Housing Prices Close To Supporting Limits: The Market Continues To Cool Down &Nbsp; The Current Turning Point Looms.

Is the inflection point of the property market really coming? With the tightening of regulation in the second half of the year, the "inflection point" has come back again, which seems to be true this time.

Groundless news, our reporter noted that the representative property market in many regions of the country had a sudden omen, and Huizhou country garden ten li Silver Beach has been selling a lot of markdowns. A large number of developers in Beijing have sold less than 30% of the contracted projects, and the leading enterprises in Shenzhen, Nanjing and Chongqing have increased the discount. It is worth noting that local regulation is also gradually increasing chips, such as the agency expects that the new Shanghai tax payment ban will be the largest number of buyers to suspend the purchase of 40%, such a situation will become more intense in the second half.

Since the beginning of last year, it has been continuously increasing. Real estate Regulation, many housing companies have been struggling for a year and a half. "For most enterprises, they are close to their limits. Once the limit is exceeded, the turning point will come." A person responsible for the late sale of a real estate in Shanghai admitted.

Qin Hong, deputy director of the policy research center of the Ministry of housing and housing, recently announced in public that the market is complex in the second half of the year. Enterprises should think about transformation and upgrading.

Market continues to cool down

It is understood that the recent hot spots in the property market cooling The most rapid is the concept of high-speed rail. According to Soufangwang statistics, after the Wenzhou motor car accident in July 23rd, the volume of turnover in the Kunshan property market was about 10%. Fall 。 Kunshan property market has increased by more than 10% in volume for two consecutive weeks.

Many people in the industry think that if the accident of EMU is to break the high speed hot bubble in the property market ahead of time, the risk of high-speed rail heating up for two or three years along the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is already great, and it is also an undisputable fact. Recently, the property market in many cities along the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway has begun to cool down. The impact of the motor vehicle accident itself is only a superficial factor. The long-term overheating of the market is the main reason.

High speed rail, there are more property market past scenery no longer. Luxury houses bear the brunt. Shanghai Soufangwang data monitoring center statistics, although last week, Shanghai's top luxury market transaction volume, but the average price of 50000 yuan / above the luxury house signed only 9 thousand square, a decrease of 25.8%. In the first half of the year, Shanghai's luxury market was dismal, and a large number of luxury property flats were low for a long time, and many projects continued to sell zero. There was no sign of improvement in this embarrassing situation.

In Beijing, statistics show that in 2011, the signing rate of small and medium-sized Housing enterprises and large housing enterprises was 28.5% and 55.5% respectively. As of July 31st, the number of projects with a turnover rate of less than 30% was 41, of which 24 were small and medium enterprises. Up to now, the inventory of small and medium-sized Housing enterprises in Beijing is about 69 thousand sets, with a monthly turnover of about 2500 sets. Without increasing the new market entry, small and medium enterprises will need 28 months to complete the sale of existing stocks.

The recent regulation and control of new policies by local governments will continue to affect the market trend. Yu Jun, manager of the real estate in twenty-first Century, Shanghai Ruifeng year Jia Bang Road branch manager, told reporters that because of the wide distribution of houses with low total price below 1 million 500 thousand of the plate, and the surrounding life supporting facilities were also more complete, the behavior of buying houses in other provinces and cities was more concentrated. But since last week Tax collection After the purchase ban was announced, about 40% of the customers who had recently seen the branch postponed the purchase, and about 10% of them could not be bought by the ban.

Judging from the current trend, in the second half of this year, with the expansion of the restriction and the promotion of affordable housing, the critical point of qualitative change in the regional property market is getting closer.

Housing enterprises support limit approaching

Whether or not the inflection point is real is one of the key factors.

China Fang Xin's latest report points out that since April, developers have been promoting sales, but most developers are still sticking to their teeth. Until July, under the pressure of new regulatory policies, many typical enterprises took the lead in reducing prices substantially and played a leading role in the local market. From August, the impact of this price adjustment is likely to further expand, and the July performance of Vanke, Biguiyuan, Longhu and other enterprises is likely to be a "starting gun" for the reduction of house prices.

Reporters noted that Shenzhen, Nanjing, Chongqing and other leading enterprises are taking the lead in increasing concessions. "The leading enterprises in these three cities take the lead in adjusting prices in a wide range. First, they are related to the urban background. Second, they have a great relationship with the strategic initiatives of enterprises." China Fang Xin analysts pointed out that the recent promotion of multi projects linked by Vanke and Longhu will play a role as a weathervane in the local market.

Behind the new round of price promotions, the pressure on the real estate enterprises, which has been supporting for a year and a half, is still increasing. This is evident in the ratings and concerns of international rating agencies on China's real estate listed companies.

In August 1st, the standard & Poor's rating service announced that the long-term corporate credit rating of coastal homes was lowered from "B" to "B-", and the credit rating of the Greater China region was lowered from "cnB+" to "cnB-", and the outlook for corporate credit rating was negative.

S & P estimates that the financial risk of coastal homes is relatively high and the leverage ratio will remain high in the next two years. Because the main projects of coastal homes are concentrated in cities that have implemented the restriction policy, such as Beijing, Shanghai and Dalian, the sales volume of contracts will be reduced in the next one to two years.

Judging by the company's status, it is representative of the latest rating of China's real estate listed companies by the analysis institutions, and the international institutions' concerns about the persistence of China's housing enterprises are increasing.

In the first half of 2011, the central bank released a statistical report on loans from financial institutions. In the first half of this year, real estate development loans increased by 209 billion 800 million yuan, or less than 232 billion 500 million yuan compared with the same period last year, a sharp decrease of 53% over the same period. The company raised 16463 yuan of self financing, an increase of 32.7% over the same period last year. The problem is that as the authorities concerned tighten up the financing channels such as real estate trusts, the prospect of self financing of housing companies in the second half of the year is equally worrying.

"The number of new plates in Shanghai has dropped by 40%, and the property market in August is difficult to make." Han Yu real estate in its report analysis, as of now, the stock market in Shanghai housing stock area of 7 million 660 thousand square meters, and the market supply exceeding demand has not been broken, with the increasing number of available housing sources, will further exacerbate the current situation of developers capital chain tension. {page_break}

Too many variables are the best policy?

The inflection point at the land level is also showing. The land and resources survey and Planning Institute of the Ministry of land and resources issued a survey in August 1st, indicating that the role and influence of various regulatory measures have gradually emerged in the first tier cities, leading to a decrease in the enthusiasm and willingness of developers.

The performance of the land market has directly exposed the "going concern" of many housing enterprises.

According to the China Index Research Institute, from 2011 to July, the total number of residential land in 130 cities nationwide was 189 million square meters, down 10.4% compared with the same period last year (31% in 2010). 1. In July, the turnover of residential and commercial land decreased by 33.9% and 47.3% respectively. The 130 cities across the country have introduced 230 million square meters of residential land, which has dropped by 13.7% compared with the same period last year, with a planned completion rate of only 30%.

"Policy uncertainties remain in the second half of the year. Seize the opportunity to sell quickly should be the only choice." Yang Chenqing, an analyst at China Fang Xin, bluntly pointed out that if we stand in the perspective of developers, although the current period is in a relatively neutral period of regulation and control policy, and from the recent market performance of key cities, trading volume has also stabilized and picked up, but the trend of future market should not be too optimistic, and the regulation cycle is far from the end. At such a time point, it is the safest choice to grasp the market opportunities and accelerate the sales return.

Xue Jianxiong, an analyst at China Fang Xin, thinks that if the part of the two or three line cities with too high prices rises too fast, if the strict policies such as restriction are imposed, the blow to the development enterprises will be heavy. By then, under the pressure of double sales volume, developers will increase the supply of new houses, or they will reduce prices by changing prices, and the hidden market turning point may suddenly erupt.