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Explosive Growth Of Global Iron Ore Production Is Good For China

2011/8/18 11:56:00 42

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High volume

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The pace of mining and expansion of foreign mines has been stimulated, and the ore production capacity of foreign mining enterprises led by the three mines has recently witnessed explosive growth, and the situation of tight global supply of iron ore is expected to be reversed.

The latest research report released by the joint metal network on 17 shows that the iron ore suppliers headed by three mines are increasing substantially. It is estimated that the global iron ore production and export will increase rapidly in the next 5 years. In 2012, the output of iron ore will reach 22.8 billion tons in the world, and will reach 27 million tons by 2015.

mine

The degree of monopoly will be reduced and competition will intensify. The market will have a situation of oversupply.

According to the latest report, from 2011 to 2015, the existing mining companies in Australia have announced a larger expansion plan, and many new mines have been put into production. If the plan is implemented within 5 years, Australia's iron ore production will increase by 3.1 billion tons, or 7 million tons from the level of 4 million tons in 2010, that is, 70% increase in 5 years.

According to the expansion plan announced by Brazil's Vale, production capacity will reach up to 5 billion tons (including pellets) by 2015, increasing by 61% over the current 3.1 million tons level, with an average annual growth of 12%.

Not only that, new mines, including India, Africa and Southeast Asia, have begun to put into production and rapidly release their production capacity.

Statistics show that three companies including two Tuo and vale Valley produced 617 million 450 thousand tons of iron ore output in 2010, accounting for 61% of the global iron ore output. The three largest mining companies and India iron ore exports accounted for 72% of the world's total exports.

The report shows that the output of the three major mines shows that in 2011, the vale produced 339 million 500 thousand tons, Rio Tinto produced 194 million 900 thousand tons, and BHP Billiton produced 143 million 400 thousand tons, totaling 677 million 800 thousand tons. By 2013, the vale produced 449 million tons, Rio Tinto produced 245 million tons, and the production of 170 million tons of BHP and the total production of 864 million tons; in 2015, the production of 485 million tons of vale, the production of 290 million tons by Rio Tinto, and the production of 485 million tons by BHP Billiton, when the total output will reach the gross ton of capacity.

At the same time the surge in output of the three major mines is noteworthy, it is worth noting that according to the report, the output of iron ore in the world will reach 27 billion tons in 2015, while the output of the three mines will total 975 million tons, accounting for about 36% of the world's output.

It can be clearly seen that the share of the three mines in the global iron ore supply will decline, and its monopoly position is expected to change.

"Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years Hexi", just like many three years ago require steel mills to buy ore, in recent years, the situation of soaring iron ore prices will also be broken.

The authority of the China Steel Association said in an interview with the economic reference daily.

He told reporters that from 2001 to 2002, China's economy experienced a rapid growth process. A large number of infrastructure and real estate development made China's steel industry also get a rare development opportunity, and steel production capacity appeared explosive growth.

commodity

There has been a sharp increase in demand.

"The global demand for iron ore growth is far below the pace of expansion of the mining industry, which will directly lead to the end of the global demand for iron ore shortage. The supply of demand will be reversed in the future, and the price of iron ore will plummet."

Xu Lejiang, chairman of Baosteel Group, said in an interview with reporters.

Earlier, McKinsey pointed out that the compound growth rate of China's residential real estate demand for steel will fall from 9.4% in 2005 to 4% in 2010, down from 2010 to 2015.

At the same time, Citibank forecast that the iron ore market will have an excess supply of about 50 million tons in 2014. Even if vale reduced the target of iron ore production by 10% in 2015, the bank still believed that the oversupply of iron ore would occur in 2015.

In addition, Wu Rongqing, chief engineer of the Ministry of industry development of China Mining Federation, said that the iron ore project of "going out" signing and development of Chinese enterprises in recent years is expected to focus on releasing capacity from 2011 to 2012 and 2014 at the latest.

In this way, the proportion of the rights and interests mines will increase every year, from the current 0.9 billion tons to 2 billion tons.

At the same time, domestic ore production in 2015 is expected to reach 15 billion tons, when China's iron ore external dependency will drop to about 42%.

It is worth noting that iron ore imports and

Price

There has not been any unpopular scene in the past. The whole market is weak, and the imported iron ore is generally in the "price free market" situation.

In addition, China's imports of iron ore are becoming diversified, and the traditional position of the three mines is being challenged.

From January 2011 to May, China imported iron ore from 54 million 530 thousand countries, including Australia, Brazil, India and South Africa, to 54 million 530 thousand tons, a significant increase of 52.4% over the same period last year, accounting for 19.3% of total imports, while only 15.6% for 2010.