Textile And Apparel: "Debt Crisis In Europe And America" Has Limited Impact On Export Volume.

July before 2011

Main points of investment:

The export volume of textile and clothing increased from 1 to July in 2011, which is in line with our expectations.

According to statistics from the General Administration of customs, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 137 billion 719 million US dollars in 1-7 months in 2011, an increase of 25.60% over the same period last year.

Among them, the export of textiles was US $54 billion 603 million, an increase of 27.49% over the same period, and exports of clothing and accessories reached US $83 billion 116 million, up 24.39% over the same period last year.

The main reason for the substantial increase in export volume is due to the substantial increase in export prices, which is in line with our expectations.

With the decline of raw material prices in the two quarter, the contract price of export products will also gradually decline, which will affect the growth rate of export volume in the future.

As a result of the industrial chain factors, the growth rate of textile exports in July took the lead to slow down (in 2011 1 - July, textile exports grew by 27.37%, down 5.29 percentage points over the same period last year).

Although clothing export volume increased by 24.37%, up 6.92 percentage points over the same period last year, it was due to clothing.

Industrial chain advantage and "potato effect" will ensure export volume in the second half of the year, but price factors will lead to slower export growth.

In terms of textiles, as China's textile industry has a complete industrial chain, the production capacity of medium and high grade garments and textile fabrics is strong. Over the years, brand clothing companies from Europe and America have imported fabrics from China, and then processed into garments.

In terms of clothing, because domestic exports are still in the middle and low level in Europe and the United States and other countries, price is the biggest advantage of China's clothing exports. Although the price increases, foreign distributors still have big profits.

Cheap Chinese clothing is still the favorite of European and American residents.

Even in the period of financial crisis, the main products of domestic textile and clothing still maintained a large volume of exports, and the volume did not decrease. Therefore, in the future, we think that the volume of domestic export orders will not shrink much.

In the second half of this year, export products will decline in the case of raw material prices, which will slow the growth of export volume.

The "three shortage" of the industry will polarize the industry, and "order to large enterprises" will make the leading enterprises more interested in the quality of orders.

At present, there are "three wastes" in the textile and garment industry, namely, shortage of migrant workers, shortage of funds, and shortage of electricity. Most small and medium-sized enterprises with profit margins below 1% are in a predicament.

On the contrary, large enterprises, especially the leading companies in the fine molecular industry, have strong technology and brand advantages, and have strong new product development.

Advantageous resources will accelerate to large enterprises.

Orders are concentrated on large enterprises, and large enterprises' market discourse power is increased.

As far as the current situation is concerned, the large textile export enterprises generally reflect the good order in early 2011, and have made preparations for expanding production.

In addition, SMEs do not dare to take orders, large enterprises have larger order options, and order quality is valued by these enterprises.

Continue to focus on yarn, grey fabric and fabric leading enterprises.

Looking forward to 2011, we believe that domestic textile and apparel industry will be sold domestically.

Risk warning: future Renminbi