Us Downgrade Is Good For China'S Bond Market

Qin Juan and Guotai Junan bond trader Hu Da, 10 days in the face of the card, said that the S & P lowered the symbolic value of the US credit rating higher than the actual significance. Bond market It's good.

Qin Juan believes that the S & P's downgrade of the US credit rating has led to the recent turmoil in the global financial market, and the domestic bond market has benefited slightly from it. The second day after the downgrade of the United States and the United States, the bond market rebounded the largest, and the amount was released. The first two days, though there were some rebounding, entered the August, which was better than that in July. There were also some rebounding, but the amount of rebound did not come out. Over the past few days, I think it may be that the funds are relatively loose on the one hand. On the other hand, the most basic fundamentals of bonds, that is, the growth rate of the economy is not as good as originally imagined. As a way to avoid risks, people may produce a re allocation of demand for bonds. Of course, the uncertainty inflation, although inflation is a new high, and is still within the expected, but the bond rebound in these days has not stopped, especially in the ten year treasury bonds, the rebound rate has not been suppressed because inflation has reached a new high.

Qin Juan said that these two days of bonds have been rebounding. In addition to some city investment bonds, urban and rural investment bonds at county level and below county level, this wave of rebound volume is relatively small, with little rebound. Others, especially the medium and long term interest rate products and short-term financing bills, and corporate debt and corporate bonds, have a slightly higher rating. AAA, AA+ or more have a relatively large rebound.

Hu Da said that S & P's downgrading of us credit rating is more symbolic than practical. America is not afraid of this. National debt He can print dollars at any time and anywhere to solve this problem. The United States remains the largest economy in the world. No matter how to reduce the rating, whether a country can repay its debts or not depends on its economic strength. And the US Treasury bonds have become a ruler and become a ruler of a global financial system. If we adjust the yardstick, it will not be of great significance to the whole economic system. Why? If it is one centimeter relative to the US Treasury bonds, and now China's national debt is two centimeters, and now it is hard to say that a centimeter is two centimeters, China's national debt will also be enlarged to four centimeters. That is to say, the US Treasury bond is a zero risk scale, so this reduction is of little practical significance. It created a confusion in the financial market and created an opportunity for us to enter.

After the downgrading of the US credit rating, there must be a channel for hedge funds, and some of these capital gains abroad are still seeking a higher capital profit. If you want to enter other markets, such as Chinese capital, will you consider where to enter? We should consider going back to China's capital market. First of all, the housing market has been caught, not allowed to sell. Entering the other two channels is nothing more than stock market and bond market, and the stock market is also ups and downs. Bond market Benefit should be a trend.