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The Differences Between The Three Major Rating Agencies Are Highlighted Again.

2011/8/18 11:59:00 25

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Differences Between The Three Rating Agencies

In the standard

Poole

When downgrading the US credit rating and being investigated by the US government, Fitch Ratings said 16, the US sovereign credit rating should still be AAA rating, and the rating outlook is stable.

The differences between the three international rating agencies on credit reliability of the US are once again highlighted.

Fitch affirms the US's long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer default rating (IDR) and the US Treasury bond rating of AAA. The US National Assessment limit is AAA, short term.

Foreign currency

The rating is F1+, and the long-term rating outlook is stable.

Fitch said in its statement that confirming the sovereign credit rating of the United States reflects the fact that the main foundation of the credibility of the United States has not been affected, that is, the United States occupies a crucial position in the global financial system, and the flexible, diversified and affluent American economy has provided the income base for it. The flexibility of currency and exchange rate has further enhanced the ability of the US economy to absorb and adapt to shocks.

But Fitch will reassess the rating decision by the end of the year.

Fitch said it would review its expectations of the US financial situation and the United States before the end of this year, based on the discussions of the Joint Select Committee.

Short-term

And the medium-term economic outlook.

Fitch warned that if the Joint Select Committee failed to agree on a deficit reduction of at least $1 trillion and 200 billion, if the economic recovery was not as good as expected, it would lead to a negative action on the US rating by Fitch's prediction of the medium and long term public debt in the US.

According to analysis, Fitch's most likely action is to downgrade the US rating outlook, which means that the US rating is likely to fall more than 50% within two years.

Fitch said in a statement that it would not exclude the possibility of downgrading the US rating directly from one level to another, but the possibility is low. Negative outlook usually indicates a possible downgrade within two years.

Moodie is in the middle position.

On the 8 th of this month, the agency confirmed the AAA credit rating of the United States. The outlook is negative, threatening the next two years or downgrading the same reason as Fitch if Congress fails to fully implement the 2 trillion and 100 billion dollar control plan or the economy is in recession.

However, Moodie's sister company Moodie analysis released a report on the 15 day. It is expected that the US GDP will grow by 2% in the second half of this year, and the economic growth rate in 2012 will be only higher than 3%.

In July, the analysis given by the company was in the second half of 2011 and the whole year of 2012.

increase

Both will reach 3.5%.

The report also pointed out that the possibility of a two recession in the next 12 months is 33%.

However, Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moodie analysis, believes that the economic base of the United States is very stable, and the most important problem is the crisis of confidence.

Reuters's analysis points out that in the wake of Fitch's very positive view of the United States, S & P has lowered its credit rating to an unprecedented isolation.

However, according to the Financial Times article, although the three rating agencies have different views on the potential for further deficit reduction in the US political system, they do not have much difference in the trajectory of US debt development.

The article also points out that it is beneficial for investors to make different ratings of the same rating object by different rating agencies, which is helpful in clarifying the different problems of a debtor.