half of the year. The total output of the whole year will continue to rise with the development of the economy. He said.